Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Oregonaut » Mon Jan 03, 2011 5:53 pm UTC

There's also the fact that if you have a team that is 10-6 and wins their division, and an 11-5 team that is a wild card, it really doesn't make sense to punish the division winner for a one game differential. Making a rule that allows a wild card team to host a game if their record is higher than the division winner is kind of ticky tack, and will so rarely be used as to be nonsensical to have.

Unless they expand the playoff field to allow the division winners to stay home, and have four wild card teams...
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Heisenberg » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:17 pm UTC

There are only 32 teams in the league. If they expand the playoffs to include fully half of the teams in the league, it would diminish the importance of the regular season. Coaches would be pulling quarterbacks week 8 instead of week 13.

If anything, I think 12 out of 32 is too many teams in the playoffs.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:18 pm UTC

Oregonaut wrote:There's also the fact that if you have a team that is 10-6 and wins their division, and an 11-5 team that is a wild card, it really doesn't make sense to punish the division winner for a one game differential.

Yeah, and the fact that there will be entire divisions who won't play a game versus other divisions. Comparing teams from different divisions isn't as simple as just looking at the records. One of the reasons that 6 of the 16 games are inter-division games are intend to give the divisions best team a strong lead, and for that matter the fact that of the remaining 10 games, 8 are common opponents that all of the rest of the division will also play, so as to give a good comparison within the teams in the division. As the current schedule stands there are only 2 games where you will play someone that other division members don't play, so as to allow easy ranking within divisions, but not so much between them. This is probably necessary because there aren't enough games to completely compare the strengths of any two divisions.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby bentheimmigrant » Mon Jan 03, 2011 6:35 pm UTC

Telchar wrote:As much as we complain about the home playoff game for Seattle, does anyone expect that to give them advantage enough to beat the Saints? I mean, it might change the O/U in Vegas but the Saints are only going to lose this if they implode.


Oh, I agree. My issue is more that the saints deserve to be at home. They've earned the chance to play in front of their fans, in their own stadium, by being a better team. That's how the seeding is meant to work, and having one crap division messes with that.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Sat Jan 08, 2011 11:08 pm UTC

Well... not the blowout I was expecting at the half....

EDIT:Halftime during the Saints v. Seahawks game that is.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Sat Jan 08, 2011 11:38 pm UTC

I've only had the game on for a few minutes, but during that time it's actually looked very one-sided in favor of Seattle.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby bentheimmigrant » Sun Jan 09, 2011 12:50 am UTC

How is this even happening? I don't think there's a pundit anywhere but seattle that called this one.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby J the Ninja » Sun Jan 09, 2011 1:09 am UTC

Holy fucking shit. The Seahawks just won. How the hell did we manage that?
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Sun Jan 09, 2011 1:54 am UTC

Something a lot of the football stats websites have been talking about the past couple years, is that the outcome of football games is much more random than we generally think it is. So even when a bad team takes on a good team, they probably still have 1 in 5 chance of winning.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Gears » Sun Jan 09, 2011 6:23 am UTC

Wow, go Seahawks. The Sixburgh Stillers may be on the stairway to Seven (Oh God did I really say that..) As long as the Patriots don't go to the Superbowl..
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Briareos » Sun Jan 09, 2011 8:44 pm UTC

Ravens-Steelers next week. This is going to be huge.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Cathode Ray Sunshine » Sun Jan 09, 2011 9:35 pm UTC

Brees out. Manning out.

Hopefully Brady will be the next victim.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Converge » Sun Jan 09, 2011 11:35 pm UTC

So how bout' them Falcons? I believe if they step up their defense they can do it.


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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby McCaber » Mon Jan 10, 2011 6:44 am UTC

Converge wrote:So how bout' them Falcons? I believe if they step up their defense they can do it.


What a coincidence. I was about to say near the same about my Packers.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:05 pm UTC

McCaber wrote:What a coincidence. I was about to say near the same about my Packers.

Having a run game could certainly help.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Telchar » Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:12 pm UTC

I'm not ready to jump on the Starks bandwagon just yet. He looked good but it was one game. I'll need to see a more complete body of work before I start talking about an awesome Packers backfield next season.

In other news, Marshawn Lynch had ~60 yards on 18 carries before his awesome 67 yard run. He's definitely a boom or bust back.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Oregonaut » Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:15 pm UTC

Yeah, but he owned that one Saint with a stiffarm.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 10, 2011 3:19 pm UTC

Telchar wrote:I'm not ready to jump on the Starks bandwagon just yet. He looked good but it was one game. I'll need to see a more complete body of work before I start talking about an awesome Packers backfield next season.
Neither am I. If the Packers happen to put together any sort of a run game though, that 3 point difference in the last game without a running game, doesn't seem too hard to overcome.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Adacore » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:50 am UTC

Packers looked pretty darn good tonight - maybe now everyone will stop underrating their defence (it's almost criminal that Tramon Williams didn't get the probowl pick)... either way they should be able to beat either the Bears or Seahawks in the championship game (no sure thing, though, of course), so superbowl is looking like it might still happen! I can't see anyone other than the Patriots winning the AFC, so I guess it's probably a Pats-Packers or Pats-Bears superbowl.

Also, I'm seriously hoping Starks does turn out to be the real deal, because I picked him up for my fantasy team (with keepers) in the penultimate week of the regular season.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby StNowhere » Sun Jan 16, 2011 4:09 pm UTC

All I want is for the Seahawks to upset the Bears because

1.) I hate Chicago, and
2.) A 7-9 team hosting the NFC championship would be awesome.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:02 pm UTC

Adacore wrote:(it's almostcriminal that Tramon Williams Aaron Rodgers didn't get the probowl pick)


Why in gods name did they give it to Micheal Vick, over a guy who could do that to the number 1 NFC team. Or for that matter give it to the number 1 NFC teams quarter back that just got tore up by him.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Adacore » Sun Jan 16, 2011 9:57 pm UTC

Dark567 wrote:Why in gods name did they give it to Micheal Vick, over a guy who could do that to the number 1 NFC team. Or for that matter give it to the number 1 NFC teams quarter back that just got tore up by him.

While I agree that Rodgers is probably the most talented QB in the NFC, quarterbacks have the problem of normally being judged largely on the performance of the team as a whole. The Packers were decent this season, but the Eagles and Falcons were (in regular season) better than the Packers; and Vick, at least, had better individual performances than Rodgers did.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Cathode Ray Sunshine » Mon Jan 17, 2011 12:50 am UTC

Cathode Ray Sunshine wrote:Brees out. Manning out.

Hopefully Brady will be the next victim.



Woooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby McCaber » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:10 am UTC

Holy fuck the Jets pulled it off.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby TheGrammarBolshevik » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:13 am UTC

<rageface/>
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:14 am UTC

McCaber wrote:Holy fuck the Jets pulled it off.

Yeah, and with that the Packers become the Vegas favorites to win the Super Bowl.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Brooklynxman » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:50 am UTC

McCaber wrote:Holy fuck the Jets pulled it off.


:D
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby mosc » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:03 pm UTC

Mosc's 4 tiers of NFL quarterbacks:

Tier 1 (you lucky bastards):
Tom Brady
Peyton Manning

Tier 2 (he's awesome):
Aaron Rogers
Drew Brees
Phil Rivers
Ben Rothesberger

Tier 3 (meh, could be worse):
Mark Sanchez
Carson Palmer
Joe Flacco
Matt Schaub
Matt Cassel
Michael Vick
Matt Ryan
Eli Manning

Tier 4 (he sucks):
Everyone else
(honorable mention to Matt Hasselbeck who only reached here because he got old)
(Sam Bradford may not be here for long as well)

another random comment: The 4 final teams are 4 of the 5 best defenses in the league. No accident. Why are people so shocked when the patriots and falcons go down when they have ZERO defense?
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby bentheimmigrant » Mon Jan 17, 2011 4:54 pm UTC

mosc wrote:another random comment: The 4 final teams are 4 of the 5 best defenses in the league. No accident. Why are people so shocked when the patriots and falcons go down when they have ZERO defense?

Because the Pats' offence looked unstoppable for the last 10 weeks of the season. No interceptions in 3 months? That's just crazy. Also, the last Pats-Jets game. It didn't look like much had changed in between. Also also, no one expected Rogers to have a perfect game (in the other game, obviously). The punter AND the kicker never played a snap, because they scored a touchdown on every drive but the first one (a WR fumbled). That is also craziness.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:03 pm UTC

mosc wrote:another random comment: The 4 final teams are 4 of the 5 best defenses in the league. No accident. Why are people so shocked when the patriots and falcons go down when they have ZERO defense?

Yeah. Quite frankly there is a lot of misinformation out there about what makes teams win, good football strategy and misleading statistics. Stats like success rates and efficiency are much more predicative of future performance than total yardage or turnovers. A look at these shows that Atlanta is just straight up overrated and that NE is more vulnerable than the common consensus.


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bentheimmigrant wrote:Also also, no one expected Rogers to have a perfect game (in the other game, obviously). The punter AND the kicker never played a snap, because they scored a touchdown on every drive but the first one (a WR fumbled). That is also craziness.
Really? Rodgers has played almost every playoff game nearly perfectly, he only lost to Arizona last year because the defense gave up 51 points. He has a 121 QB rating in the Playoffs and is the All-time leader in NFL passer rating(Although this is admittedly something that favors young quaterbacks). The packers also made a field goal and a missed a field goal, so the kicker did play a snap, they just never punted.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Adacore » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:17 pm UTC

Maybe it's because I'm a Packers fan, but personally I'd put Rodgers up there with Manning and Brady in the 'elite / tier 1' category. He's certainly better (imo) than Brees or Rivers.

And looking at that chart, the one thought that strikes me is 'how the hell are the Jets still in this'. I've thought since about week 8 of the regular season that the Jets were overrated and a merely mediocre team (a reasonable D, but absolutely no offense), yet somehow they've made the championship game? :shock:

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby mosc » Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:30 pm UTC

Aaron Rogers hasn't won shit, that's the main reason you can't put him as a tier 1. If he wins the superbowl this year, you could make the argument but he doesn't have a COLLECTION of MVP trophies laying around either so even then I'd say you're just a rabid fan. No, he's staunchly in the tier 2 category for too many reasons not related to his individual talent. I think you're not giving enough due to Rivers and Brees as well, they're both amazing quarterbacks.

Jets offense is not bad. They have three receivers who can catch the ball, a decent quarterback, and now that both backs are healthy a real threat to run as well. Really, it's more a wonder their offense doesn't do BETTER than it does. And I'd say their defense is better than mediocre. The steelers and the ravens were both lucky not to have to play the passing games of Brady and Manning. The Jets have the best pass defense in the league. Don't call me a Jets fan though, I picked them to loose to the Steelers.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 6:53 pm UTC

mosc wrote:Aaron Rogers hasn't won shit, that's the main reason you can't put him as a tier 1. If he wins the superbowl this year, you could make the argument but he doesn't have a COLLECTION of MVP trophies laying around either so even then I'd say you're just a rabid fan. No, he's staunchly in the tier 2 category for too many reasons not related to his individual talent. I think you're not giving enough due to Rivers and Brees as well, they're both amazing quarterbacks.

Are we grading QB's by their talent or what they have done? Yes, it is clear that if we tier QB's by trophies, that Aaron Rodgers wouldn't be even close to Manning or Brady. If we tier by talent though I think it gets a lot closer(for Rivers too, Brees is slightly overrated). I mean, Barry Sanders only won one MVP award and no Super Bowls, but is still considered one of the top 5(and generally number 1) RB's in history. Winning is not required to be a good individual player, football is a team sport.

Sanchez isn't good enough to make the Jets offense that good. He averages 6.5 yards per attempt which puts him at 26th, in the league. Passing efficiency is the (reproducible) stat most highly correlated to winning games.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Heisenberg » Mon Jan 17, 2011 7:30 pm UTC

Adacore wrote:And looking at that chart, the one thought that strikes me is 'how the hell are the Jets still in this'.

Look at the teams they beat. The Pats and the Colts rely on their offenses to win games (and the Pats don't have the best offense, they just like to rack up the score against Miami a lot, because Belichek is a douche). The Jets D shut down 2 of the best offenses in the league. The Jets offense did ok against 2 of the worst defenses. It'll be interesting to see how they fare against a substantial Pittsburgh defense.

And yes, Rodgers has won 12 games this year. When he passes, it looks like he's trying to murder someone with the ball. He's definitely Tier 1.

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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby mosc » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:12 pm UTC

Dark567 wrote:Passing efficiency is the (reproducible) stat most highly correlated to winning games*****

****REGULAR SEASON GAMES

I'll agree passing dominates the modern NFL. When it comes to the post season though, defense reins supreme, particularly passing defense. There are 32 teams playing 16 games (16^2 = 256) and only 11 post-season games. In a given season, 4% of games are post-season games so the regular season's 96% dominates your stats. Also, it's hard to separate a defense doing well from an offense doing badly using that stat. Both would have the same effect, don't you think?

I based my tier-ing of quarterbacks based on who you'd want on your team. You want proven winners, not just talent. I rate previous success among the best indicators of future performance. Not the only indicator mind you (or else Eli would be above Aaron, for a stupid example), but a major factor. Rogers has no MVP's, no Superbowls, and just started his 50th game last night! I'm not hating, but you're not realistic either. Until like 8 days ago, the guy had never won a playoff game. He's also not going to put up a Favre/Manning like ironman streak or a Brady like touchdown season. Even by regular season performance, he's not in their league.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Dark567 » Mon Jan 17, 2011 8:36 pm UTC

mosc wrote:
Dark567 wrote:Passing efficiency is the (reproducible) stat most highly correlated to winning games*****

****REGULAR SEASON GAMES

I'll agree passing dominates the modern NFL. When it comes to the post season though, defense reins supreme, particularly passing defense. There are 32 teams playing 16 games (16^2 = 256) and only 11 post-season games. In a given season, 4% of games are post-season games so the regular season's 96% dominates your stats. Also, it's hard to separate a defense doing well from an offense doing badly using that stat. Both would have the same effect, don't you think?

Well, yes the regular season does dominate the stats. The reason why defense(and in particular passing defense) becomes important in the post season is partially because the teams are much more likely to have closer passing efficiencies. Teams commonly make it into the playoffs with bad defenses, teams that go to the playoffs almost always have at least average passing efficiency. This leaves a higher variance of defenses in the playoffs, which will make it often be the differentiator.

I don't think its hard to separate from the defense doing poorly though. The reason why an offences passing efficiency works nice is that is remains relatively stable from game to game, meaning its unlikely its just the defense doing badly. This is why it is better than something like turnover margin for predicting the outcomes of games, which ends up having a higher correlation to winning games, but is completely unreliable from week to week.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby mosc » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:11 pm UTC

Interesting analysis. I agree. Also seems to fit my anecdotal answer as well.
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Heisenberg » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:24 pm UTC

mosc wrote:He's also not going to put up a Favre/Manning like ironman streak or a Brady like touchdown season.

O mighty football prophet, tell us: How many games will the Jaguars win in 2015?
mosc wrote:Even by regular season performance, he's not in their league.

Regular Season Career Passer Ratings:
1 Aaron Rodgers 98.4
2 Philip Rivers 97.2
3 Steve Young 96.8
4 Tony Romo 95.5
5 Tom Brady 95.2
6 Peyton Manning 94.9

Maybe you meant to say "They're not in his league."

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mosc
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby mosc » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:32 pm UTC

8

That stat is meaningless. To fix it, you'd have to pro-rate it against the league average passer rating which has increased drastically over the history of the NFL. If you use that, Rogers would be far lower on the list.
Title: It was given by the XKCD moderators to me because they didn't care what I thought (I made some rantings, etc). I care what YOU think, the joke is forums.xkcd doesn't care what I think.

Heisenberg
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Re: Are you Ready for some "Football"!!! NFL Discussion

Postby Heisenberg » Mon Jan 17, 2011 9:59 pm UTC

The need for adjustment for Steve Young is debatable, but when you're talking about the last three years, it's the same metric in the same NFL. And Rodgers is the best there is.

While passer rating isn't the end-all-be-all, it's certainly better than TDs/season, which is heavily weighted towards whoever has the douchiest coach (right now: Bill Belichek).


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