British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:57 am UTC

Diadem wrote:
Echo244 wrote:It's all a hideous mess and I completely don't understand why the MPs can't see what they've been doing. Unless they've only been reading the things written by their mates who blame everything on Corbyn.

But Corbyn is to blame for everything, so why wouldn't Labour MPs place the blame there?

Yes, many MPs hated him before this whole referendum, and they were looking for an excuse to get rid of him. But their current reason for trying to get rid of him is not just some excuse. He sabotaged what's probably the most important campaign for his party this century.


Sorry, but how did he do this? Also, how does this then apply to the few Labour MPs who campaigned in favour of Leave?

Diadem wrote:That's the most obvious and justified reason for a vote of no confidence I've ever seen in all my years of following politics. I mean, if that's not a reason for a vote of no confidence, what the fuck is?

And yes, technically, legally, he's not required to step down after a vote of no confidence. But that's some selfish bullshit right there. His refusal to step down is destroying the party, and there's no way he hasn't noticed that. Which means he doesn't give a fuck. Which is all the more reason to get rid of him post haste.


His refusal to step down appears to be a reflection of the fact that he won a first-round majority last time, and still commands the support of a lot of party members and constituency parties. Including Angela Eagle's, which makes things problematic for her. If Corbyn does step down, the Labour MPs are utterly determined to not let anyone like Corbyn on the ballot again. Heck, they only just lost a vote to allow Corbyn on this ballot in the first place. So Corbyn's supporters are determined for him to cling on because they know, for a fact, that if they don't, they'll be shut out by the parliamentary party, left unrepresented, and their votes taken for granted (see the comments along the lines of "put a peg on your nose and vote Labour anyway" from the Blair/Brown years).

I think the only positive way forward at this point is to recognise that the PLP wants to go one way, and a lot of the membership wants to go another, and to start gently, kindly disentangling the two in a manner that means the two parties can work together in coalition at some future point.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:16 am UTC

Diadem wrote:It would be entirely legal, ministers are regularly replaced halfway through, and there's no rule saying the PM is different, but it is just not done. If the PM resigns, the entire cabinet resigns.

Well a new PM means a new cabinet. We're going to see some familiar faces, sure, but also some new ones.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:44 pm UTC

At PMQs David Cameron told a touching story about the gay marriage legislation he introduced.

"I’ll never forget the day at Number 10 when someone who works very close to the front door said to me ‘I’m not that interested in politics, Mr Cameron, but because of something your lot have done, I’m able to marry the person I love this week’. There are many amazing moments in this job, but that was one of my favourites."

According to Pink News, Cameron omitted one detail from this story.

"A source close to the events told PinkNews that Mr Cameron might have airbrushed one detail from the story; the staffer’s comments actually brought the Prime Minister to tears as he was heading out to a meeting."

If times had been different, I think Cameron could have been a real progressive, reforming PM. After all, he was the one who told the conservative party they needed to 'stop banging on about Europe' - before he handed them the hammer to nail the coffin lid tight shut...

Because of his openness towards his own daliance with soft drugs, I really thought he could have brought in a sensible drugs policy. Really, he had a golden opportunity to when in coalition with the Lib Dems - he could have 'blamed' it on them... That was another missed opportunity though.

Ah well, we live in interesting times...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Angua » Wed Jul 13, 2016 5:14 pm UTC

UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

But, you know, the Remain campaign was purely scaremongering :roll:
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Fractal_Tangent » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:24 pm UTC

Can I say I called it? Because I called it.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:52 pm UTC

Cabinet positions are being slowly revealed, and Boris Johnson is Foreign Secretary.
Eh... not sure what I think of that.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby charliepanayi » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:58 pm UTC

Any my hatred for this government just went up a few more notches.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Wed Jul 13, 2016 6:59 pm UTC

You're kiddi... you're not. Holy fuck, the UK is going to be relegated to the status of international joke in about 6 minutes.

I mean, yes, he's a Brexiter who can take the blame for all the Brexit consequences. But, fuck. I mean, fuck.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Angua » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:00 pm UTC

FFS was my thought when reading that choice headline.

We are going to hell in a handbasket that the tories are swinging and skipping merrily with.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:18 pm UTC

Angua wrote:FFS was my thought when reading that choice headline.

We are going to hell in a handbasket that the tories are swinging and skipping merrily with.


Worst thing is, they really think they're making things better. And when things do not magically improve, they will find someone to blame and punish...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby kingofdreams » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:19 pm UTC

Angua wrote:UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears

But, you know, the Remain campaign was purely scaremongering :roll:


as in much of what are gradually becoming our formerly joint institutions there is a touch of spite/personal advantage but then I guess thats academia for you
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Wed Jul 13, 2016 7:43 pm UTC

I don't think Boris is "that" crazy a choice. I'm not surprised to see him in cabinet and it's the "obvious" office (if a high one).
I'm tempted to read this as an indication as to the sort of EU exit deal May is aiming for - Boris seemed to be for a "softer" exit. Of course, the "Brexit" office has yet to be announced.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:01 pm UTC

Boris was arguing for cake and eating it, not a softer exit. His delusional buffoonery is suitable for public consumption but absolutely not for negotiating with our former partners in Europe.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Wed Jul 13, 2016 9:07 pm UTC

I seem to remember it was what Boris said in the days after the Brexit vote that made Gove stand for leader and stab Boris in the back. Basically it sounded like he would accept free movement of people in order to keep the single market. Johnson isn't actually a buffoon anyway, it's an act he switches on when he needs to appeal to voters. I don't think he's actually delusional at all.

EDIT: Also, David Davis is the Brexit secretary, so I don't think Johnson will have anything to do with it anyway.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby GloriousAlligator » Wed Jul 13, 2016 11:54 pm UTC

Xenomortis wrote:I don't think Boris is "that" crazy a choice. I'm not surprised to see him in cabinet and it's the "obvious" office (if a high one).
I'm tempted to read this as an indication as to the sort of EU exit deal May is aiming for - Boris seemed to be for a "softer" exit. Of course, the "Brexit" office has yet to be announced.


Boris' Brexit was not only soft, but delusional... and he's the one who hired that bus, in the first place.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:55 am UTC

Theory: Boris engineered the effective discrediting of his backstabber Gove (and maybe more) upon the promise that May (or whoever, but Leadson's climbdown might well have also been anticipated/engineered in advance) gets him a top job. He is astute enough, behind his over-emphasised bluff exterior, to realise that his way to leadership was already barred by 'ally' Gove, andvperhaps even before the result, May had been keptmneutral-enough so that when (not if) Cameron stepped down gracefully she would get behind-the-scenes support against Eurosceptic and Europhilic opponents, alike, and bring 'good old bulletproof Boris' officially to the cabinet table for a future attempt at stepping up to the plate.

Ok, so it is involves more backroom conspiracies than I'm normally used to accepting the possibility of, but it's an answer as to why on earth this event happened this way...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Xenomortis » Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:00 am UTC

David Davis' has shared some of his views on Brexit here: http://www.conservativehome.com/platfor ... itain.html
TL:DR - he's not a trade expert and is a little hopelessly optimistic, but I think likely to concede free movement for free trade.

There will be some fighting between Boris and Davis as they seek jurisdiction over things, but I don't think it'll be major.

Soupspoon wrote:Ok, so it is involves more backroom conspiracies than I'm normally used to accepting the possibility of, but it's an answer as to why on earth this event happened this way...

Eh... Boris was the poster child for the exit camp. This puts a Brexiter in one of the big offices (PM, Chancellor, and Home Sec were all Remainers), hopefully placating that side of the party whilst not having someone "extreme".
I'm cautiously optimistic for how this will play out. I don't think this is an apocalyptic scenario - Boris is not the face of Britain (that's the PM), and in diplomacy, he'll have the "guidance" of the Civil Service.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby HES » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:21 pm UTC

Of all the people May could have fired, Jeremy Cunt remains Health Secretary.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:22 pm UTC

Indeed. The junior doctors must be delighted.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Thu Jul 14, 2016 12:44 pm UTC

Hoo fuck. Removing him was an absolute no-brainer. Keeping him in place reminds me somewhat of May's attitude towards the Police Federation - "Reform or we will reform you". Caring not a jot about the other side and exercising whatever power is available regardless of the consequences, in order to get one's way, heedless of whether it's a good idea or not.

Which... makes me not want to be here. So much is about to get fucked up by her trying to force things into her way of thinking, not just the NHS.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Thu Jul 14, 2016 2:21 pm UTC

Johnson in the foreign office might just be a masterstroke. Davis is in charge of Brexit negotiations; Fox is handling international trade; The MoD and the PM herself will manage actual military expeditions; Johnson is left with... little but adding a bit of showbiz to the UK on the world stage - assuming he can avoid insulting any more world leaders with references to sex with animals that is...

Also, maybe she felt she couldn't ignore both Johnson and Gove, and chose something of the lesser of two evils - even though I think Gove is probably the more intelligent and capable man.

David Davis is an excellent choice to lead Brexit; Intelligent and highly principled without being ideological. While he won't be able to lead us into the promised land, he should be pragmatic enough to salvage something from this mess.

I concur the disappointment with Hunt remaining in place. It was a good opportunity to make a clean break from past mistakes. I agree that it's a bad early sign.

No real opinion on the other appointments.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby charliepanayi » Thu Jul 14, 2016 4:53 pm UTC

I heard a suggestion that Health was offered to someone else (or maybe multiple people even) and they didn't want to touch it, so they just kept Hunt in the end.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Angua » Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:01 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Indeed. The junior doctors must be delighted.
We were so happy for about an hour.

Apparently he's been boasting about that on twitter.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Thu Jul 14, 2016 7:53 pm UTC

charliepanayi wrote:I heard a suggestion that Health was offered to someone else (or maybe multiple people even) and they didn't want to touch it, so they just kept Hunt in the end.

That actually sounds plausible. Except surely she could have found someone...

The world reacts to Boris Johnson's appointment
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Diadem » Thu Jul 14, 2016 9:32 pm UTC


Why the hell is he refusing to answer that question?
"How do you feel about being appointed foreign secretary" is not exactly a gotcha question. Or an unexpected one. It's one of those chances for politicians to give a nice-sounding but meaningless soundbite. Every politician loves that.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:32 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:

Why the hell is he refusing to answer that question?
"How do you feel about being appointed foreign secretary" is not exactly a gotcha question. Or an unexpected one. It's one of those chances for politicians to give a nice-sounding but meaningless soundbite. Every politician loves that.

Spoiler:
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Mutex » Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:34 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:

Why the hell is he refusing to answer that question?
"How do you feel about being appointed foreign secretary" is not exactly a gotcha question. Or an unexpected one. It's one of those chances for politicians to give a nice-sounding but meaningless soundbite. Every politician loves that.

He was unable to find his car even when it was the only thing he was doing, never mind trying to talk at the same time.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Grop » Thu Jul 14, 2016 10:40 pm UTC

Would that mean he was drunk or something?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Angua » Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:09 am UTC

This keeps getting worse and worse.

May shuts down climate change department - merges into business and energy.

It's taking a lot of strength to resist the tempation to change the update in the title to 'Mayhem ensures'
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Angua » Fri Jul 15, 2016 7:13 am UTC

Angua wrote:This keeps getting worse and worse.

May shuts down climate change department - merges into business and energy.

It's taking a lot of strength to resist the tempation to change the update in the title to 'Mayhem ensues'
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby HES » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:18 am UTC

Angua wrote:It's taking a lot of strength to resist the tempation to change the update in the title to 'Mayhem ensures'

It would certainly be an accurate update. The current title is out of date now anyway...
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Alder » Fri Jul 15, 2016 9:52 am UTC

HES wrote:
Angua wrote:It's taking a lot of strength to resist the tempation to change the update in the title to 'Mayhem ensures'

It would certainly be an accurate update. The current title is out of date now anyway...

I've been finding it an interesting thread to follow, perhaps something more generic *would* be useful if folk want to continue the conversation?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Tobias » Fri Jul 15, 2016 2:19 pm UTC

Labour party has been up to some interesting stuff lately:

- Banned (temporarily) all CLP meetings, or at least any kind of meeting that could result in a vote of no confidence against MPs.
- Banned new members from joining the labour party, becoming supporters, or becoming affiliates until after the election
- Made this ban retroactive, applying it to everyone who joined in the last six months (despite every single source you could join through advertising that you should join so you could vote in the next leadership election), although I think you might be able to pay an increased fee to vote anyway under certain conditions
- Anyone who joined at a discounted rate will have to pay an additional 25 pound fee to vote in the leadership election
- Disbanded at least one CLP that is pro-Corbyn, replacing them with a proper PLP-supporting committee. (I've heard the disbanding was due anyway, so not quite as bad as it sounds)
- Unite union has issues a call for a motion and stated supported for forced mandatory reselection of MPs in response to the NEC invalidating their last six months of affiliate status for members.
- Angela Eagle's CLP ignored the meeting ban, met anyway, and held a vote of no confidence in her. The result was somewhere around 50 to 8 in favour of "no confidence". So she's technically still an MP only through the NEC deciding that democracy doesn't count for a while.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:02 am UTC

Seems to be getting worse too, with the two 'unity candidates' now seemingly fighting amongst themselves.

The Labour party has been engulfed by a fresh bout of infighting as the camps of the two potential “unity candidates” set to fight Jeremy Corbyn for the leadership embarked on their own war of words.

On the eve of a pivotal week for the future of the party, one MP supporting Angela Eagle accused rival Owen Smith of using “sneaky tactics” to manoeuvre himself into being the sole challenger.

Meanwhile, a senior MP supporting Smith claimed there was an overwhelming consensus that only one candidate should emerge, and warned that currently supportive MPs would not give Eagle their nomination if she did not swiftly recognise the situation.

“Angela needs to be very careful,” said the source. “It is not a question of who deserves to be leader; it is about the best possible candidate to beat Jeremy.”

The row blew up following Smith’s public declaration in a BBC interview on Friday that Corbyn should be presented with just one challenger. The formal window for MPs to declare their support for a leadership candidate starts on Monday and finishes on Wednesday.

Smith suggested in his interview that either the deputy leader, Labour’s national executive committee or the parliamentary party could devise a process to whittle the two challengers down if they both had the required 51 nominations to go on the ballot paper.

However, sources close to Eagle immediately dismissed that suggestion, pointed out that the candidate who won the fewest nominations became leader last year and that she was “in it to win it”.

One angry MP backing Eagle described Smith’s suggestion as an attempt to “bully Angela into some sort of corner”.

He added: “Angela didn’t step aside for Jeremy and she isn’t going to do so for Owen. If he wants to stay on, it is a contest. Bring it on. Colleagues are sick of these sneaky tactics. They need to pipe down.”


If Corbyn wins, and I expect him to do so, it would not surprise me to see the party formally split - especially if the deselections start to flow.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Sun Jul 17, 2016 10:18 am UTC

It seems superfluous to edit further parody onto that which already upon Wikiquote is wrote:[the People's Front of Judea are breaking into Caesar's palace. However, they become distracted by the Campaign for a Free Galilee, a rival organisation with the same plan, and a fight breaks out]
Brian: People, we should be struggling together.
PFJ member: [in a headlock] We are!
Brian: No, we should be rising up against the common enemy.
All: The Judean People's Front?!
Brian: No no, the Romans!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:53 am UTC

One of the leading money managers in the City of London has said the fallout from Britain’s vote to leave the EU will be “horrible” and the Square Mile is still “slightly stunned” by the result.

Richard Buxton, the chief executive and head of UK equities at Old Mutual Global Investors (OMGI), which manages £26bn of funds on behalf of individual investors and institutions, said warnings from the pro-EU campaign about the impact of Brexit before the referendum were well placed.

“I don’t think there was doom-mongering, because it is absolutely going to be horrible,” he said. “Mark Carney’s speech [in which he warned of dangers of Brexit] was absolutely spot on. This is just really bad news.

“You can criticise the Brexit team for a) an utterly mendacious campaign and b) not expecting that they would really win, so never having a plan. I mean the whole thing is literally unbelievable. It is extraordinary how we have ended up where we are.”

Buxton has worked in investments for 31 years and is regarded as the City’s leading stock picker, alongside his rival Neil Woodford. Funds worth more than £1bn left Schroders and went into Old Mutual when Buxton moved between the two companies in 2013.

Brexit is not as immediately dangerous as the financial crisis in 2008, when, Buxton claimed, cashpoints were 30 minutes away from running out of money. However, he remains concerned.

“Unlike an election result, where ‘OK, it’s not great, but in five years time it can be reversed’, this is stupendously final,” he said. “I don’t always agree with Martin Wolf [the Financial Times columnist], but when he wrote the day after that this is probably the single worst event in British postwar history, yeah, I don’t disagree.

“In terms of the markets, you have seen this massive polarisation, literally 60%-70% share price differential within days, between British American Tobacco [that went up due to the weakness of sterling against the dollar] and a housebuilder [that went down]. That is without precedent.”

With Theresa May in place as prime minister and Philip Hammond as chancellor, the City is focusing on what policies the new government might pursue. Hammond, Buxton said, has “walked into one of the most unusual economic environments I have known in my 30-year investment career”.

“I am pretty sure that the government will, in the autumn statement, do some fiscal weakening, such as reducing stamp duty on housing transactions, cutting petrol taxes to offset the increase that will come from the weaker currency,” Buxton said. “The bigger question is: are they bolder? Do they go ‘right, well we are in a different world, if we can borrow at a ludicrously low rates through extensive debt issuance, then let’s do so, specifically to invest either directly or alongside private investors in infrastructure projects’.

“We could resurface [the] M1 [motorway], we have a clear need for more gas-fired electricity generational plants. The private sector is not stepping up and doing any of this, unsurprisingly, so lets do some funding, some guarantees, make things attractive.

“It will be interesting whether they do that. But clearly even just the former measures, let alone the latter, mean the budget deficit is going to be swinging out again. Now, that, to my way of thinking, is why sterling is weak and could weaken further, to be honest. Already it [the deficit] wasn’t coming in quick enough, but it is going to start expanding.”

As for the response of his company, Buxton said OMGI would open a new office in Dublin if it needed to, but predicted that there is unlikely to be any “clarity” for two years as the UK negotiates to leave the EU.

“For now, the UK is still a member of Europe [the EU] and we can still do everything that we were doing,” he said.


link

---------------

Nicola Sturgeon has said she would consider a second referendum on Scottish independence in the first half of next year if necessary.
The first minister told the BBC that could happen if the UK government started the formal process of leaving the EU without Scotland's position being safeguarded.


The leader of Ireland’s main opposition party said he hopes Brexit will move Ireland closer to reunification.

Micheál Martin said a reunification referendum should be called if it becomes clear a majority want to see an end to Irish partition over the UK decision to leave the EU.

The Fianna Fáil leader added that Northern Ireland’s 56% majority vote to remain within the bloc could be a defining moment for the region. He made his remarks delivering the annual John Hume lecture at the MacGill Summer School in Glenties, Co Donegal.

“It may very well be that the decision of Northern Ireland to oppose the English-driven anti-EU UK majority is a defining moment in Northern politics,” he said.

“The remain vote may show people the need to rethink current arrangements. I hope it moves us towards majority support for unification, and if it does we should trigger a reunification referendum.

“However, at this moment the only evidence we have is that the majority of people in Northern Ireland want to maintain open borders and a single market with this jurisdiction, and beyond that with the rest of Europe.”

The 310-mile border that separates the island of Ireland is the only land border between the UK and the rest of the EU. Although heavily militarised with checkpoints and road closures during the Troubles, the peace process has opened up a seamless crossing between both jurisdictions.

Tens of thousands of people pass over the border every day on their way to work, for shopping or on day trips. Concerns about its status after the Brexit result – and whether free movement of people, goods and services will be affected – have dominated political debate since the poll.

During the referendum campaign, Theresa May indicated some form of border control would be required in Ireland if the UK voted to leave the EU. But just last week, Northern Ireland’s new secretary of state James Brokenshire insisted he does not want to see a hardening of the border.

Martin, a former foreign affairs minister whose party is leading opinion polls and whose backing is needed by the minority Fine Gael government, said any “new barriers between both parts of this island would potentially set us back decades”.


All just more Project Fearmongering though I'm sure.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-36819182
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... referendum

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Echo244 » Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:40 am UTC

elasto wrote:
Nicola Sturgeon has said she would consider a second referendum on Scottish independence in the first half of next year if necessary.
The first minister told the BBC that could happen if the UK government started the formal process of leaving the EU without Scotland's position being safeguarded.



Not to dismiss the other parts of that post, but this bit interests me. Sturgeon and May are playing nicely right now but you read the intent behind their words and it's clear there's an absolute impasse. Sturgeon will call a second independence referendum if the UK government invokes Article 50 (reading her words, it's clear that the only thing she'll accept is an "Except Scotland" part to the Article 50 declaration, the idea that May's concession of involvement in the Exit discussions is buying any favours is laughable). May won't invoke Article 50 until there's a common UK position for talks. And the EU won't negotiate on the basis of what-iffery, they're not going to do anything until Article 50 is invoked (and the UK is in a much weaker bargaining position).

It's all going to end in tears. And probably either an independent Scotland or an end to May's government as the Brexit crowd's demands are completely stalled.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby Soupspoon » Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:55 am UTC


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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby elasto » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:11 am UTC

Echo244 wrote:Not to dismiss the other parts of that post, but this bit interests me. Sturgeon and May are playing nicely right now but you read the intent behind their words and it's clear there's an absolute impasse. Sturgeon will call a second independence referendum if the UK government invokes Article 50 (reading her words, it's clear that the only thing she'll accept is an "Except Scotland" part to the Article 50 declaration, the idea that May's concession of involvement in the Exit discussions is buying any favours is laughable). May won't invoke Article 50 until there's a common UK position for talks. And the EU won't negotiate on the basis of what-iffery, they're not going to do anything until Article 50 is invoked (and the UK is in a much weaker bargaining position).

Oh, it's absolutely at an impasse: Scotland - both the people and the government - want to stay in the EU. England - both the people and the government - are committed to leaving. There's only one way this can end.

The SNP have no reason to compromise because by standing firm they'll eventually get everything they want - an independent Scotland in the EU. The Tories have no outs unless they backtrack on referendum promises which would appear to be electorally impossible.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, Cameron to resign by October]

Postby SlyReaper » Mon Jul 18, 2016 9:23 pm UTC


Every photo I've seen of Boris since the referendum, he's been a picture of misery.
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