Greek Crisis continues

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Carlington
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Carlington » Fri Aug 21, 2015 8:39 am UTC

Ideally, what I posted would be the case. Realistically, he's probably realised that this has been a horrendous failure, and is looking for an exit strategy before one is forced on him.
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Zamfir
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Zamfir » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:31 am UTC

What's the point of this? The Greek parliament approved the bailout package. He isn't even a year into his term. If he thinks the people support what he's doing he should just keep on carrying on leading the country.


Syriza had 149 PMs out of 300, plus 12 from a minor party to make the majority. His coalition did not support the package, he neede opposition votes for that. 25 MPs just left Syriza to form a new anti-bailout party. Presumably, tsipras knew that this was going to happen.

So, Tsipras can't govern anymore. Without elections, he would have to negotiate with at least two other parties to form a new majority government. If he holds elections, some centrist voters might move his way to make up the loss of the people who left his party.

It's a gamble, perhaps unwise. But note: if he is afraid of new elections, then his hypothetical new coalition partners would have him by the balls. At any time, they can collapse the government. That's not a stable situation to pass unpopular laws.

BattleMoose
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Aug 21, 2015 11:40 am UTC

Ah, that makes sense, from your previous post it sounded like he could just carry on.

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CorruptUser
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:30 pm UTC

What exactly could the creditors do to help Greece and thus themselves? Austerity is crippling Greece and is basically a devils deal, everyone knows it; the economy isn't going to magic itself back. It'd be nice to stamp out corruption, but Greece knows that every dollar saved from corruption is a dollar that simply disappears from the Greek economy entirely; better to have a grey market job than no job at all.

BattleMoose
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Aug 21, 2015 2:51 pm UTC

Greece was in a terrible situation. Without the bailouts, it would most likely be in a worse situation. Its hard to evaluate the consequences of a default but, it would be somewhere between terrible and abysmal.

Was there a course of action, in lending money, that would have made things better? I am not at all satisfied that there was. Certainly there was no body prepared to lend money without strings and that is extremely telling.

It won't get magically better, but given time things will improve. As I have been saying all along, some more debt forgiveness might be appropriate and nice.

Fundamentally, Greece couldn't afford the lifestyles that people were living and was borrowing to support it. People still want those lifestyles and it just isn't in the realm of reality.

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Vahir
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Vahir » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:09 pm UTC

BattleMoose wrote:Greece was in a terrible situation. Without the bailouts, it would most likely be in a worse situation. Its hard to evaluate the consequences of a default but, it would be somewhere between terrible and abysmal.

Was there a course of action, in lending money, that would have made things better? I am not at all satisfied that there was. Certainly there was no body prepared to lend money without strings and that is extremely telling.

It won't get magically better, but given time things will improve. As I have been saying all along, some more debt forgiveness might be appropriate and nice.

Fundamentally, Greece couldn't afford the lifestyles that people were living and was borrowing to support it. People still want those lifestyles and it just isn't in the realm of reality.


I don't suppose anyone has numbers for greek government spending per capita versus the spending of other european nations? It would be nice to have hard facts to comment on. (My own attempts to research this have gotten me nowhere in the past)

Chen
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Chen » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:32 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:I don't suppose anyone has numbers for greek government spending per capita versus the spending of other european nations? It would be nice to have hard facts to comment on. (My own attempts to research this have gotten me nowhere in the past)


I think someone had posted upthread it was roughly on par with other European nations. Problem is presumably their revenue is NOT on par with other nations and thus why they can't support the same level of spending.

Tyndmyr
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:46 pm UTC

Chen wrote:
Vahir wrote:I don't suppose anyone has numbers for greek government spending per capita versus the spending of other european nations? It would be nice to have hard facts to comment on. (My own attempts to research this have gotten me nowhere in the past)


I think someone had posted upthread it was roughly on par with other European nations. Problem is presumably their revenue is NOT on par with other nations and thus why they can't support the same level of spending.


Precisely. There's no magic number to chase, but you do want a rough balance between revenue and spending over the long term. You can get away with a degree of debt(and it can be quite a useful tool), but if your proportions get sufficiently out of wack, a reckoning is inevitible. And you really can't "fix" it without dealing with the underlying problem.

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LaserGuy
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby LaserGuy » Fri Aug 21, 2015 5:36 pm UTC

Vahir wrote:I don't suppose anyone has numbers for greek government spending per capita versus the spending of other european nations? It would be nice to have hard facts to comment on. (My own attempts to research this have gotten me nowhere in the past)


See here.

Andy9842
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Re: Greek Crisis continues

Postby Andy9842 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 7:41 am UTC

In most cases, the major reform (which is Greece needs) occurs only in a crisis, but all is well. Policy objectives of the single currency is a primary concern, if it comes to economic reasons. :arrow:


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