Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

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Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Daeren Ryft » Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:39 am UTC

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

I came back to the fora from my hiatus/forgetfulness to post this. Take one look at the map he presents.

Texas becoming a Mexican subsidiary? Canada taking over the Great Plains/Midwest? The Carolinas joining the same group as New York? There will be no group that still calls itself "The United States of America"? All of this in less than a year? WHAT?
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby poxic » Sun Jan 04, 2009 5:36 am UTC

Hmm. In 1998, when he first presented it, it would have been much more interesting than it is now. Back then, the New American Century gang was fairly new and radical, while a Democratic president was under fire for getting a blowjob. Texas and California despised each other (and still do); New York looked down on everyone else (still does); and most regions figured they were the "real" America (still do). From the perspective of a Russian, it could well have looked like a breakup was looming.

It's hard to break up a country, though. The former USSR is a bit of an exception right now, since states have been peeling off at a good clip since the central bureaucracy broke down. Maybe that's what gets the peeling started: loss of centralised power and the chaos that would ensue.

We've heard predictions recently that the majority of the US budget will soon be going toward interest on the debt (by 2010 or so?). Rove's tactics for a "permanent Republican majority" have only deepened the divide between conservatives and liberals. This divide may make it hard for Obama to impress anyone who didn't vote for him.

I suspect Panarin's prediction is too early. The US will break apart one day -- how many countries have existed for longer than a few hundred years with their current borders? -- but I doubt it will be within the next decade. Maybe before 2100, but only if climate change and/or resource shortages and/or awful things we haven't thought of yet get involved and mess things around, I think. (Same goes for Canada.)
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby CivilDefense700 » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:16 am UTC

It will be a cold day in hell before Virginia joins anything European.

I say we will found our own republic, we already have the White House of the Confederacy that we can put back into use.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby pyroman » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:44 am UTC

I remember seeing this on reddit a while back and while i don't think the possibility of the US breaking up is that far fetched (although i feel less after the results of this past election) the map doesn't seem to take into account the views on various states. I mean how often do you hear NY and Kentucky sharing the same views on well just about anything. To me it seemed like he just wanted a nice clean geographical breakup without paying attention to the geopolitical boundaries.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Pa-Patch » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:53 am UTC

Seems to me like he just decided allegiances based entirely on proximity/location.
"Hey, California is west coast! There's a lot of dudes there, so it'd probably be central to a group breaking out, so let's say all.....THESE states join up with them. All right, China is pretty powerful, and look at that! They're closest to China! They're teaming up with them!"
"All right, now this north chunk, what's up north....hmmm...."
Etc.

It's also silly he's stuck with his date. It wouldn't be hard for him to say "oh, blank happened which I couldn't have predicted. This changes things and the US will probably hold out till 2020"

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby poxic » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:57 am UTC

Yeah, the regions didn't make sense. North California would be more likely to team up with Oregon, Washington, and possibly British Columbia, while South California would go with Nevada and Arizona (and maybe parts of Mexico).
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby ameretrifle » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:58 am UTC

Yeah, the US will almost certainly disintegrate someday, but 2010 was way too rash a prediction even in 1998.

And Texas? Joining Mexico? It'll be a cold day in hell.... They've been a republic before, there's no reason they wouldn't try it again. I think the same goes for a lot of the south-- they'd be upset enough about the collapse of the US, but Mexico? My whole damn family would rather secede. There's a reason we still got so damn many confederate flags down here... Yeah, I agree, the divisions seem to be there just to look pretty. Plus, it's odd that every single nation OTHER than us seems to still be around to divvy us up... None of them are going to collapse by that time? And no former state will even THINK about independence (like, you know, all the former USSR states did)? Please...

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Sero » Sun Jan 04, 2009 8:02 am UTC

Poxic, I'm not sure I'd agree with your statement that the United States will absolutely break apart one day. Of course, that's mostly just because I think predictions about the future become drastically less likely to remain valid more than fairly short-term forecasts. The world I think, is just in too much of a technological transition period for long term predictions to have any serious validity. Too much potential for breakthroughs, and so on. But I'm getting off topic, or already am.

I disagree with Panarin. I concede the possibility, and that events have coincided nicely with his prediction to make it more likely now than at any other time, but I don't think it's likely to happen. But I wouldn't rate it anywhere near even odds. The United States political landscape is in a period of turmoil, but not the political structure. The policies and priorities of the government and culture might shift radically, but I don't think a break-up is likely. I'm reminded of this, which reflects a small but significant part of why I'd doubt it. I admit there's a lot of time for that 'new president shine' to wear off over the next eighteen months, but if confidence like that holds steady, a break up seems significantly less likely.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Mabus_Zero » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:41 am UTC

I don't think that the country will collapse. Technically, Russia didn't collapse. The various satellite states of the USSR simply shrugged off the grip the USSR had on them as the Soviets became more and more irrelevant, and eventually this same state of social change arrived in Russia itself, the old rulers being ousted, and new ones replacing them, and in a fashion, that for the time, seemed rather graceful. Some hiccups and hardships, even that remain to this day. But its not like Russia itself disappeared, though. The people, in a culmination of their unique arrangements and relationships, manufactured themselves a new government that, at the time, suited them.

Much as with the Soviet Union, I expect the Central Government to grow more and more radical in its political alignment in relation to its constituency, and to continue on a pattern of being recognized as an irrelevancy, more of a poison then a medicine, until it finally ceases to exist, perhaps lashing out, perhaps going in its final moments gracefully. The states and localities will learn to get along for better or for worse on their own, and a new, mostly democratic-republican arrangement will rise up to recycle the remains of the former. Life goes on. For some, it gets easier, for some its gets harder, but we'll have to see what happens.

I also hold no assumptions on the time that will pass in which this process will occur.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby wst » Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:54 am UTC

I admit I pictured all of the states physically disintegrating with sea and stuff between them...

Also, having watched The Alamo (2004) recently, Texian is so much cooler than Texan.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby bigglesworth » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:15 pm UTC

I think Mexico would collapse a long time before the US. It's collapse would probably be caused by the problems in the US, actually.

Collapsing empires rarely are just absorbed by surrounding ones. The Roman Empire split up, and then split again. The British Empire split up into different countries.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby aleflamedyud » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:21 pm UTC

pyroman wrote:I remember seeing this on reddit a while back and while i don't think the possibility of the US breaking up is that far fetched (although i feel less after the results of this past election) the map doesn't seem to take into account the views on various states. I mean how often do you hear NY and Kentucky sharing the same views on well just about anything. To me it seemed like he just wanted a nice clean geographical breakup without paying attention to the geopolitical boundaries.

Pretty much this. With a culturally appropriate set of borders, I can't say I'd really object to the breakup of the USA. I've always figured that if those Red-State morons are the "real America" then it's high time to stop living in America.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Quantum Potatoid » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:43 pm UTC

poxic wrote:Yeah, the regions didn't make sense. North California would be more likely to team up with Oregon, Washington, and possibly British Columbia, while South California would go with Nevada and Arizona (and maybe parts of Mexico).

I'm considering the Republic of Cancadia myself! :lol:
http://zapatopi.net/cascadia/
It does make some pretty good points... :P
The regions don't really make much sense in my opinion either. I doubt Oregon and Washington would want Southern California in their territory.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby bigglesworth » Sun Jan 04, 2009 7:53 pm UTC

Arg! The flag is so ugly!
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Wiglaf » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:30 pm UTC

I was waiting for the "and... and... LASERS!!! PEW PEW LOLOLOL!!!"
Seriously, there are signifcant military resources in the Midwest (i.e. nukes). There is no way in hell we would lose that, much less to Canada. Our aerospace and electronic industries in California are too important to let China just waltz in and take that. Northern states east of the Mississippi will keep their support behind the new liberal government. He clearly knows shit next to nothing about Florida. We would keep control of both sides of the Mississippi, with force if needed. Texas might just be looney enough to secede, though.
He seemed to forget that we have, like, an army.

Ah, heck, I'm a little bored right now. So here:
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PEW PEW PEW!!!!
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Izawwlgood » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:34 pm UTC

Bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah aha ha ha ha ha!!!

ahem...
HAHAHAHAHA!!!

Viva la revolution!

forumites, will you stalk the barren wastes of America with me when it all goes to hell in a handbasket?
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Daeren Ryft » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:47 am UTC

Izawwlgood wrote:Bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ah aha ha ha ha ha!!!

ahem...
HAHAHAHAHA!!!

Viva la revolution!

forumites, will you stalk the barren wastes of America with me when it all goes to hell in a handbasket?


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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby GourdCaptain » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:20 am UTC

I, for one, welcome my Canadian overlords, and would like to point out I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.

Seriously, 2010? I thought I was pessimistic about the future of this country, but, yeah.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Solt » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:50 am UTC

I don't think it's even possible for the Union to break up without a complete collapse of the Federal government happening first. Last time someone tried, they were able to raise their own armies because back then an army consisted of little more than uniforms and muskets, and sometimes neither of those were strictly necessary. But today, where would Texas get its air force without southern California? Where would the midwest get its soldiers without the East Coast? Where would California get its Navy without Virginia? Where would any of them get nukes without Washington, D.C.? Don't forget that the most powerful military on earth answers not to any state governors, but to one person, the head of the Federal government and you can be damn sure that if the states want to break up the Federal government will fall down on the side of maintaining its own existence and protecting the constitution. And guess what, the strongest armed force any state commands is not even the national gaurd, it's the state troopers or equivalent- a police force. Even if all the states seceded at once the Federal government would still win because those states would have no military to speak of. When you think about it, the Federal Gov has quietly performed a coup in the 150 years since the civil war, denying the states all legal and military ability to secede.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Mabus_Zero » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:21 am UTC

That's assuming there isn't an organized dissension of a guerilla variety among the various states. And that's assuming that the individual allegiances of the individual soldiers isn't compromised, and the Army remains intact.

Furthermore, the Federal Government, without quick and easy victories in the areas of heavy secessionist persuasion, would quickly find its valid sources of funding and fueling very, very taxed.

Also, I gave the resistances the idea of using high-powered microwave transmitters to knock airplanes out of the sky, by exploiting complicated and sensistive electronic components xD
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Sero » Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:45 am UTC

Aye. Even assuming the premise of the United States undergoing schisms in the near future is valid, I'm pretty sure the lines Panarin have drawn on a map are more than a little absurd. Very few areas are politically homogeneous enough for a split to become practical, I expect. Apparent sectional divisions in the United States occurs largely from the generalizations made easy by our division into strong, distinct political units below the federal level. But 'North versus South' sort of regional divisions are, generally speaking, no longer valid. More accurate would be urban versus rural. I'm not sure how the geographic dispersal that involves would affect a civil war. Off the top of my head I can't think of any parallels to compare to.

Still, I just can't see economic strife driving the United States to the fracturing point. Not alone. Most citizens would be unlikely, I think, to turn against the Federal government unless they felt it was flagrantly acting against their interests and liberties and was beyond being reformed. To do so would be to abandon, from their perception, two hundred and thirty plus years of adherence to the ideals of freedom and liberty. The two are too closely associated in their minds. Basically, I think you'd need both economic turmoil and political tyranny for that sort of scenario to be feasible. You'd also need, in addition to tyranny, the loss of confidence that things can change.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Delass » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:19 am UTC

Even if obama turned out to be the worst leader ever, and there was mass chaos and rebellion, there would be no way mexico or canada could take over, and I doubt china could. Im pretty sure a war with china, mexico, or canada would unify us well enough.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Vieto » Mon Jan 05, 2009 11:37 am UTC

I don't know. The last war you guys had with us in 1812 didn't go to well for you guys.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Galen » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:30 pm UTC

One of the prime differences between the collapse of the USSR and any potential collapse of the USA is that the USSR was composed of a whole lot of nation states. The Uzbecks hate the Tajiks and the Tajiks hate the Georgians, and the Georgians hate the South Ossetians, and everyone hates the Russians. Hence they all distance themselves from each other, as far as they can by Sharpie-ing thicker borders on all the maps they can get their hands on.

The difference being in the United States there's little ghettoing amongst the myriad nationalities.

Without an intense source of gravity, like common nationality, there's little chance of cohesion to a magnitude that would motivate any region to desire separation from the whole. Without a strong identity, there's no perceived benefit from independence that outweighs cooperating with the other states/regions. Simply, in the event of collapse, the scattered populations within the United States won't form independent states. The people will merely reform under the original constitution.

Unless there was something else could divide people into distinct regions. For instance, college ball.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Diadem » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:49 pm UTC

Every empire can disintegrate.

But the US neatly splitting into 4 parts that each join up with a different nation? that's just absurd. If the US were to disintegrate some small parts might join Canada or Mexico, but most would just become independent. None would join China or Europe. I mean, why would they?
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby segmentation fault » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:51 pm UTC

it seems like he is basing the new nations on economic reasons rather than social ones. i dont get it, nor do i like it.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Vieto » Mon Jan 05, 2009 5:24 pm UTC

Dibs on Alaska.

On a serious note, It doesn't look likely that the United states will collapse anytime soon, or with-in the next 4 years at least.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby krikitarmy » Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:14 pm UTC

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Alder » Mon Jan 05, 2009 6:22 pm UTC

Atlantic America joining the EU. *pause* BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

We can barely get Britain in the EU, and we're actually in Europe.

Oh the other hand, we English-speaking states, could finally mob the Eurovision Song Contest, and do some political voting of our own. Rhode Island for the win in 2011!!!
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby 22/7 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:33 pm UTC

Solt wrote:I don't think it's even possible for the Union to break up without a complete collapse of the Federal government happening first. Last time someone tried, they were able to raise their own armies because back then an army consisted of little more than uniforms and muskets, and sometimes neither of those were strictly necessary. But today, where would Texas get its air force without southern California? Where would the midwest get its soldiers without the East Coast? Where would California get its Navy without Virginia? Where would any of them get nukes without Washington, D.C.? Don't forget that the most powerful military on earth answers not to any state governors, but to one person, the head of the Federal government and you can be damn sure that if the states want to break up the Federal government will fall down on the side of maintaining its own existence and protecting the constitution. And guess what, the strongest armed force any state commands is not even the national gaurd, it's the state troopers or equivalent- a police force. Even if all the states seceded at once the Federal government would still win because those states would have no military to speak of. When you think about it, the Federal Gov has quietly performed a coup in the 150 years since the civil war, denying the states all legal and military ability to secede.
Well, Mabus kind of already covered this, but it's a bit of a pet peeve of mine. I keep seeing this argument used as a reason Americans are idiots for wanting/having their guns (they wouldn't stand a chance against the US military). What makes you think you could convince Americans to march through their own country, their own states and cities, and kill other Americans? Texas is probably the best example. I can nearly guarantee that were Texas to attempt to secede (a legitimate attempt, not a handful of crazies), pretty much everyone in the military from Texas would go home to protect their families' and Texas's interests. Extrapolate that on a nationwide scale and you've got a federal government ordering like 600 guys to march across the US and put down uprisings. Good luck with that. Oh, and of course the Feds would have nukes, but you're going to have to convince the other guys on the chain to actually fire those nukes at the US. Same with the jets and submarines and everything else.
Totally not a hypothetical...

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby cwoodin » Mon Jan 05, 2009 10:19 pm UTC

Solt wrote:Where would any of them get nukes without Washington, D.C.?
Is that where they're keeping nukes now?

His map reminds me of Phillip K. Dick's The Man in the High Castle.

EDIT:
Also, I read an interesting article that argued that because of globalization, nations can afford to break up into smaller regions, since borders, both economically and culturally speaking, don't mean nearly as much as they used to. (LINK)
I highly doubt that if the US split up into separate regions (and, as has been said, it wouldn't happen by 2010), the regions described in the original articles would be the regions that we ended up with, but who knows?

Also (again), Minnesota is basically part of Canada already, so I wouldn't mind seeing them go.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Solt » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:46 am UTC

cwoodin wrote:
Solt wrote:Where would any of them get nukes without Washington, D.C.?
Is that where they're keeping nukes now?


Yes. That is where the Pentagon and Commander In Chief are. I would go so far as to say it's impossible to launch a nuke with only physical access, without significant reverse engineering.

22/7 wrote:What makes you think you could convince Americans to march through their own country, their own states and cities, and kill other Americans?


Maybe you should brush up on your American history?

Mabus_Zero wrote:That's assuming there isn't an organized dissension of a guerilla variety among the various states. And that's assuming that the individual allegiances of the individual soldiers isn't compromised, and the Army remains intact.


True, but I call that a special circumstance in that it has to be well organized and planned far in advance, with good reason. Would states organize a serious resistance without trying every possible political recourse first? Unlikely. Look at it this way: if the majority of states want to secede, that means there exists enough political power in the dissenting states to basically legally rewrite the constitution. You only secede if you can't take control, and that means any seceding block would be a minority of states.

Furthermore, the Federal Government, without quick and easy victories in the areas of heavy secessionist persuasion, would quickly find its valid sources of funding and fueling very, very taxed.


Setting aside for the moment that, as I implied above, at least some states would remain with the federal government simply because it would then become their tool as the legal status quo, you are forgetting a simple fact: this is, after all, home court for both sides. The US Military knows where its resources lie. It knows what it has to capture and hold in order to wage a prolonged war. Assuming it has its shit together in the first 24 hours, it has more than enough resources to seize all the refineries, mines, factories, bases, farms, etc. that it needs to continue to wage its war. Of course that's assuming there's even some sort of resistance for the military to destroy, which there won't be. Police Cruisers vs. tanks? Please. What's to stop the Federal Government from sending a few hundred troops to every state capitol and simply arresting the state leaders the moment they declare their intent to secede? At best there might be a short, one sided battle giving said leaders enough time to escape and go underground. Then there would be NO chance of secession. What was impossible in 1861, is ridiculously easy today.

Also, I gave the resistances the idea of using high-powered microwave transmitters to knock airplanes out of the sky, by exploiting complicated and sensistive electronic components xD


Modern fighters are built to defeat the Soviet Union. There's no way in hell a government with absolutely no history of investment in military hardware can come up with something that sophisticated before getting bombed out.



Given all the caveats I've talked about, I think the only way a war between the federal government and all the states might arise is if the President used his control of the military to shut down congress and the supreme court, and basically suspended the constitution. We might then argue that once he suspends the constitution he will no longer be CIC and will promptly be arrested, but if not we will have to rely on individual decisions in said government to bring it down from within. Nothing would really be able to protect the states from a dictatorial President assuming that some significant portion of the military and bureaucracy stayed on his side.

The other scenario I see is some minority of states seceding and being utterly crushed by the remaining portion fielding advantages in practically every field. I don't accept that a majority of states would ever simultaneously withdraw from a legally functioning Union. A majority of states is the Union. Wherever they go, the union goes. The commander of the military is elected by the electoral college of states, the ultimate ruling body is composed of regional representatives.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby MartianInvader » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:06 am UTC

Whenever I try to imagine what a US break-up would look like, I wonder what states are similar enough culturally and politically to want to stay together. And, in addition to some southern states, I'm almost sure that two of the most inseparable states would be New York and California. Heck, if some group were to try to secede, I think it'd probably be close to the exact same states as the original confederacy. A civil war would probably ensue, with the same outcome as 150 years ago.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Mabus_Zero » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:08 am UTC

MartianInvader wrote:Whenever I try to imagine what a US break-up would look like, I wonder what states are similar enough culturally and politically to want to stay together. And, in addition to some southern states, I'm almost sure that two of the most inseparable states would be New York and California. Heck, if some group were to try to secede, I think it'd probably be close to the exact same states as the original confederacy. A civil war would probably ensue, with the same outcome as 150 years ago.
MartianInvader wrote:Whenever I try to imagine what a US break-up would look like, I wonder what states are similar enough culturally and politically to want to stay together. And, in addition to some southern states, I'm almost sure that two of the most inseparable states would be New York and California. Heck, if some group were to try to secede, I think it'd probably be close to the exact same states as the original confederacy. A civil war would probably ensue, with the same outcome as 150 years ago.


If the country turns to Civil War, anyone else interested in warlording about?
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Vieto » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:25 am UTC

Mabus_Zero wrote:If the country turns to Civil War, anyone else interested in warlording about?


all that C&Cing will finally pay off!

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby fjafjan » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:42 am UTC

yeah this is really dumb. I wonder why this became a news story. I mean ex-KGB analyst? Is that really the best they could dig up? Gosh.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby bigglesworth » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:43 am UTC

Now, if this had been a series of thriller novels, there'd be a dedicated fanbase and lots more discussion about these ideas.

This ex-KGB guy missed his chance here. I'd have possibly bought those books.
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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby Delass » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:01 am UTC

Orson Scott Card did it, actually. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_(2006_novel) I liked it. I didnt take it too seriously, but it was a fun read.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby krikitarmy » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:33 am UTC

{redacted}
Last edited by krikitarmy on Fri Feb 17, 2017 9:03 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Ex-KGB Analyst predicts USA "Disintegrates" by 2010

Postby william » Tue Jan 06, 2009 5:36 am UTC

MartianInvader wrote:Whenever I try to imagine what a US break-up would look like, I wonder what states are similar enough culturally and politically to want to stay together. And, in addition to some southern states, I'm almost sure that two of the most inseparable states would be New York and California. Heck, if some group were to try to secede, I think it'd probably be close to the exact same states as the original confederacy. A civil war would probably ensue, with the same outcome as 150 years ago.

I doubt it. I mean, the former capital of the Confederacy voted for Obama. Yes, there are still tons of stupid rednecks here in NC, but there are just as many of them up in Ohio. As for Empire, that book would have been a lot better written by somebody without Orson Scott Card's political baggage(i.e. he compares An Inconvenient Truth to the Unabomber Manifesto)
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