British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:35 pm UTC

sardia wrote:What's the latest polling or betting market say ?

No clear favourite. The polls have a small lean to Leave, on aggregate, on but with figures that would probably topple Cameron/Osbourne without necessarily requiring their successors to actually leave, especially with the inter-nation splits in the UK.

I don't use or endorse any bookie sites, but I suppose this one's as good as any for getting the info from people who are usually quite good at not losing large sums of money by their guesses, unlike their customers:
http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb ... Be%3F.html

Edit: for future reference, when that link changes/expires, current info is thus::
UK To Vote To Remain In The EU: 1/2
UK To Vote To Leave The EU: 13/8
England To Vote To Remain In The EU: 8/15
England To Vote To Leave The EU: 11/8
Scotland To Vote To Remain In The EU: 1/33
Scotland To Vote To Leave The EU: 10/1
Wales To Vote To Remain In The EU: 1/2
Wales To Vote To Leave The EU: 6/4
England to Vote Leave / Scotland to Vote Remain: 8/5

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby quantropy » Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:59 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:UK To Vote To Remain In The EU: 1/2
UK To Vote To Leave The EU: 13/8

Assuming these odds mean what I think they mean, that implies a probability of leaving of between 1/3 and 8/21 - so the bookies seem to think remain is significantly more likely.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:39 pm UTC

for your consumption
I don't know how well the sites touted (I consume a shockingly shockingly small amount of popular media)

but I found
https://fullfact.org/

to be fairly impartial

edit: forum search found this already posted in 'angry natterings' still it feels appropriate here
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:47 pm UTC

quantropy wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:UK To Vote To Remain In The EU: 1/2
UK To Vote To Leave The EU: 13/8

Assuming these odds mean what I think they mean, that implies a probability of leaving of between 1/3 and 8/21 - so the bookies seem to think remain is significantly more likely.

Ok, so I'm not au fait with odds, I was giving the headline info then (frankly) a list that I don't have gambler's understanding of... Let me work from first principles.
1/2 is 1 back (plus original stake) for every 2 bet. Bet £200 and win, that's £300 if won.
13/8 is 13+stake for evey 8. £200 becomes £375.
So those odds for two opposing 'players', each with £200 in the fight, results in:
Remain = £100 for bookie.
Leave = £25 for bookie.
(Except there's tax on that as well, I've no idea how that part works. I think you can choose 'before or after' or something, for some reason.)

But that assumes equal betting. It could be that this outlet got more Remain bets and is reflecting that in skewed odds so as to get into a better profitability area, by making Leave that bit more attractive and dulling Remain down, which they can only substantiate if they're inclined towards predicting Remain.

Nope, I'm just guessing there.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Thu Jun 16, 2016 3:56 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:13/8 is 13+stake for evey 8. £200 becomes £375.

Shouldn't that be £525?
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jun 16, 2016 4:13 pm UTC

HES wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:13/8 is 13+stake for evey 8. £200 becomes £375.

Shouldn't that be £525?

You're right. Did it in my head and made two errors (one might just have been a typo). Told you I wasn't any good with bookie odds.. ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby charliepanayi » Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:16 pm UTC

Awful news about MP Jo Cox :(
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:41 pm UTC

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jun 16, 2016 5:55 pm UTC

Already the kooks are coming out of the woodwork and making unfounded allegations. Yet another sign of the bad blood stirred up (on top of that one individual who comitted the act itself) by this whole question.

I was dreading the England/Wales football match outcome (pretty much the friendliest of rivalries possible, as it may have been) affecting the forthcoming result. I suppose (I hope) that's now put in perspective, but not for the better.

IMPORTANT EDIT: This is not an invitation to discuss such theories. I'm just lost for more appropriate words regarding what's happened.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 16, 2016 6:38 pm UTC

The majority of news websites are reporting the man shouted "Britain first" (Jo Cox was a Remain campaigner for those that didn't know), the BBC hasn't though. I wonder if the claim is on shaky grounds or if the BBC is avoiding reporting it for some other reason.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:14 pm UTC

Seems to have originated with the Telegraph, lotta copy-pasta going on.

The guy who was reported to have claimed it has now publicly claimed that no such words were shouted. http://beforeitsnews.com/eu/2016/06/eyewitness-quoted-says-did-not-hear-alleged-britain-first-shout-2606280.html

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby charliepanayi » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:27 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Seems to have originated with the Telegraph, lotta copy-pasta going on.

The guy who was reported to have claimed it has now publicly claimed that no such words were shouted. http://beforeitsnews.com/eu/2016/06/eyewitness-quoted-says-did-not-hear-alleged-britain-first-shout-2606280.html


While I think we should wait for confirmation on what exactly happened, I'm certainly not going to trust an article from Breitbart London that you have there.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:31 pm UTC

Ya, there's a reason I'm leaving it as 'reported' and 'claimed'. Don't claim to have any special insight here.

I presume BBC is waiting for things to shake out one way or the other. They strike me as slightly more cautious than other UK news agencies.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 16, 2016 8:26 pm UTC

The BBC is reporting it now: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-36550304

One eyewitness told the BBC they heard her attacker shout "put Britain first" at least twice beforehand.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:15 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:
"put Britain first"

There is an important distinction to be made between this phrase, and "Britain First" with a capital F.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:19 pm UTC

I was going to say that I hadn't seen anyone quote it with a capital F, but the Mail did.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Fractal_Tangent » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:46 pm UTC

Such sad news about Jo Cox.

Edit: Strangely classy for everyone to suspend campaigning. It is a nice touch.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jun 16, 2016 9:52 pm UTC

Fractal_Tangent wrote:Edit: Strangely classy for everyone to suspend campaigning. It is a nice touch.


I had that thought as well. Very classy indeed. The thought struck me that this probably wouldn't happen in the US, but I think the respectfulness is nice.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Thu Jun 16, 2016 10:56 pm UTC

even with the histrionics and increasingly unhinged rhetoric I really didn't think things had deteriorated to this point

edit: of course he seemingly had mental health problems so maybe they haven't
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Echo244 » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:58 am UTC

kingofdreams wrote:even with the histrionics and increasingly unhinged rhetoric I really didn't think things had deteriorated to this point

edit: of course he seemingly had mental health problems so maybe they haven't


Yes, mental health problems have been mentioned. But... yeah, I knew that this was the direction of travel, but not how far we had come. All the... hatred and poison, all the polarisation, divisiveness, on so many issues other than the EU referendum. Hell, look at what got threatened just over having women on bank notes.

I suspect that the next few days are going to be... more or less a ceasefire. I don't know how campaigning is going to restart. I do know that once it gets going, it'll be a low-key, polite affair, tiptoeing round the phrase reportedly used by the killer.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Jun 17, 2016 1:34 pm UTC

Ugh. The pro-brexit camp seem to be arguing this wasn't a political assassination now. The guy shouted "put Britain first" whilst killing an MP at her surgery, it was quite clearly 100% political. I understand they want to distance themselves from this (and rightly so) and that this guy had many views at major odds with Jo Cox's and that it's not clear which if those views or what combination motivated this but to deny it was a political act is absurd and and that amount of denial as after this tragedy seems disrespectfully defensive.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Echo244 » Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:28 pm UTC

Ugh, already? Christ.

Like I've said before, facts don't bother the Vote Leave camp as they're making an emotional appeal. The trouble with this is, it works against them here. The news is out there, we've all seen the witness saying "he said 'Britain first' or 'put Britain first'", the emotional link is made, and no matter how much they try to muddy the waters, there's nothing they can do to deny or rubbish or downplay this.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby SlyReaper » Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:21 pm UTC

The charge could just as easily be made that it's the pro-Remain camp cynically exploiting a senseless tragedy for political gain. Mud-slinging works both ways, so let's just... not.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby eSOANEM » Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:27 pm UTC

Hence why I'm not saying this was a brexit-motivated attack. Claiming such would indeed be cynical exploitation; denying any political motivation is contrary to the facts as we have them and prioritises brexit over the truth and the tragedy. If these people really cared they would acknowledge that this was a political assassination and condemn it.

This definitely isn't the whole of the brexit camp; many of them are behaving appropriately and the suspension of campaigning was definitely appropriate. Nonetheless, this defensiveness in the face of the facts is frankly disgusting.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby SlyReaper » Fri Jun 17, 2016 3:53 pm UTC

Oh I agree it was probably politically motivated. It was probably also motivated by the fact that he was mentally ill.

There's defensiveness, because the pro-Remain camp were quick to link the attack to Brexit. Before her body was even cold, the headlines and tweets were out saying she was killed by a Brexit supporter. Not that she was killed by a madman, killed by a Brexit supporter. That was the one detail of the killer they chose to shine a light on. That was in poor taste. So frankly, I can understand people's frustration at being tarred with the same brush as Jo Cox's killer.

And is anyone NOT condemning this man? Seems to me everyone rightly is.

#NotAllBrexiters, right?
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby commodorejohn » Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:14 pm UTC

Unfortunately, that's human nature for you.

Person I agree with does something horrible: "Let's not be hasty, there could be any number of other factors, this doesn't reflect on the issue we agree on at all!"
Person I disagree with does something horrible: "Clearly this resulted directly from the issue we disagree on, let's not bother looking at any other factors!"
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Vahir » Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:54 pm UTC

SlyReaper wrote:Oh I agree it was probably politically motivated. It was probably also motivated by the fact that he was mentally ill.

There's defensiveness, because the pro-Remain camp were quick to link the attack to Brexit. Before her body was even cold, the headlines and tweets were out saying she was killed by a Brexit supporter. Not that she was killed by a madman, killed by a Brexit supporter. That was the one detail of the killer they chose to shine a light on. That was in poor taste. So frankly, I can understand people's frustration at being tarred with the same brush as Jo Cox's killer.

And is anyone NOT condemning this man? Seems to me everyone rightly is.

#NotAllBrexiters, right?


Seems like the leave camp is bringing it up more than the remain one. Have any public Remain campaigners actually made political advantage of the murder yet?

That's a question, I can't tell from this side of the Atlantic.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jun 17, 2016 6:31 pm UTC

SlyReaper wrote:There's defensiveness, because the pro-Remain camp were quick to link the attack to Brexit.
The first reference I saw to the supposed alignment was in a vocally Leave-leaning publication, whilst the organisation often accused of over-supporting the Remain camp left that detail out of its reports for quite a while afterwards.

Mine is just one datum-point, doubtless as subject to Selective Perception as anyone else.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby sardia » Fri Jun 17, 2016 7:49 pm UTC

Why isn't this considered a terrorist attack? It's politically motivated and the goal is to cause fear in order to promote a political goal.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:14 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Why isn't this considered a terrorist attack? It's politically motivated and the goal is to cause fear in order to promote a political goal.


I mean, kind of? But assassination or murder are also accurate labels.

It does seem almost certainly political though, don't see the point in tap dancing around that, even if a large dose of crazy was also involved.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby SlyReaper » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:18 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:
SlyReaper wrote:There's defensiveness, because the pro-Remain camp were quick to link the attack to Brexit.
The first reference I saw to the supposed alignment was in a vocally Leave-leaning publication, whilst the organisation often accused of over-supporting the Remain camp left that detail out of its reports for quite a while afterwards.

Mine is just one datum-point, doubtless as subject to Selective Perception as anyone else.

You may be right, I didn't check who started it.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Dauric » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:25 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:
sardia wrote:Why isn't this considered a terrorist attack? It's politically motivated and the goal is to cause fear in order to promote a political goal.


I mean, kind of? But assassination or murder are also accurate labels.

It does seem almost certainly political though, don't see the point in tap dancing around that, even if a large dose of crazy was also involved.

Before 2001-9-11 I don't think that the label "Terrorism" would have even crossed our minds. It would have been "Murder",or maybe if someone was feeling really inspired while writing headlines; "Assassination".

Honestly I'm thinking that "Terrorism" is being vastly overused, at least it certainly is in the U.S. IMO "Terrorism" as a means of making a government or society change requires some sort of violent organization behind it, like the IRA, Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda, ISIS, etc. In order to inspire -lasting terror-, long enough to move politicians and voters, there needs to be the credible threat of repeated incidents. Lone gunmen, even ones "inspired" by other organizations don't represent a credible ongoing threat unless those organizations have a history of overtly violent actions.

If more gunmen show up shooting other political figures in the name of Britain First, then this last incident might get labeled "Terrorism" after the fact, but at present the threat is over with the gunman in custody, there's nothing to be terrorized over.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:28 pm UTC

Yeah. I mean, terrorism was a label used, at least, somewhat back then. But mostly for big events. Hijacking, etc.

It does feel like it's become used a lot nowadays. The organization thing, and a pattern of behavior make sense as a way of limiting it. If this dude is working with others(this is purely hypothetical, I doubt this is the case), it would be much more intimidating than if this is definitely the only event.

Assassination, etc seem useful as a way of speaking more precisely.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:34 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Why isn't this considered a terrorist attack? It's politically motivated and the goal is to cause fear in order to promote a political goal.
For right or wrong, I see it as just a random (or semi-random, if the MP was targetted for being an MP) act of madness, which may have had a political message tagged onto it, but it was just part of the messed up mind of the killer, not a million miles from "you looked at me funny" as a reason.

At least we (or a court-appointed psychologist) can ask him, outside of whatever hot blood he was in at the time. Until otherwise confirmed I'm also tending towards Orlando's perpetrator more as a ragequitting individual who decided to rave about a cause more as a deliberate provocation than as an accurate reflection of his original motives and plans. But we're not able to ask him, so it's harder to disentangle the mix of messages.

(But, TL;DR;, I don't see it as politically motivated in any coherent way, nor with any political goal as straightforward as any alleged statement. But YMMV.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:44 pm UTC

*shrug* It seems unlikely that someone would select an MP as a target for no political reason at all, and go on to shout "Britain first" or whatever.

They may be mixed up, but there's almost certainly SOME political sentiment in there.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Dauric » Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:57 pm UTC

For the Yanks in the audience (like me)"Britain First" is an ultra-right wing nationalist party (I found that out on NPR this morning).

That said, there's some debate as to whether he said it or not, and IIRC from one report the gunman himself is denying that he ever said anything like that.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby sardia » Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:26 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:Yeah. I mean, terrorism was a label used, at least, somewhat back then. But mostly for big events. Hijacking, etc.

It does feel like it's become used a lot nowadays. The organization thing, and a pattern of behavior make sense as a way of limiting it. If this dude is working with others(this is purely hypothetical, I doubt this is the case), it would be much more intimidating than if this is definitely the only event.

Assassination, etc seem useful as a way of speaking more precisely.

If that's your argument, are the Bundy ranchers terrorists? They have the organizational thing, a pattern of behavior, political goals, and lots of intimidation/property destruction.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:31 pm UTC

I think straight up killing people ranks significantly worse than minor property damage.

Let's not make the term so generic as to be entirely useless.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby sardia » Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:47 pm UTC

Tyndmyr wrote:I think straight up killing people ranks significantly worse than minor property damage.

Let's not make the term so generic as to be entirely useless.

So if they killed a person, they are a terrorist, but it has to be a group, with the pattern and all that. The group part seems tricky and too limiting. The Oklahoma bomber wasn't part of a group, unless you're tying together all the anti-federal groups out there.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:54 pm UTC

Well, the idea floated up thread is that the term is overused, and...that seems reasonable.

Historically, it was usually used more for large events. Specific groups(though not always), lots of deaths, that kind of thing. Not completely consistent, I agree, particularly with stuff like the Oklahoma City Bombing, which was definitely called terrorism. But that scored very high in terms of scale, which seems important. Calling minor things like vandalism "terrorism" seems off. Even if organized.


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