Trump presidency

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Wed Oct 04, 2017 2:44 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
I wonder if this will change the statehood debate at all. Or at least lead to the Jones Act being permanently lifted.

If you don't know anything, assume it'll be the same. If you know stuff about senate balance and beneficiaries of the Jones act, you'll know there's big obstacles to Puerto Rico getting Statehood.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Wed Oct 04, 2017 3:03 pm UTC

sardia wrote:
Liri wrote:
I wonder if this will change the statehood debate at all. Or at least lead to the Jones Act being permanently lifted.

If you don't know anything, assume it'll be the same. If you know stuff about senate balance and beneficiaries of the Jones act, you'll know there's big obstacles to Puerto Rico getting Statehood.

No, yeah, I know it's incredibly unlikely from a political standpoint, but pundits might start up the conversation about it again.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:13 pm UTC

Good news!

The world representative of the USA has left after his uplifting message to Puerto Rico, and has gone to deliver his wisdom to Las Vegas.

Now, as 34 dead (so far) isn't a 'real catastrophe' in Puerto Rico, will 59 (so far) in Las Vegas trip that line in the mind (?) of Trump and the NRA?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Pfhorrest » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:25 pm UTC

But you see, those 59 people in Las Vegas were Americans, unlike those Puerto Rican foreigners, and that makes much more of a difference than a few numbers. /s
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:41 pm UTC

Possibly, but if he throws some roles of paper towel to the people of Las Vegas I would love to see them throw them straight back at the worthless fucker.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby MartianInvader » Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:20 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:Possibly, but if he throws some roles of paper towel to the people of Las Vegas I would love to see them throw them straight back at the worthless fucker.

Its "rolls".
Let's have a fervent argument, mostly over semantics, where we all claim the burden of proof is on the other side!

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:02 pm UTC

MartianInvader wrote:
Jumble wrote:Possibly, but if he throws some roles of paper towel to the people of Las Vegas I would love to see them throw them straight back at the worthless fucker.

Its "rolls".

It's "it's".
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:09 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
MartianInvader wrote:
Jumble wrote:Possibly, but if he throws some roles of paper towel to the people of Las Vegas I would love to see them throw them straight back at the worthless fucker.

Its "rolls".

It's "it's".

In my case, it's dyslexia.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Sheikh al-Majaneen » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:41 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:Good news!

The world representative of the USA has left after his uplifting message to Puerto Rico, and has gone to deliver his wisdom to Las Vegas.

Now, as 34 dead (so far) isn't a 'real catastrophe' in Puerto Rico, will 59 (so far) in Las Vegas trip that line in the mind (?) of Trump and the NRA?

Well, AFAIK he doesn't have a hotel in San Juan, or voters...

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Isaac Hill » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:06 am UTC

It was reported that Sec of State Tillerson called Trump a "moron", along with other comments. Tillerson went to the press to deny the other comments and, when asked, refused to address the moron comment. I wonder how close we are to the Cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment and declaring the President unfit. They probably won't, since that would anger the R base too much, but I still wonder how many would like to.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ucim » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:34 am UTC

Isaac Hill wrote:...declaring the President unfit. They probably won't, since that would anger the R base...
While Destructo Child is clearly unfit for the presidency, the R base is the actual problem. A solid third of the country wants what the White House is giving them.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Zamfir » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:38 am UTC

It was reported that Sec of State Tillerson called Trump a "moron", along with other comments. Tillerson went to the press to deny the other comments and, when asked, refused to address the moron comment. I wonder how close we are to the Cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment and declaring the President unfit. They probably won't, since that would anger the R base too much, but I still wonder how many would like to.

I get the (not very founded) impression that they are learning to work around Trump. Don't upstage the guy, keep him busy, let him tweet, ignore everything his says, do your own thing.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Quercus » Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:52 am UTC

ucim wrote:While Destructo Child is clearly unfit for the presidency, the R base is the actual problem. A solid third of the country wants what the White House is giving them.


How does one deal with that? By which I mean mostly, how does one try to keep oppressed groups protected under those circumstances: when a third of the country appears to be extremely happy to see those protections stripped away. For clarity I'm thinking PoC, trans people, queer people, neurodiverse people, native people, people without good access to healthcare, Muslims etc. etc.

As a member of several of those groups the idea that such a large fraction of the US population would prefer people like me not to exist, or is at least a-okay with the idea of us not existing is daunting. Perhaps I'm overstating that, but the US does feel intensely *hostile* at the moment. I'm lucky from a personal perspective that I was able to simply remove plans to move to the US from my medium-term options, but I guess my question is, how does one engage productively with that situation?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:37 pm UTC

Quercus wrote:
ucim wrote:While Destructo Child is clearly unfit for the presidency, the R base is the actual problem. A solid third of the country wants what the White House is giving them.


How does one deal with that? By which I mean mostly, how does one try to keep oppressed groups protected under those circumstances: when a third of the country appears to be extremely happy to see those protections stripped away. For clarity I'm thinking PoC, trans people, queer people, neurodiverse people, native people, people without good access to healthcare, Muslims etc. etc.

As a member of several of those groups the idea that such a large fraction of the US population would prefer people like me not to exist, or is at least a-okay with the idea of us not existing is daunting. Perhaps I'm overstating that, but the US does feel intensely *hostile* at the moment. I'm lucky from a personal perspective that I was able to simply remove plans to move to the US from my medium-term options, but I guess my question is, how does one engage productively with that situation?

Have Democrats move to conservative districts and vote. The GOP can only gerrymander every 10 years, and the margin of victory is slim.
The other big thing is to start running for office in unlikely races. The main Democratic party only fights big races, and doesn't like spending resources in losing races. Which is a great way to be a minority party forever.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:26 pm UTC

Unfortunately, outside money pouring in could backfire, too. I don't think there are any reliable numbers on that though. The Louisiana senate race, for instance, is looking close enough to start chucking funds at, but it could well be perceived and played in ads - correctly - as democrats politicking.

That isn't to say we shouldn't try, however.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:15 pm UTC

Liri wrote:Unfortunately, outside money pouring in could backfire, too. I don't think there are any reliable numbers on that though. The Louisiana senate race, for instance, is looking close enough to start chucking funds at, but it could well be perceived and played in ads - correctly - as democrats politicking.

That isn't to say we shouldn't try, however.

The outsiders interfering thing is a very time honored tactic. The trick is to make it subtle. By the time they cover it, it's too late. Or maybe the GOP has an advantage with paranoia, but the Democrats have to fund losing candidates. The idea is to run everywhere and get lucky. Statistically, an80%chance of losing 200 races yields more seats than trying to win 70% of 50 seats. The math works out that your contested seats do a little worse, but you easily make up for it in lucky races.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Quercus » Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:49 pm UTC

Does the Democratic party actually have the funds to contest every race? I've always heard financial constraints as a reason that slim chances aren't contested by them.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:00 pm UTC

Quercus wrote:Does the Democratic party actually have the funds to contest every race? I've always heard financial constraints as a reason that slim chances aren't contested by them.

Lack of candidates and volunteers is the bigger problem.
people like to win, so they don't like taking weeks out of their lives just to lose. Money is a problem in that there's diminishing returns to advertising and the Democrats keep spending it on expensive TV ads. If you redistribute it to smaller races, the Democrats will get more of a return.
But yes, there's not enough money to fund every race, but that doesn't mean Democrats are spending money wisely. For example, PACs don't get discounted rates, so even though there's no fund raising limits, you're sucking up donor money on increasingly expensive marginal TV ads.

PS Sessions just announced that trans gender is no longer a protected class, and Trump personally intervened to sabotage the ACA marketplace in Iowa.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby pogrmman » Fri Oct 06, 2017 4:58 pm UTC

Sessions announced an expansion of religious objections. Basically, government employees don’t have to prove their objections and tells government agencies to do as much as they can to protect those objections.

It also announces some weakening on the Johnson Amendment — so churches may soon be able to directly donate to campaigns. The way it’s worded seems to specifically be trying to protect religious nonprofits.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby cphite » Fri Oct 06, 2017 5:36 pm UTC

Isaac Hill wrote:It was reported that Sec of State Tillerson called Trump a "moron", along with other comments. Tillerson went to the press to deny the other comments and, when asked, refused to address the moron comment. I wonder how close we are to the Cabinet invoking the 25th Amendment and declaring the President unfit. They probably won't, since that would anger the R base too much, but I still wonder how many would like to.


The 25th Amendment doesn't work that way.

The qualification for removal is that the president is "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" - it can't just be that they think he's stupid, or crazy, or really evil, or anything else along those lines. He would need to actually be incapable of acting as president. So for example, if they could prove that he was actually suffering from delusions that prevented him from knowing what was real, they might have something. But there is no evidence of that.

Second, even if you could get the Vice President and cabinet members to declare him as such, all Trump has to do to get reinstated is respond to the charges in writing. Seriously. Once he does that, they have the option of declaring him unfit again - but that sends the decision to Congress, which would have to carry a 2/3 vote in both chambers to get him removed. Which simply isn't going to happen.

Trump is going to be president for the next three years. It sucks, but that's the way it is. The chances of him being impeached are incredibly slim, and the chances of him being removed via the 25th are even slimmer.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby idonno » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:13 pm UTC

cphite wrote:
Isaac Hill wrote:respond to the charges in writing

Does tweeting count?

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Quercus » Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:23 pm UTC

On the basis that it counts as publishing for libel purposes I'd say probably yes

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:25 pm UTC

I’m not a constitutional lawyer, but I’d second that understanding of the 25th. I thought it was there for the event that POTUS suffered a health event so debilitating that they were unable to function as president. Or (as fictionally illustrated in ‘The West Wing’), their capacity to fulfill the duties was compromised to the point that they recognized this and would not countermand their replacement.

Two adjuncts to this:
1) if rump went, I believe you would be left with Pence, the Little Finger to trumpy’s Joffrey. So far, the orange man-child is so focused on masturbating on Twitter that by and large he’s achieved the square root of jack shit. Pence is smart and would try to do stuff. I don’t think you’d find that’s a positive.
2) I struggle with the West Wing these days as it projects a time, possibly a fiction, that being smart was better than being a racist half-wit if you wanted to be POTUS.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby iamspen » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:41 pm UTC

While I agree a President Pence would do all sorts of terrible things, I also doubt he would be putting us on a collision course with nuclear war, and the racist populists that are now coming out of the woodwork would have to go back to the old ways of supporting horribly racist Republican policies while pretending they're not racists.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:45 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:2) I struggle with the West Wing these days as it projects a time, possibly a fiction, that being smart was better than being a racist half-wit if you wanted to be POTUS.

I've been hammering my way through House of Cards (yes, the American one) (on season 5 now). They're at least smart, in addition to being evil.


I think Pence could win reelection. That VP debate was so painful to watch.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Pfhorrest » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:52 pm UTC

cphite wrote:Trump is going to be president for the next three years. It sucks, but that's the way it is. The chances of him being impeached are incredibly slim, and the chances of him being removed via the 25th are even slimmer.

For the Pence reason already mentioned, I'm happier to have him stay in office than be impeached, as much schadenfreude I'd get from seeing him impeached. Also for the reason that I'm kind of hoping (against hope) that he continues to look like such a (to quote the Secretary of State) fucking moron that it discredits the entire Republican party who backed him in the public eye. I would love it if he crashes and burns and takes the entire Republican establishment down with him over the course of his long, disgraceful, only term. And then America springs back hard in the other direction so that nothing like this presidency ever happens again.

Hey, I can dream.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby orthogon » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:51 pm UTC

Did I hallucinate an interesting discussion, albeit arguably somewhat off-topic, on the broader theme of left/right politics? Or did it get moved somewhere else? If so, where?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby HES » Mon Oct 09, 2017 5:56 pm UTC

You hallucinated the part about it being interesting. It's been moved over here.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby charliepanayi » Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:59 pm UTC

Pfhorrest wrote:
cphite wrote:Trump is going to be president for the next three years. It sucks, but that's the way it is. The chances of him being impeached are incredibly slim, and the chances of him being removed via the 25th are even slimmer.

For the Pence reason already mentioned, I'm happier to have him stay in office than be impeached, as much schadenfreude I'd get from seeing him impeached. Also for the reason that I'm kind of hoping (against hope) that he continues to look like such a (to quote the Secretary of State) fucking moron that it discredits the entire Republican party who backed him in the public eye. I would love it if he crashes and burns and takes the entire Republican establishment down with him over the course of his long, disgraceful, only term. And then America springs back hard in the other direction so that nothing like this presidency ever happens again.

Hey, I can dream.


The trouble is no matter how awful this administration is the whole system - the electoral college, the Senate that gives California and Wyoming equal say, the gerrymandered House and the systematic removal of voting rights in various states - is currently set up to help the GOP.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby sardia » Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:54 pm UTC

charliepanayi wrote:
Pfhorrest wrote:
cphite wrote:Trump is going to be president for the next three years. It sucks, but that's the way it is. The chances of him being impeached are incredibly slim, and the chances of him being removed via the 25th are even slimmer.

For the Pence reason already mentioned, I'm happier to have him stay in office than be impeached, as much schadenfreude I'd get from seeing him impeached. Also for the reason that I'm kind of hoping (against hope) that he continues to look like such a (to quote the Secretary of State) fucking moron that it discredits the entire Republican party who backed him in the public eye. I would love it if he crashes and burns and takes the entire Republican establishment down with him over the course of his long, disgraceful, only term. And then America springs back hard in the other direction so that nothing like this presidency ever happens again.

Hey, I can dream.


The trouble is no matter how awful this administration is the whole system - the electoral college, the Senate that gives California and Wyoming equal say, the gerrymandered House and the systematic removal of voting rights in various states - is currently set up to help the GOP.

It's currently setup to help the GOP TODAY. There's no guarantee it'll help them forever, or even 20 years from now. Given how candidates and parties can suddenly shift(party realignments) political rocks can suddenly feel like shifting sand.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:21 pm UTC

Trump challenges Tillerson to IQ test because he is highly educated and "has the best words".


Really? Just really? He's your fucking Foreign Secretary, you colossal moron.


I know in the UK we've voted for oblivion, but at least you guys still cheer us up.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Mutex » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:32 pm UTC

I saw that an thought it was possibly the most stunning example of the Dunning-Kruger effect I'd ever seen. Of all the things Trump thinks he could win.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:58 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:Foreign Secretary Secretary of State


Odds on him sticking out a full year?
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Mutex » Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:24 pm UTC

Liri wrote:
Jumble wrote:Foreign Secretary Secretary of State


Odds on him sticking out a full year?

Zero? I doubt he'll last another two weeks honestly.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Jumble » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:01 pm UTC

Which is not a good. In UK gov we regard Tillerson and Mattis as a ‘sanity shield’, filtering the worst of the stupidity shitstorm coming from the manchild before it does serious damage. I think at the moment you may need your checks and balances like never before.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Mutex » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:26 pm UTC

And Tillerson knows it which is why he's still there.

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Liri » Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:50 pm UTC

I feel quite sorry for my friend who started working at the State Dept. last May. I'm sure he's going to stick it out though. He's fairly junior, as far as I know.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby ivnja » Wed Oct 11, 2017 2:04 am UTC

Jumble wrote:In UK gov we regard Tillerson and Mattis as a ‘sanity shield’, filtering the worst of the stupidity shitstorm coming from the manchild before it does serious damage.

So does the Chairman of the Senate Commitfee on Foreign Relations (Sen. Corker, R-TN).

I hadnt watched Sarah Huckabee Sanders actually speak until I saw a clip on the news tonight, but her whole "The President was just making a joke, maybe all you in the press pool should get a sense of humor" thing in regards to the IQ business definitely makes me never want to do it again. It felt gross, listening to someone spin Trump's bullshit with that much sneering contempt for any semblance of truth, and for the non-obsequious press. And that was a relatively minor sort of issue. I can't imagine being a press pool member having to listen to the lies about the big stuff.
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Re: Trump presidency

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:54 am UTC

During the campaign the press (and a large section of the audience) took Trump literally but not seriously.

Now the press is taking Trump seriously and it's still not good...

Also, attacking your audience by saying they don't understand is the worst thing you can do.

I thunk this was the worst part in Theresa Amy's ill-advised election campaign: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cvSPE7iifYQ

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Re: Trump presidency

Postby orthogon » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:03 pm UTC

Jumble wrote:In UK gov we regard Tillerson and Mattis as a ‘sanity shield’, filtering the worst of the stupidity shitstorm coming from the manchild before it does serious damage.

This sentence makes me oddly proud to be British.
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