Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails] [skullcracking!]

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Diadem » Sat Jul 16, 2016 10:10 pm UTC

It's pretty obvious that you can't investigate 2700 people in under 24 hours. You can't even create a list of people you dislike in such a short time. That list must have been there in advance. That doesn't necessarily mean that Erdogan knew a coup attempt was coming, it's totally plausible that he just had a list of political enemies lying around, but it is pretty damn obvious that most of those judges can't have had anything to do with the coup attempt.

Democracy in Turkey is over.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby sardia » Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:06 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:It's pretty obvious that you can't investigate 2700 people in under 24 hours. You can't even create a list of people you dislike in such a short time. That list must have been there in advance. That doesn't necessarily mean that Erdogan knew a coup attempt was coming, it's totally plausible that he just had a list of political enemies lying around, but it is pretty damn obvious that most of those judges can't have had anything to do with the coup attempt.

Democracy in Turkey is over.

Sure you can make up a list in 24 hours. Say Texas militants seize power, and secede. The first people to be executed would be Democrats. Bam, thousands of people with their names and addresses all wrapped in a convenient list. And don't kid yourself, Turkish Democracy was on the downswing for years. There's only a moderate change from a week ago.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Mambrino » Sat Jul 16, 2016 11:25 pm UTC

sardia wrote:There's only a moderate change from a week ago.


Maybe in effect, but surely this is more dramatic than a week ago, which was news about Erdogan being Erdogan, like some random internet commenter or journalist getting arrested or newspaper being closed.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Sun Jul 17, 2016 2:20 am UTC

sardia wrote:There's only a moderate change from a week ago.
A moderate change? In under 24 hours it went from a slow decline with constant opposition that is losing ground to Erdogan arresting thousands of people without justification, purging the judicial branch and the military and publicly discussing the reintroduction of the death penalty while his supporters are lynching and beheading people in the streets.

I can totally believe that he identified an opposition group in the military and backed them into a corner with the intent of forcing just such an ineffective coup. On the other hand I expect all the officers responsible for the coup attempt will never get to tell their version of the story so it isn't something that will ever be confirmed.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey?

Postby ucim » Sun Jul 17, 2016 3:27 am UTC

Diadem wrote:Thanks for the correction! I never consciously realized those were different words. Huh.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Zamfir » Sun Jul 17, 2016 5:51 am UTC

Mutex wrote:
pogrmman wrote:Look at how he's fired over 2700 judges now.


That set alarm bells ringing for me too. What can judges have to do with this?

In previous Turkish coups, the higher judges were usually a part of the coup.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby pogrmman » Sun Jul 17, 2016 12:18 pm UTC

Now, over 6000 people have been detained in Turkey, according to BBC. This apparently includes people high up in the military, high ranking judges, and more. They expect more people to be arrested, and may even re-implement the death penalty for some.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Mambrino » Sun Jul 17, 2016 8:07 pm UTC

The immediate unanimous support for the legal government looks like even wiser move by the opposition than I thought at the time. After special parliament session and joint declarations of unity, it's unlikely that their names end up on the arrest lists.

On the other hand, one wonders if how much meaningful opposition there is left after this.

For example, how keenly the judges left in their positions are going to examine the evidence against the arrested judges, when their cases finally end up in the court. How much judges there are in a country of Turkey's size, in total?

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby pogrmman » Sun Jul 17, 2016 9:01 pm UTC

I read somewhere that 36% of the judges were removed, meaning there are probably around 7000 total judges (before the purge).

You are definitely right, having the opposition agree with AKP is probably very smart of them.

It does make you wonder how much real political opposition is possible at this point though...

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey?

Postby Derek » Sun Jul 17, 2016 11:24 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:Well the coup's timing is certainly strange. Why would you attempt a coup when the president is out of the country? That pretty much guarantees that you can't capture him, and that he'll be able to rally support. Which is exactly what happened.

It's pretty common. When the ruler is out of the country it's harder for them to lead the government to oppose the coup.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey?

Postby KnightExemplar » Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:14 am UTC

Diadem wrote:Well the coup's timing is certainly strange. Why would you attempt a coup when the president is out of the country? That pretty much guarantees that you can't capture him, and that he'll be able to rally support. Which is exactly what happened.


The Coup was designed to work in a past era.

When the President is out of the country, you can cut-off communications from the president by simply having a military takeover of the phone lines, mass-media (aka: TV Stations), and closing off physical bridges. When the President is then unable to phone in a response, its over.

But today, the Turkish President just used Facetime to reestablish communications. Do note that Youtube, Twitter and Google were taken offline in Turkey. If the Coup failed at anything, it was recognizing that Facetime was also a threat for the Turkish President to also use.

Too many communication channels today to shutdown. The Coup attempt was well planned but as soon as the President managed to rally his supporters (through Facetime of all things), it was over.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Mambrino » Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:12 pm UTC

The Guardian recounts the official story

They have even an explanation (I presume this is it) why they have a list of names to be arrested:

The Guardian wrote:At 1am, officials say the police chief the city of Bursa arrested the local army commander, who possessed a 6-page list that included the names of designated judges and military officials who were to be appointed to various positions in the bureaucracy in the aftermath of the coup. Other pro-coup soldiers possessed lists of secure telephone lines to receive orders.


...astounding. He needs a list to arrest all these people? Then fine. He found a list.

The troubling thing is that particular bit feels quite like the kind of reasonable reasoning usually applied to refute amazingly improbable conspiracy theories: "nobody could keep that kind of thing secret, people are incompetent and secret would leak",e.g. someone writes down on paper a list of names of participants in secret alliance to overthrow the government and let it circulate. Sounds amazingly stupid in a way that could be true.

Which of course means nothing, because it could merely imply that president's office has just a very good press team with a knack for crafting a persuasive narrative.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby HES » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:48 pm UTC

Now teachers are on the arrest list.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:50 pm UTC

Cultural Revolution, when?

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Mambrino » Tue Jul 19, 2016 5:13 pm UTC

BBC wrote:More than 1,500 university deans have also been ordered to resign and the licences of 21,000 teachers working at private institutions revoked.

...

6,000 military personnel have been arrested, with more than two dozen generals awaiting trial
9,000 police officers have been sacked
Almost 3,000 judges have been suspended


This starts to feel like numbers game.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Diadem » Tue Jul 19, 2016 6:56 pm UTC

How many university deans does Turkey have? Surely 1500 must be nearly all of them? Unless 'dean' means something else there, which I suppose is possible, those terms are kind of country-dependent.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Dark567 » Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:54 pm UTC

Diadem wrote:How many university deans does Turkey have? Surely 1500 must be nearly all of them? Unless 'dean' means something else there, which I suppose is possible, those terms are kind of country-dependent.
It is every single one of them, all 1577.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jul 20, 2016 12:58 am UTC

If a coup wasn't justified before...

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby sardia » Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:43 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:If a coup wasn't justified before...

If you aim at the king, you best not miss.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby commodorejohn » Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:20 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:If a coup wasn't justified before...

I'm kind of curious whether this isn't going to be enough to spark a real coup. Though I don't know the nitty-gritty of their situation enough to know whether some people are correct in saying that the rest of the military has already been defanged.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:59 am UTC

The problem is that a large chunk of the people who would be involved in a coup have already exposed themselves and lost. There's a reason you are supposed to speak up for the socialists even if you aren't one.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Mambrino » Wed Jul 20, 2016 5:34 am UTC

Turkish navy ships still missing since attempted coup as it remains unclear which side admirals are on

The Independent wrote:Several Turkish navy ships are still unaccounted for, their commanders suspected to be among the plotters who sought to overthrow President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Admiral Veysel Kosele, the commander of the Turkish navy, has not been heard from since the failed coup on Friday, a source told The Times.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Jul 20, 2016 7:01 am UTC

CorruptUser wrote:If a coup wasn't justified before...
He's going after school teachers, I don't think anyone is left to oppose him at this point.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Lucrece » Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:21 am UTC

Even if popular demand wanted his overthrow, without the military you can't overthrow a dictator. Cuba and Venezuela ought to illustrate that point just fine.

You need the muscle to change government. Common citizens even if they land their hands on some weapons are no match for a well armed military force.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Jul 20, 2016 8:36 am UTC

Apparently all scientists (presumably including all university professors as well) were just barred from leaving Turkey. I can't seem to find an English source yet but the article I read was based on an announcement on Turkish national television.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Diadem » Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:06 am UTC

Dark567 wrote:
Diadem wrote:How many university deans does Turkey have? Surely 1500 must be nearly all of them? Unless 'dean' means something else there, which I suppose is possible, those terms are kind of country-dependent.
It is every single one of them, all 1577.

You sure?

That would mean that Turkey effectively abolished higher education overnight. Surely even Erdogan isn't insane enough to do that?
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Jul 20, 2016 9:39 am UTC

Yes, it is all of them. Combined with today's ban on travel for academics and scientists and the temporary suspension on all university exchange programs, higher education has been effectively suspended in the medium term.

Edit: And an English source that reports on the travel ban for academics.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby ObsessoMom » Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:26 pm UTC

I hate RT, which is Putin's propaganda machine. Here's a more reputable source for the second story.

[Edited to say: Sorry, I forgot to thank you for bringing this to my attention.]

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Vahir » Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:02 pm UTC

Anyone willing to venture a guess whether Erdogan actually believes the "The entire country is INFILTRATED" thing? I don't know which is scarier, that he's just using it as an excuse for a purge, or that he is really that paranoid.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Jul 20, 2016 10:27 pm UTC

When it gets to the point that half the country is 'purgable' (not that we've got there, yet), you've got to wonder if the purgers are now the ones that are wrong for the country.

But then you've got Syria, Libya, Egypt, etc, to one degree or another...

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby CorruptUser » Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:59 pm UTC

Hey now, be fair. In Egypt it was only 1/4 of the country, those that supported the Muslim Brotherhood. And given what organizations the MB has supported or spun off, they might have a point.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Thu Jul 21, 2016 6:24 am UTC

These institutions were infiltrated by people who weren't his unquestioning supporters but he's well on the way to fixing that.

Soupspoon wrote:But then you've got Syria, Libya, Egypt, etc, to one degree or another...

I don't follow. Are these places where mass detainment would improve things?
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Soupspoon » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:15 am UTC

maybeagnostic wrote:
Soupspoon wrote:But then you've got Syria, Libya, Egypt, etc, to one degree or another...

I don't follow. Are these places where mass detainment would improve things?

Nope. But they're places where domestic alternatives to the prior regime(s) have been shown to be wanting, whilst at the same time exhibiting not much encouragement for the old guy in charge to just step away... In different ways.

Basically "it's complex". And I'm only picking on them because of a demonstrable combination of geographical/temporal/political proximity. I imagine that if we ever had a full-on May Revolt over here, it wouldn't look so good, either.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby HES » Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:07 am UTC

The new state of emergency takes Parliament out of the legislative process. How wonderfully democratic.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby maybeagnostic » Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:26 am UTC

I think the situation in those countries is sort of the inverse of what Erdogan is doing now. If you go back a decade or even just a week Turkey had free press, independent judiciary, an army that obeyed the elected President but weren't his cronies, an education system that allowed the expression and exchange of ideas. The same cannot be said of Sirya, Libya and Egypt where the dictators had been entrenched for a generation and once removed there were no institutions in place to carry on the business of running the country.

In related news, today Erdogan announced a 3-month state of emergency. Option to extend it to 6-months and individual ministers get the option to effectively create laws whenever they decide without consulting the parliament.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby elasto » Thu Jul 21, 2016 10:47 am UTC

At the risk of crossing the streams, Trump once again demonstrates he loves a strong leader no matter how anti-democratic:

Asked about the failed coup in Turkey on Friday, the Republican candidate praised Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been criticised by some Western leaders over his increasingly authoritarian rule.

"I give great credit to him for being able to turn that around," Mr Trump said of the failed coup. "Some people say that it was staged, you know that," he said. "I don't think so."

US Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Mr Erdogan to follow the rule of law, amid a crackdown on opposition figures by the Turkish leader in the wake of the coup attempt. But Mr Trump chose not to make a similar statement.

"When the world sees how bad the United States is and we start talking about civil liberties, I don't think we are a very good messenger," he said.

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby sardia » Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:16 pm UTC

elasto wrote:At the risk of crossing the streams, Trump once again demonstrates he loves a strong leader no matter how anti-democratic:

Asked about civil liberties, I don't think we are a very good messenger," he said.

It doesn't matter what Democrats think about Trump, what matters is how much Republicans care. The bad part is the GOP doesn't give a shit about authoritarianism. We used to give Lip service to democracy, but it's no longer a faux pas for them. The only red lines for Trump is guns and punishing women for abortions.
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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby pogrmman » Thu Jul 21, 2016 7:41 pm UTC

Well,Erdogan has now partially suspended the European Convention on Human Rights, so it looks like he's completing the conversion to authoritarianism pretty smoothly...

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Re: Military coup attempt in Turkey? [coup fails]

Postby Lucrece » Sat Jul 23, 2016 9:52 am UTC

elasto wrote:At the risk of crossing the streams, Trump once again demonstrates he loves a strong leader no matter how anti-democratic:

Asked about the failed coup in Turkey on Friday, the Republican candidate praised Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been criticised by some Western leaders over his increasingly authoritarian rule.

"I give great credit to him for being able to turn that around," Mr Trump said of the failed coup. "Some people say that it was staged, you know that," he said. "I don't think so."

US Secretary of State John Kerry has urged Mr Erdogan to follow the rule of law, amid a crackdown on opposition figures by the Turkish leader in the wake of the coup attempt. But Mr Trump chose not to make a similar statement.

"When the world sees how bad the United States is and we start talking about civil liberties, I don't think we are a very good messenger," he said.



Obama made his support for Erdogan clear so it's not like Trump is some devious outlier.
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