British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby eSOANEM » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:09 pm UTC

Also there's the fact that we've always had pencils in voting booths (ok, I don't know what it was a couple of centuries ago, but certainly in the vaguely relevant past).

Anyway, I have executed my democratic right now and am going to keep my fingers crossed until the results come out.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jun 23, 2016 3:35 pm UTC

eSOANEM wrote:Anyway, I have executed my democratic right now and am going to keep my fingers crossed until the results come out.
The cross is supposed to go in your chosen box, not on your fingers... ;)

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby elasto » Thu Jun 23, 2016 5:53 pm UTC

Echo244 wrote:James Gray MP's comment sounds like pre-emptive sour grapes but neither side can afford to play the normal Westminster game of "2% majority means our side gets EVERYTHING we wanted and the other side gets NOTHING because <drowned out by braying from both sides of the Commons>"

Oh, I think there's a good chance that this time that won't happen. I think there'll be a genuine recognition amongst both Remainers and the EU itself that enough is enough.

Actually, it might turn out to be the best possible result if Remain just scrape by - for those of us that believe that the best place to be is inside a reformed EU. Because it's not just the UK that has a growing nationalist sentiment - other nations could easily follow suit; I think we'll be able to wring out some genuinely meaningful changes off of the back of this.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby sardia » Thu Jun 23, 2016 6:17 pm UTC

Are you referring to improving EU governing structural changes or more money more local control changes?

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Angua » Thu Jun 23, 2016 7:54 pm UTC

#usepens is the stupidest thing I've ever heard of.

I've voted. It's always disappointing voting in England - they don't have any ink (for fingers, not complaining about pencils).
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:54 pm UTC

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 98466.html

Rain is heavily disrupting travel in London and surrounding area, making it hard for people to get to the polling stations by 10pm. London is probably mostly pro-Remain, this could make Brexit more likely.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Tyndmyr » Thu Jun 23, 2016 8:58 pm UTC

...for some reason, it breaks my mind that England has difficulty dealing with...rain.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Thu Jun 23, 2016 9:06 pm UTC

It's been raining all week, and trains have been shit all month, this is a surprise to nobody. I doubt it will have had any impact on the result.

Anyway, what's done is done. Should have some indication in about five hours.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Grop » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:34 pm UTC

Funny thing you guys would use pens or pencils. Here you would have to pick between yes or no papers, or possibly (depending on places) yes or no buttons.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 23, 2016 10:58 pm UTC

First results in on the BBC: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_r ... um/results

Leave: 823
Remain: 19,322

Gibraltar is the only area to declare so far, hence the... slight leaning towards remain.

EDIT: More results in, most notably Newcastle which voted 50.7% in favour of remain. This is going to be close.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:20 pm UTC

I knew I didnt like sunderland
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:35 pm UTC

Why couldn't they be more like Gibraltar.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Thu Jun 23, 2016 11:43 pm UTC

yes I think the fairest thing would have been to have extrapolated from the one data point and call the whole thing off
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:03 am UTC

HES wrote:I doubt it will have had any impact on the result.

And yet, turnout is reportedly lower than expected in London.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Mutex » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:11 am UTC

How much lower?

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby HES » Fri Jun 24, 2016 12:12 am UTC

No numbers yet
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:26 am UTC

lambeth
67% turnout ~79% remain
wandsworth
71% turnout ~75% remain

10 points over projections

maybe london and scotland should form a more perfect union, theres a beautiful irony in this alliance
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Xenomortis » Fri Jun 24, 2016 1:44 am UTC

England will break up into the old Kingdoms.
Mercia and Northumbria will ally in the face of Scottish aggression from the north and the threat posed by the united kingdoms of Wessex, Essex, and East Anglia.

Wales will continue to be neglected. The Cornish will seize the opportunity to declare independence, and then immediately run out of cash and turn to a pasty-based barter economy.

Also I'm very tired and should be in bed. But I'm still nervous - Remain have taken the lead for now, but it's by less than 100k votes (Leave were ahead by close to 200k at one point).
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Soupspoon » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:03 am UTC

When (like now, or at least a moment ago) it's 3,137,260 Leaving and 3,169,022 Remaining (32k, minus small-change, advantage, less than half a percentage-point), it's pretty clear it could be (without making assumptions about the likely natures of subregions we've yet to hear from, which the best analysts will surely be advisable sting for) pretty much anyone's game, still.

3,788,990 vs.3,776,470, now. ~50.1% Leave? 11.5k separation and 5.2k spoilt ballots.. Could end up "doing a Florida", potentially.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby ObsessoMom » Fri Jun 24, 2016 2:44 am UTC

I've been watching The Wall Street Journal's live coverage. Pretty interesting.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:19 am UTC

Sweet moderation. Heart of this nation. Desert us not. We are between the wars

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjUA3RU4B8E
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby CorruptUser » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:38 am UTC

Looks like Britain is out of the EU.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:41 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Looks like Britain is out of the EU.


It will be a long time still before they actually leave. But certainly looking like they will.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Vahir » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:44 am UTC

The current vote map from BBC:

Spoiler:
Image


Look at that yellow Scotland. Yeah, I don't think they're going to stay in the UK after this.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:50 am UTC

Any thoughts about the huge discrepancy between how Scotland voted and the rest of the UK?

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby kingofdreams » Fri Jun 24, 2016 3:59 am UTC

To be trite, the scapegoat for globalization in most of the uk is brussels, in scotland its london.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby sardia » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:17 am UTC

To be a bit selfish, this bodes poorly for the US general election.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby Xeio » Fri Jun 24, 2016 4:36 am UTC

Pound is down 10% so far... and markets are opening in Japan to 7% fall.

Today is going to be "interesting".

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:07 am UTC

Xeio wrote:Pound is down 10% so far... and markets are opening in Japan to 7% fall.

Today is going to be "interesting".


10 Year US Treasuries futures have dropped to 1.5% (down from 1.74% just yesterday). Futures market is looking very sour at the moment. I don't think this will be good.

Bond Yield is down, Stock Market is tanking hard. These are usually predictors of a major recession. I'm not an economist... but I know that much about the stock / bond market.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:11 am UTC

There's always a lot of movement in the markets after events like this. Doesn't really mean much and certainly doesn't signify a permanent change in how the economy will work. Its likely many if not all of these indicators will return to where they were and the media won't report on that nor are people likely to notice.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:20 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:There's always a lot of movement in the markets after events like this. Doesn't really mean much and certainly doesn't signify a permanent change in how the economy will work. Its likely many if not all of these indicators will return to where they were and the media won't report on that nor are people likely to notice.


Image

Its been only an hour or so. And its night-time.

This isn't "a lot of movement". This is "a metric fuck-ton of movement". Maybe some sanity will return to the market when most people wake up. Buying when everyone else is panic selling injects some rationality into the markets after all... but Asian markets are open and Nikkei is doing awful right now.

The British Pound is at a 30 year low.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:35 am UTC

I don't know what index that is, google finance doesn't recognise SPU6.

Either way its a 3.7% drop. The ASX has dropped by more than that in a day for seemingly no reason at all, Sept 28, 2015. Granted its not a full days worth of trading yet and it will be interesting to watch. But its far from unprecedented, yet.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:40 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:I don't know what index that is, google finance doesn't recognise SPU6.

Either way its a 3.7% drop. The ASX has dropped by more than that in a day for seemingly no reason at all, Sept 28, 2015. Granted its not a full days worth of trading yet and it will be interesting to watch. But its far from unprecedented, yet.


SPU6 is the S&P 500 futures. SPX (the actual S&P 500 index) closed at 2,113.32 (and notice that the futures are pretty close to SPX). Normally, we'd track the SPX index directly but US markets are closed. The best we got are futures (which trade all day and all night long, but are extremely expensive. Only very big banks trade it.)

With the SPU6 future down to 2000, we're looking at over a 5% drop in just an hour. By the morning when the laypeople wake up, expect panic selling to commence.

This event isn't a minor blip or hiccup with HFT doing crap. This is the Brexit. The future of the European Union just plunged into completely unknkown territory. This may be the harbinger of worse to come: Scotland barely managed to stay in UK just last year... this "Leave" vote may push Scotland to "leave" UK and rejoin EU.

Things are going to be chaotic in the near future. Not just in the days to come, but in the months as people try to figure out the extent of the fallout. Its only natural to sell off stocks in these sorts of conditions.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:47 am UTC

You may well be right.

To be able to track a stock, I need both the STOCK EXCHANGE and the TICKER. An example, ASX:XJO. Or NASDAQ:NDX.

Incidentally, the ASX, which has been open for the past 6 hours, has only dropped 3.2% and is plateauing.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:50 am UTC

Its not the ticker nor is it a stock. Its the future on an index.

Stock market is closed right now. You're not going to get any information right now from stock tickers.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:53 am UTC

I understand what a future is. I don't trade in futures, my knowledge on how to access the information is limited. I don't even know to which stock exchange you are referring. My complaint is that you haven't given me the information I need to access the chart you posted. Or a link. For all I know you could be making this up. I don't think you are but I want to access the information.

Incidentally, the ASX, which has been open for the past 6 hours, has only dropped 3.2% and is plateauing.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:58 am UTC

The chart was from a twitter-post from CNBC.

I think the S&P 500 e-mini future will work for now. Information available here: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity- ... dp500.html

Image

It looks like trading has been halted due to significant activity. We'll have to wait till the morning.
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:01 am UTC

This is where I give up. There are hundreds of stocks/futures with the term S&P 500 in them. I don't even know what country you are referring to let alone which stock exchange. Still cannot access the chart.

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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby KnightExemplar » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:06 am UTC

BattleMoose wrote:This is where I give up. There are hundreds of stocks/futures with the term S&P 500 in them. I don't even know what country you are referring to let alone which stock exchange. Still cannot access the chart.



Spoiler:
Image


Just a quickie sketch I made in MS Paint. Yeah, futures are confusing. Just look at Sep 2016, the soonest future contract. I'm using the futures market as a proxy for what will happen tomorrow morning.

S&P 500 is a major American Index. There are a ton of futures and funds that track the index. I'm using the e-mini Sep 2016 future on S&P 500 Index specifically... but you'll notice that the number here is very similar to the numbers up above (SPU6: a different future, a different ticker, but still tracks S&P500 basically)

-----------

Sorry for being American-specific here. :-( Its what I know and am comfortable with...
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Re: British EU referendum in June

Postby BattleMoose » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:15 am UTC

Spoiler:
KnightExemplar wrote:
BattleMoose wrote:This is where I give up. There are hundreds of stocks/futures with the term S&P 500 in them. I don't even know what country you are referring to let alone which stock exchange. Still cannot access the chart.


Just a quickie sketch I made in MS Paint. Yeah, futures are confusing. Just look at Sep 2016, the soonest future contract. I'm using the futures market as a proxy for what will happen tomorrow morning.

S&P 500 is a major American Index. There are a ton of futures and funds that track the index. I'm using the e-mini Sep 2016 future on S&P 500 Index specifically... but you'll notice that the number here is very similar to the numbers up above (SPU6: a different future, a different ticker, but still tracks S&P500 basically)

-----------

Sorry for being American-specific here. :-( Its what I know and am comfortable with...


I know how futures work. I have consistently been asking in which country and which stock exchange this specific future is traded on! But its fine, with the help of wikipedia and that E-mini S&P 500 is unique, this specific future is traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange So now at least I know what I am looking at and in a position to actually start a conversation but this took way too much effort.

Sorry for being American-specific here. Its what I know and am comfortable with...


I don't really mind that you are being American specific, I just wanted to know to which country you were referring to. S&P is a major international rating agency and has indexes on most stock exchanges around the world. And no, I don't know specifically to which S&P ticker relates to which stock exchange, which is why I was asking....


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