Sexual Imbalance

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Paul in Saudi
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Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Sun May 31, 2015 1:06 pm UTC

There is some grim reading in this week's The Economist. The main articles deal with the challenges facing men. It is well worth your time.

In one article they maintain that the shortage of men in Black America allows men to become cads, playing the field and making women less secure in their relationships. As a result, marriage breaks down. That seems reasonable. And it set my mind a-reeling.

What will (is?) the likely effect of the shortage of women in many Asian countries. An excess of unmarried men can not be a Good Thing. I have spent a few minutes on this thought. I suppose we might foresee;
Men will import women. In race-conscious Asia, the brides will first come from poor regions. Later, brides will come from nearby countries.
Men will leave to find women. You could imagine men in Africa or elsewhere to work for a few years might decide to just stay and settle down there.
Men will turn to sex crime at greater rates. I am thinking prositution and rape. (Why can't I spell this afternoon?)
Women will be able to be very choosey about who they marry.

What are your thoughts?

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby sardia » Sun May 31, 2015 9:13 pm UTC

Citations needed. That said, look at Mideast with regards to gender imbalance. Youll have a hard time separating out poverty and corruption from your variable.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby leady » Mon Jun 01, 2015 8:52 am UTC

War is typically the outcome in history and well the south china sea disputes and the disputes with Taiwan and Japan are all hot spots

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby AngrySquirrel » Mon Jun 01, 2015 12:48 pm UTC

Putting the fist into pacifist.

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Paul in Saudi
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:22 pm UTC

Yes, there is a series of four articles.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Mon Jun 01, 2015 3:23 pm UTC

(Double post, sorry)

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby aoeu » Mon Jun 01, 2015 5:02 pm UTC

A shortage of women is just the status quo. The sex ratio at birth is something like 1.05 men / 1 women. Most nations only end up with a majority of women because men die off quicker. In Mexico, the sex ratio shifts in age group 25-29, 40-44 in the US, 45-49 in France, 50-54 in Iran and the UK, 55-59 in Finland, 70-74 in China. You can look up these numbers here: http://www.census.gov/population/intern ... ateway.php

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Paul in Saudi
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Tue Jun 02, 2015 1:47 am UTC

Yes but we are talking about a massive imbalance. In China, in 1979 we saw 106:100. By 2010, it seems to be 118:100. This would seem to indicate that by 2030 about a quarter of all Chinese 30 year-old men will have never married. This is something quite new.

http://www.allgirlsallowed.org/gender-imbalance-china-statistics

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby leady » Tue Jun 02, 2015 9:19 am UTC

Oh I don't know - what is that statistic - something like historically only 40% of men passed on their genes vs 80% of women.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby PAstrychef » Tue Jun 02, 2015 11:03 am UTC

Given the size of the population in China, having a sizable percentage of their young men not reproduce is actually a good thing. One thing that has started happening is young women are being kidnapped and forced into marriage. If the scarcity gets too severe young women will be forced into a commodity status, with their attractiveness to wealthy men as the important issue in their lives. One thing I doubt will happen is the society that brought about the situation suddenly realizing that without girls the whole thing collapses, and embracing the value of females.
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby elasto » Tue Jun 02, 2015 12:01 pm UTC

One thing that caused the gender imbalance was the one-child policy. Given the choice, families would usually prefer a male heir for reasons we don't need to enumerate here.

Now the one-child policy has been largely relaxed, the stats will shift back to the historic and global norm.

PAstrychef wrote:One thing that has started happening is young women are being kidnapped and forced into marriage.

Have a citation for this getting worse? China is not Chechnya. I would expect the situation to be improving as education, wealth and female empowerment levels rise, and as China slowly moves from corrupt policing to a process based on equality before the law.

If the scarcity gets too severe young women will be forced into a commodity status, with their attractiveness to wealthy men as the important issue in their lives.

As with most poor nations, this has always been the case - one of the many reasons families have preferred male heirs to begin with. Again though, the answer is a growing educated and wealthy middle class, which China definitely has.

Paul in Saudi wrote:Men will turn to sex crime at greater rates. I am thinking prositution and rape.

Prostitution is already as common as can be. But, to be fair, there's hardly a shortage of willing workers in wealthy nations either.

I have no evidence that rape levels are on the rise though. Any citation for that? Rape tends to be a crime to do with asserting power, not relieving sexual frustration.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby PAstrychef » Tue Jun 02, 2015 2:21 pm UTC

Here is one article-coverage seems to have peaked in 2012, but I'm not sure the trouble stopped, or just stopped being reported.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011-12/03/content_14206548.htm
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby elasto » Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:20 pm UTC

The problem is that trafficking has increased world-wide, so it's difficult to know how much can be attributed to gender imbalance specifically.

Personally I think a big part of the increase is from gangs starting to organise and traffic on an industrial scale, realising the big profits to be made, with much lower risk compared to something like drugs. Another part of the increase could simply be down to a greater focus on the issue by the authorities.

eg. Trafficking has increased a lot into the UK also:

The number of people trafficked for slavery or other exploitation in the UK has risen sharply to more than 2,700, the National Crime Agency (NCA) says.
The rise includes people lured to the country after meeting people via online dating or job recruitment sites.

Overall, the agency says there has been a 22% jump in the number of identified suspected victims of trafficking between 2012 and 2013. The 2,744 suspected victims, thought to be the tip of the iceberg, include 602 children.

The NCA says there has been a surge in reports of sexually exploited children - from 38 to 128 - in the wake of high-profile abuses cases in Rotherham and elsewhere.

Investigators also found cases of adults forced into prostitution, labour exploitation, domestic servitude, or compelled to commit crimes such as making false benefit claims.

The NCA says victims were being trafficked from Eastern Europe on the expectation of legitimate work which never materialised. In some cases women travelled to the UK with men who they thought were their boyfriends - only to be coerced into prostitution. Some victims had initially responded to online dating sites or job adverts.

The NCA report adds: “There is limited information available to suggest that traffickers mark potential victims with tattoos, with various symbols signifying ownership or to show that a victim is over 18. Information also suggests that victims may be marked with numbers, but the meaning of these numbers is not known. Various sources indicate that tattoos are used globally to mark victims of trafficking for sexual exploitation by traffickers and pimps, but the extent to which this is used in the UK is not known.”

Liam Vernon, head of the NCA’s human trafficking team, says: "Put very simply, you brand cattle - and that's how traffickers view people, as a commodity to buy and sell. Human trafficking for the purposes of exploitation is an insidious and complex crime and much of the exploitation is hidden from view.”


link

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Paul in Saudi
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:58 am UTC

Someone upstream said there could be no increase in the sex industry as it is already very large. When women are in short supply and can marry desirable men, men richer then themselves, who would choose to sell themselves? As women become short in supply, and as demand for commercial sex increases, obviously the use of force would increase.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby elasto » Thu Jun 04, 2015 9:17 pm UTC

Why would you assume that would be the outcome rather than simply that each sex worker would become slightly busier?

You realise that one sex worker can service dozens of clients in a week, right?

(And just because there will be more men available for marrying per single women, it doesn't mean there will be more rich or desirable men... At least not meaningfully so. There's just not enough of a change in gender ratio for that.)

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Paul in Saudi
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Paul in Saudi » Fri Jun 05, 2015 2:27 am UTC

The problem with prostitution from a Libertarian point of view is that demand always exceeds supply. That is why there is so much human trafficking in the world now. An excess of men would just amplify this problem.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Diadem » Fri Jun 05, 2015 7:43 am UTC

elasto wrote:The problem is that trafficking has increased world-wide, so it's difficult to know how much can be attributed to gender imbalance specifically.

Personally I think a big part of the increase is from gangs starting to organise and traffic on an industrial scale, realising the big profits to be made, with much lower risk compared to something like drugs. Another part of the increase could simply be down to a greater focus on the issue by the authorities.

eg. Trafficking has increased a lot into the UK also:

The existence of a large scale trafficking industry is a myth, actually, and a very dangerous one at that. This is an excellent post about this issue. More sex workers get abused by anti-trafficking groups than by actual trafficking. All over the world, trafficking is used as an excuse to crack down on prostitution.

That's not to say that trafficking doesn't exist. But it's relatively rare. The overwhelming majority of sex workers work voluntarily. According to anti-trafficking groups, 70% of Dutch sex workers are victims of trafficking. According to the sex workers themselves, 86% is happy or very happy with their job, 92% never experienced any violence at work and 90% don't know anyone who is being forced. Clearly those trafficking numbers are hugely inflated. And if you look at how they arrived at that number, it is clearly a deliberate lie.
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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby leady » Fri Jun 05, 2015 8:52 am UTC

There was a sequence of raids across I think Birmingham a few years back to rescue all these trafficked women. From memory out of about 400 women questioned, not one was trafficked.

Its a myth, just like stranger drink spiking

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby elasto » Fri Jun 05, 2015 12:53 pm UTC

Oh, I don't disagree. You'll note that the figures I quoted, while sharply rising, were still relatively small.

Please note that when I talk about trafficking, sex workers are only a small part of that. The abuses being carried out in Qatar on workers there are another kind of trafficking; There's some serious money being coined out there on the back of virtual slaves. Another form of trafficking much in the news (in the UK at least) is traffickers of illegal immigrants. All highly lucrative, and nothing to do with sex work. And, it seems to me, becoming much more organised and industrial. But I could be wrong.

I also agree that, just like much (if not most) of the problems that come from drug use come from it being illegal and all the ramifications thereof (being controlled by criminals, no quality control, no health advice at the point of sale etc) - much (if not most) of the problems that come from prostitution are as a result of it being quasi to fully illegal.

Sure, very few sex workers positively love their jobs, but, historically, almost all jobs have sucked. Would you have loved being a coal miner a century ago? How many people, if they won the lottery tomorrow, would continue in their current job? Almost everyone does their job mainly for the money - but, with that proviso assumed, if Diadem's polls are to be believed, even for sex workers the work is not done unwillingly.

If it were fully legal, with healthcare and pensions and workers able to keep all the money they earned instead of others leeching most of the profits, it'd be an even more popular and lucrative career choice than it is currently.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby leady » Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:10 pm UTC

Your last point isn't true in practice - where prostitution is legalised its more popular yes, but the supply drives the price well down

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby elasto » Fri Jun 05, 2015 3:22 pm UTC

leady wrote:Your last point isn't true in practice - where prostitution is legalised its more popular yes, but the supply drives the price well down

I was talking profit, not price.

Profits can rise even if prices fall, so long as expenses fall also. eg. paying 75% of your income over to a pimp, getting robbed by a client without legal recourse, lost time through police harassment and having to continually move around, lost income through police grabbing cash as 'proceeds of crime' and so on.

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 05, 2015 4:11 pm UTC

Technically, smuggling people out of North Korea to their families is human trafficking as well....

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Re: Sexual Imbalance

Postby Adacore » Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:32 am UTC

On the subject of Korea, the gender imbalance is pretty stark here too, at least in rural areas. There's no legal one-child policy, of course, but a lot of families voluntarily decide to only have one child, since bringing up a child here (education especially) is so expensive. If people are only going to have one child, they tend to want sons, especially in the more conservative rural areas, which can lead to imbalances of 30-40%.

As a result, there are a large number of SE Asian "mail-order" brides in rural areas now, with various horror stories about their treatment. The government has put in a lot of policies recently to make it harder for people without relatively high income or savings to marry a foreigner, and requires that at least one partner is able to speak the other's language, to prevent the worst of the issues (women being trapped in slave-like marriages without enough income to support them, dependent on their husband for everything, unable to seek help because they don't speak Korean), but those policies of course have problems of their own.


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