Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Over. Heroes Win!

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Silknor
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]

Postby Silknor » Mon Jun 14, 2010 3:47 pm UTC

Votals:
1-Bignose (_infina)

I'll allow the cop to cop themselves.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:07 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:What if the cop copped themselves?

@Silknor: Can the Cop cop themselves?

Are you insane?
Surely if a cop cops' himself, then

These were my initial thoughts when I saw this, but I then realised what you were getting at.
Lataro wrote:Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy.
This bit I understood and agree with.
Another interpretation of asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 to be "cleared" by the mafia is, "I am scum and want to know who the cop is so we can kill him N2".
This bit I don't. Surely the cop result wil only say 'Townie', rather than 'Townie Cop'? Which gives the Scum nothing, or am I being thick and you are calling/suggesting Jay is scum?
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:18 pm UTC

I realize that the result would come back town. My point is saying that the cop should cop themselves N1, would then let the scum know since it was put out there in the thread that the N1 investigation target was the cop. Thus, they would know who the cop was. The cop copping himself only helps scum, I can't see a situation that exists where it does not put the cop in needless danger, triply so when the idea to do so is publicly discussed.

Since this would greatly benefit scum, I am saying that his desire to get the cop to cop himself N1 is a scum move.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:21 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:
Lataro wrote:Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy.
This bit I understood and agree with.


Yes, I had considered this but I also wanted to be sure our cop knew this strategy. As it is a newbie game, I hardly think this is unreasonable.

There is nothing to indicate that the cop is a rolecop (a cop who gets your role instead of your alignment - this is important because, as has been stated numerous times, some roles come up differently on alignment checks, such as the Godfather).

I do not agree that it becomes an invalid strategy. A cop doesn't have to do it on N1. Do it anytime you think the mafia suspect you. It's wine for the mafia, which is hardly a bad thing. Unfortunately, as I've stated before, I'm not sure we will have time for the cop to try this. It may just be best for the cop to cop people and hope for the best.

Ninja: I really do not understand why you think the cop would have to cop themselves the first night. I suppose I did not make that clear in my initial posts, but I've addressed it above.

Furthermore, now that the mafia knows this is a strategy and that the cop won't do it because they know, the cop might do it to throw off the mafia. Or not. It's classic wine. Even better, if the cop does cop someone else, and the mafia think the cop copped themselves, they may NK the wrong person the next night. You seem to assume that only one outcome is possible in this entire scenario - that the cop will cop themselves tonight, without a doubt, and that the mafia will, also without a doubt, believe the cop performed that certain action. This is grossly erroneous.
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:25 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:
jayhsu wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.


By copping themselves, they may throw off suspicion from themselves. If you believe Vox's analysis is right (that scum will avoid cop-cleared town), then this does not seem a terrible strategy. But as I said, we might not have enough time for the cop to try this strategy.



Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy. Another interpretation of asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 to be "cleared" by the mafia is, "I am scum and want to know who the cop is so we can kill him N2".

Big Ole Giant FOS on Jayhsu


Rereading your post, with my emphasis. I hardly think I suggested that the cop SHOULD cop themselves N1. I was simply suggesting it was a possible course of action that, as stated in the previous post, may not have been apparent to newbies. Because that is the sort of game we are in. I think your 'interpretation' of my statements is possibly deliberate and does not mix well with your earlier comments about the jester not being pro-town.
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:25 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:
jayhsu wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.


By copping themselves, they may throw off suspicion from themselves. If you believe Vox's analysis is right (that scum will avoid cop-cleared town), then this does not seem a terrible strategy. But as I said, we might not have enough time for the cop to try this strategy.



Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy. Another interpretation of asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 to be "cleared" by the mafia is, "I am scum and want to know who the cop is so we can kill him N2".

Big Ole Giant FOS on Jayhsu


This was the emphasis. Sorry.
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:27 pm UTC

This is probably clear, but I refuse to make any more unwarranted assumptions (as in 1959):

@Silknor: The cop and all spies will ONLY get alignments (NOT roles) of the copped persons, correct?
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:29 pm UTC

Actually, BN, I think that there's been some miscommunication (which apparently Firefox doesn't think is a word?) on my part. That entire thing was meant to have an implied "yeah, you could construe that as a scum tell but I sure wouldn't" behind it. Maybe that wasn't clear? That post was an attempt at helping a player (this is a Newbie, after all). YMMV on effectiveness, of course.

As for your FoS, I have two points. Primarily, I simply forgot about the part where you talked about that. The post I was responding to clearly referred to your "first line of reasoning" (which I thought was odd at the time but then forgot about) and since that post wasn't really meant to talk about my own opinions, I didn't worry about going back to look up what your logic was. Second, I was planning on coming back to your actual argument in the morning, which I do right below this paragraph. It was too late to go back and look up your argument at the time, so I didn't in preference of going to bed and doing it later.

I personally disagree with your line of reasoning - I think we should go for the bad spy before the godfather because having 1 scum with the ability to evade a cop is a much less dangerous thing than an entire mafia team with the ability to safely roleclaim a cop. If people aren't sure why this is a Very Bad Thing I recommend taking a look at 1959 mafia. We had scum supporters in that game that wound up falseclaiming every town power role, and those falseclaims eventually lead to the deaths of all of those power roles. I tend to think that as long as the bad spy is alive, they'll be able to do the same thing with the good spy and the cop.


PreviewNinja'd:There are two possibilities: either the Cop takes the suggestion and cops himself, or he doesn't. Either way, if the Mafia are smart, they'll kill the target.

If he cops himself, then the mafia kill the target to be on the safe side and then there's no cop.
If he doesn't cop himself, then the mafia kill the target to be on the safe side and they killed a confirmed townie.

Confirmed Townies are prime targets for scum because they cut down on the mud and wine that's floating around, and those two things are the scum's primary tools. No matter what, I think the scum will wind up killing the last night's Cop target, so I'd advice specifically against the cop putting himself on that list.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:31 pm UTC

Your suggesting of it, as stated by you yourself, creates wine for the mafia. Wine is never good for town, only for scum. I'm not saying that is the only possible course of events as you have heavily overstated, merely that your suggesting of it as a possible course of events is not very townie.

Ninja'ed:

Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.

You're whole song and dance over this has been pinging me pretty hard, and I feel like there is enough at this time to justify a...

Vote: Jayhsu
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:37 pm UTC

Last post for a bit, unless I am forced to respond to more accusations. Someone may have already said this, in which case sorry:

As we already know, there is also a mafia spy. Because the mafia will know who the cop copped the previous night, it would be wise for the cop to not immediately announce (subtly or otherwise) the results of their investigation the previous night (as this might give away that they are the cop). Should be obvious, but again, newbie game.

Keeneal Ninja: Hmm. You may be right about scum's strategy to lynch confirmed townie. I'm unsure. I do know you've missed one possibility though: the event in which the cop hits a confirmed mafia. It's a 20% chance, but it's there.

Lataro Ninja: Yes, wine is never good for the town. But as only one person in the town besides the cop knows the results of the cop's investigations (whereas all the mafia will soon know of the cops'), wine for the mafia alone seems like not a bad thing.

I think I've explained myself clearly and have been doing my best to elucidate my points for the other town. I am unsure of whether you are mafia, but I now do suspect you more than anyone else.
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Silknor » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:40 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:@Silknor: The cop and all spies will ONLY get alignments (NOT roles) of the copped persons, correct?


Correct. The result will say only that X is Town or Mafia, not the role.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby _infina_ » Mon Jun 14, 2010 4:43 pm UTC

Lataro wrote:Your suggesting of it, as stated by you yourself, creates wine for the mafia. Wine is never good for town, only for scum. I'm not saying that is the only possible course of events as you have heavily overstated, merely that your suggesting of it as a possible course of events is not very townie.

Ninja'ed:

Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.
...

Firstly, it isn't a jester, and secondly, how do you know the discerning bomb will even act like that. Mafia wouldn't hammer anyone with jester-like behavior. That would be a bad tactic for the bomb. You seem scared of something only mafia should be scared of, and by that logic, must be mafia. \
IGMEOY: Lataro
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:03 pm UTC

_infina_ wrote:
Lataro wrote:Your suggesting of it, as stated by you yourself, creates wine for the mafia. Wine is never good for town, only for scum. I'm not saying that is the only possible course of events as you have heavily overstated, merely that your suggesting of it as a possible course of events is not very townie.

Ninja'ed:

Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.
...

Firstly, it isn't a jester, and secondly, how do you know the discerning bomb will even act like that. Mafia wouldn't hammer anyone with jester-like behavior. That would be a bad tactic for the bomb. You seem scared of something only mafia should be scared of, and by that logic, must be mafia. \
IGMEOY: Lataro



Where have I ever said that I think he WILL act like that? I'm saying that since his power activates on being lynched, he will desire to be lynched rather than NK'ed. A townie who on some level or another wants to be lynched isn't guaranteed to act in towns best interest. We can only lynch a couple people before LYLO sets in. Even if he is lynched, there is no guarantee scum will hammer him. If this happens at LYLO where he tries to draw votes to use his power, we lose. As I said in my first or second post, we are now 8/3, if we lynch town, it'll be 6/3 tomorrow. If we mislynch again, we'll be at 4/3 on Day 3. LYLO sets in and if he tried to use his power by getting lynched, he could cost town the game on the spot if scum doesn't hammer him. Thus, that would be being town aligned, as I have never doubted, but not acting in towns best interest, as I have repeatedly stated numerous times in many different ways is my entire point.

Please stop trying to twist my words, it's getting tiresome.
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Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:14 pm UTC

Jay's right on this. There are many situations in which a town-aligned player will not act in the best interests of the town. Vigilantes are a great example. Oftentimes they're aligned pro-town but have a win condition based on them NKing scum. If that kind of vig sees someone he/she thinks is scummy, s/he'll try to get the town to lynch a less-scummy player so that s/he can fulfill his/her win condition that night. Of course, there's a chance that the NK will be blocked, that the Vig will get killed, etc. etc., so it's really in the Town's best interest for the scummier person to be lynched during the day.

Just one example of a Town-aligned player playing against the town's best interests. There are others. A "discerning bomb" could very well be another one... I haven't thought it through completely, though.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:19 pm UTC

Do you mean Lataro?
-Jay

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby keeneal » Mon Jun 14, 2010 5:21 pm UTC

Yes. Whoops!
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Aardvarki » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:06 pm UTC

Sorry about not being on over the weekend, but I mostly play from work during the week. Reading through the post so far, here's what I think:

Regarding BN/_infina_ (plus Keeneal and TLC): This whole mess seems to have stemmed from BN's statements regarding the spy power, and lead to a quick vote by _infina_, as well as TLC suggesting that BN is Mephisto. This seems to mirror what happened D1 of the last newbie game (_infina_ with a quick vote to "draw out bandwagonners"), and if that's _infina_'s goal here, I personally think it's a little silly to try it two games in a row, when he caught so much flak for doing it the first time around. I don't really have anything to say about this fight that Keeneal hasn't already said. As far as TLC's implication that BN is Meph, I'm just going to chalk that (specifically calling out one role instead of scum in general) up to inexperience coupled with the fact that the spy roles are the only "original" (new) roles this game, so of course they're going to be the ones everyone is talking about.

My reads: None, really. I don't think BN's statement was bad, _infina_ did the same quick-vote thing as he did last game (where he was town), TLC jumped to conclusions a little bit but otherwise didn't really step out of line, and Keeneal provided good analysis. All four of them seem pretty neutral.

My Notes: I still don't see why people discuss "we should go after X mafia role first" in small games. Small games never seem to be about "finding X role" so much as just "finding mafia" - and when we find one mafia, we lynch them, regardless of what role they are. I have never once seen a push for "X is the roleblocker/spy/whatever, lets get him" in a game without rolecops, it's always "X is scum, lets get him". Godfather is the exception here, of course.

Regarding Lataro/Jayhsu: This fight seems to have stemmed from Jay's "cop copping themselves" suggestion, which I agree with Lataro on: it is a bad idea. Normally I wouldn't think much of this fight and would chalk it up to Jay making a mistake in a newbie game, but the amount of defense that Jay has put up for himself (five posts worth) in response to a FoS is a little disconcerting to me (yes, the FoS was upgraded to a vote but 4/5 of the posts were before the vote, and the last one was ninja'ed by the vote, so really all five were in response to just the FoS).

My Reads: I've felt that Lataro has looked a little scummy since his implications about the "Jester-Bomb" (who isn't a jester, or independent), so I can see how he could possibly be scum. However, I agree with his statements about the cop strategy and also agree that Jay's suggestion is just spilling wine. Also, I've seen Jay play a few games and I've never seen him get this defensive over something so small (and I was calling him out left and right in 1959). I'm almost sure they're not both scum (because Jay wouldn't get so defensive if he knew it was in-fighting), but I'd put my money on one of them being scum. I'm leaning heavily towards Jay for getting over-defensive.

My Notes: This game will end on or before Night 5, no matter what (3 good lynches = town win, 3 bad lynches = scum win). That means the cop only has, at most, 4 investigations. Wasting one of these investigations on himself at any point in the game is a bad idea, in my opinion.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby ElectricHaze » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:22 pm UTC

Well, it seems like some interesting stuff has happened so far. So here's what I think...

OK, I think Mephisto is key. He gives the whole mafia bonus information, so as long as he is around every member of the mafia is stronger. That said what is important here is how that information will impact the actions of the mafia. As far as theories go this strikes me as a bit odd.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.

I can't see any reason for a scum to not just NK a confirmed townie. As long as the cleared townies are alive their actions can only hurt the mafia. I suspect the mafia will mostly NK any investigated townies the following night to keep the game as muddy as possible for them. The suggestion that mafia would avoid killing confirmed townies just seems off to me.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:On the other hand, it's pointless to speculate over who we should lynch first because we're not going to be offered all three mafia members on a platter and asked to choose between them. We're just going to have to work from their slip-ups.

This, however, is spot on. Anyone who is talking about how we should try and target one member of the mafia or another is just talking nonsense. Yes it would be great if we could target Baal or Mephisto, but there is no way to draw them out specifically. We just have to get everyone talking and try to catch a scum slipping up. If we get a scum great, we are closer to winning, and if that scum happens to have a power role even better, but I don't see how we are going to draw out anyone specifically.

In terms of talking and slip ups
jayhsu wrote:
tastelikecoke wrote:
A cop claim seems to be illogical at the side of the cop, since he already have a secretary for that. Once Akara gets killed the game will start to heat up. Cops will claim everywhere
.


Unfortunately, the good spy does not know who the cop is.

Vox Imperatoris wrote:
I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves. On the other hand, it's pointless to speculate over who we should lynch first because we're not going to be offered all three mafia members on a platter and asked to choose between them. We're just going to have to work from their slip-ups.



What if the cop copped themselves?


This looks like he is suggesting that the cop investigate himself so that his secretary knows who he is. I don't know what you are thinking here. Since the cop is not a rolecop this serves no purpose. It would just look like the cop investigated a random townie. The spy wouldn't get anything out of this unless he was given a clue that the move was coming, in which case the mafia could have just as easily picked up on it and we have a NKed cop and a wasted investigation. The only scenario in which it works is if there was a clue given that the move was coming, and our spy picks up on it, and the mafia doesn't. Even if it does work it will only make the cop a target, being a confirmed townie to the mafia, for reasons I stated above. This would be unbelievably risky for little to no reward, and seems like a scummy suggestion to me.

Next slip up
Lataro wrote:Now you are trying to twist my well explained words again regarding the jester. I did not say he was aligned against the town, simply that his desire to get lynched could create a situation where he isn't acting in towns explicit best interests.


People seem to be jumping all over this. As I understand it, it seems like Lataro is using the term Jester because the ability is activated on lynch, thus it is similar to the Jester role that wins if he is lynched, and it is a more familiar term and easier to type than stygian doll. From what I see it started with Lataro was pointing out that if this role acted like a jester (trying to get themselves lynched and hoping to use their ability on scum) then it could cause problems for the town with wine and such. At no point do I see him ever saying he thought the Stygian doll, which I will simply call the bomb from now on cause it's easier and I think a better term than Jester, was scum aligned. The closest he ever came was saying it might be a 50-50 win condition with lynch + town win(sort of like the way the jester is set up in Bastard Mafia). While, I think his fears of Jester-like behavior are unlikely to come true since I think it would be obvious bad play, it is a newbie game so it is possible that the bomb plays it that way. Anyways I think the attack on Lataro is overly aggressive and lacking evidence, and is being perpetuated by Jayhsu who I'm already a little suspicious of for his suggestion that the cop investigate himself.

I was thinking of just FoS here, but I think I'm going to go ahead and full on:
vote: Jayshu

ninja'd
Aardvarki wrote:Regarding BN/_infina_ (plus Keeneal and TLC): This whole mess seems to have stemmed from BN's statements regarding the spy power, and lead to a quick vote by _infina_, as well as TLC suggesting that BN is Mephisto. This seems to mirror what happened D1 of the last newbie game (_infina_ with a quick vote to "draw out bandwagonners"), and if that's _infina_'s goal here, I personally think it's a little silly to try it two games in a row, when he caught so much flak for doing it the first time around. I don't really have anything to say about this fight that Keeneal hasn't already said. As far as TLC's implication that BN is Meph, I'm just going to chalk that (specifically calling out one role instead of scum in general) up to inexperience coupled with the fact that the spy roles are the only "original" (new) roles this game, so of course they're going to be the ones everyone is talking about.

My reads: None, really. I don't think BN's statement was bad, _infina_ did the same quick-vote thing as he did last game (where he was town), TLC jumped to conclusions a little bit but otherwise didn't really step out of line, and Keeneal provided good analysis. All four of them seem pretty neutral.

My Notes: I still don't see why people discuss "we should go after X mafia role first" in small games. Small games never seem to be about "finding X role" so much as just "finding mafia" - and when we find one mafia, we lynch them, regardless of what role they are. I have never once seen a push for "X is the roleblocker/spy/whatever, lets get him" in a game without rolecops, it's always "X is scum, lets get him". Godfather is the exception here, of course.


Missed this fight in my post... I didn't really think much of it really. I didn't get much of a read out of any of it other than TLC is still a bit crazy and difficult to follow. I've mostly ignored it because it is so similar to what happened in Transformers, and I would rather wait to see if it develops any more.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:28 pm UTC

I agree with Lataro that jayhsu's idea of having the cop cop himself is very bad and would likely mean the death of the cop. However, Lataro is trying to take that little tactical mistake and turn it into an obvious sign that jayhsu is scum. I don't think this is justified by the situation, and it looks to me like Lataro himself is simply trying to manufacture a case for lynching someone prematurely. That's a favorite tactic of the mafia: seizing upon some silly error that players make, like calling for no lynch, and turning that into an ironclad case that the player who made the mistake is scum. Now, jayhsu is experienced, so I would agree with lynching him if he called for no lynch or something else everyone should know is a bad idea, but my impression from his posts is that he made an honest mistake, and Lataro is trying to railroad this into a lynch. I don't think the Stygian Doll thing is relevant to this, really.

Vote: Lataro
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:30 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:OK, I think Mephisto is key. He gives the whole mafia bonus information, so as long as he is around every member of the mafia is stronger. That said what is important here is how that information will impact the actions of the mafia. As far as theories go this strikes me as a bit odd.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.

I can't see any reason for a scum to not just NK a confirmed townie. As long as the cleared townies are alive their actions can only hurt the mafia. I suspect the mafia will mostly NK any investigated townies the following night to keep the game as muddy as possible for them. The suggestion that mafia would avoid killing confirmed townies just seems off to me.


I was unclear: I meant that scum will avoid going after confirmed townies in the Day, while picking them off at Night. That way, they reduce their risk to a minimum and maximize the chance that the town will mis-lynch.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby ElectricHaze » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:39 pm UTC

Vox Imperatoris wrote:I was unclear: I meant that scum will avoid going after confirmed townies in the Day, while picking them off at Night. That way, they reduce their risk to a minimum and maximize the chance that the town will mis-lynch.


Fair enough.

Vox Imperatoris wrote:That's a favorite tactic of the mafia: seizing upon some silly error that players make, like calling for no lynch, and turning that into an ironclad case that the player who made the mistake is scum.

You seem to be condemning Lataro for this, but at the same time ignoring that Jayshu seemed to be doing exactly that with his constant attack on Lataro for comparing the bomb role to the Jester role. In terms of "silly errors" calling for the cop to investigate himself, which would waste an investigation and likely get our cop killed, is a big one.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]

Postby Silknor » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:50 pm UTC

Votals:
1-Bignose (_infina)
2-Jayhsu (Lataro, ElectricHaze)
1-Lataro (Vox)

6 to lynch.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:52 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:That's a favorite tactic of the mafia: seizing upon some silly error that players make, like calling for no lynch, and turning that into an ironclad case that the player who made the mistake is scum.

You seem to be condemning Lataro for this, but at the same time ignoring that Jayshu seemed to be doing exactly that with his constant attack on Lataro for comparing the bomb role to the Jester role. In terms of "silly errors" calling for the cop to investigate himself, which would waste an investigation and likely get our cop killed, is a big one.


It's true, jayhsu didn't exactly come off as suspicion-less to me, and I considered voting for him, but I just got more of a bad feeling from Lataro. I think it's very likely that one of the two is scum, and I'm afraid that if we lynch jayhsu we'll be playing into Lataro's hands by going for a lynch he pretty much engineered by himself. It's true that jayhsu's suggestion is bad, but it's precisely because it's so stupid that I doubt a member of the mafia would suggest it unless he seriously thought that the town would go through with it without thinking. I mean, what's more likely: the mafia come up with a perfect suggestion with which to fool the town into giving away the cop, only to be foiled by Lataro, or a misguided townie tries to come up with a suggestion to protect the cop, which is jumped upon by mafia looking for an easy lynch?
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:55 pm UTC

ElectricHaze wrote:In terms of talking and slip ups
jayhsu wrote:
tastelikecoke wrote:
A cop claim seems to be illogical at the side of the cop, since he already have a secretary for that. Once Akara gets killed the game will start to heat up. Cops will claim everywhere
.


Unfortunately, the good spy does not know who the cop is.

Vox Imperatoris wrote:
I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves. On the other hand, it's pointless to speculate over who we should lynch first because we're not going to be offered all three mafia members on a platter and asked to choose between them. We're just going to have to work from their slip-ups.



What if the cop copped themselves?


This looks like he is suggesting that the cop investigate himself so that his secretary knows who he is. I don't know what you are thinking here. Since the cop is not a rolecop this serves no purpose. It would just look like the cop investigated a random townie. The spy wouldn't get anything out of this unless he was given a clue that the move was coming, in which case the mafia could have just as easily picked up on it and we have a NKed cop and a wasted investigation. The only scenario in which it works is if there was a clue given that the move was coming, and our spy picks up on it, and the mafia doesn't. Even if it does work it will only make the cop a target, being a confirmed townie to the mafia, for reasons I stated above. This would be unbelievably risky for little to no reward, and seems like a scummy suggestion to me.


I posited the idea because Vox has previously suggested that the mafia might be able to figure out who the cop was based on who they were copping. The idea is that if the cop copped themselves, they might throw off the mafia. Currently though, I think I agree with Keeneal, that this isn't really a viable strategy (and again, we just don't have time (I've said this 2 or three times now) - as Aardvarki stated, the game will be over by N5 (I should have done the analysis myself, I believe you are correct - actually, have you taken into consideration the town doll? No, wait, I think you're right again).


@Aardvarki:
-I did post 5 times, 4 of which were before Lataro's vote. However: one was a question to the mod to clear something up (as I have learned to do after a very incorrect assumption in 1959) and one was an ebwop as I had not bolded the part I wanted to emphasize.
-I realize I may have been coming off as overdefensive. However, I just wanted to be clear about my thoughts with as little ambiguity as possible (I don't think I've really been attacked hard in any game we've played thus far either). At this point I think I agree that a self-cop would not be helpful. I simply had not done the complete think-through from the beginning (thanks to Keeneal for this).

Ninja by EH: If you count mentioning it twice as constant, then yes, I have been constantly attacking Lataro.

Ninja by Vox: Unfortunately, that's something of a wifom argument. But thank you for defense. Also unfortunately, I am not sure I think Lataro is scum anymore either. I think he misinterpreted what I said.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:57 pm UTC

Regarding Jayhsu: I recognise where he's coming from. Indeed, I feel a need to extend it for the same reason.

I think this only applies to the cop and his assistant, but everyone has been mentioning if he cops' himself, or a Townie, but someone also mentioned a chance at copping scum:

If the cop targets a Townie or the GF, then he will get a Townie indication. Obviously the scum will not NK their own GF (are they even allowed to?), so whether scum NK the cops target or not , MAY indicate finding the GF, or simply the scum being scum and spilling wine for the cop.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby jayhsu » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:04 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:Keeneal Ninja: Hmm. You may be right about scum's strategy to lynch confirmed townie. I'm unsure. I do know you've missed one possibility though: the event in which the cop hits a confirmed mafia. It's a 20% chance, but it's there.


I think you are referring to this post, BN.

Also, I had not thought of that (regarding a cop hitting GF). Of course, there's so much wifom-principle that it would be hard for the cop to trust that just because a confirmed townie wasn't NKed means that they're GF.

Still, I guess it is technically 30%, but because GF shows up town, it's 20%.

I guess I feel bad for the cop in this game. They've really got their work cut out for them... My job as vanilla adventurer is relatively easy by comparison.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby BigNose » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:28 pm UTC

jayhsu wrote:
jayhsu wrote:Keeneal Ninja: Hmm. You may be right about scum's strategy to lynch confirmed townie. I'm unsure. I do know you've missed one possibility though: the event in which the cop hits a confirmed mafia. It's a 20% chance, but it's there.


I think you are referring to this post, BN.

Also, I had not thought of that (regarding a cop hitting GF). Of course, there's so much wifom-principle that it would be hard for the cop to trust that just because a confirmed townie wasn't NKed means that they're GF.

Still, I guess it is technically 30%, but because GF shows up town, it's 20%.

I guess I feel bad for the cop in this game. They've really got their work cut out for them... My job as vanilla adventurer is relatively easy by comparison.

You know, that last paragraph just pings me. Your post was complete and would've been fine until then, but it's almost like you are either the Cop, his assistant or scum. There just wasn't enough of a reason to justify it. It's like a 'nothing here, nothing to see, move on'/'smoke and mirrors' touch.
My trouble is, I don't know which.
It's only because you could be the cop or his assistant that stays my vote for now.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:39 pm UTC

BigNose wrote:
jayhsu wrote:I guess I feel bad for the cop in this game. They've really got their work cut out for them... My job as vanilla adventurer is relatively easy by comparison.

You know, that last paragraph just pings me. Your post was complete and would've been fine until then, but it's almost like you are either the Cop, his assistant or scum. There just wasn't enough of a reason to justify it. It's like a 'nothing here, nothing to see, move on'/'smoke and mirrors' touch.
My trouble is, I don't know which.
It's only because you could be the cop or his assistant that stays my vote for now.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who found that odd. Claiming vanilla town isn't normally something that vanilla town would do - there's no point, and it only serves to make more wine. I don't know what you are, but I'm willing to bet it's not what you say you are. I'm saving a long, in-depth post, probably with a vote, for when I'm bored at work tonight and having nothing else to do, but you'd better believe IGMEOY, jayhsu
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:01 pm UTC

Okay, that's the last straw: I hate to be a vote-hopper, but jayhsu is making it pretty much impossible not to be. With that "claim" added into the rest of his actions during the game, he's got to either be scum or be playing very poorly. It's one thing to make an anti-town mistake regarding a novel mechanic that one isn't expected to be familiar with, but to both make an anti-town mistake and then follow it up with an action that everyone knows does nothing to help the town (claiming vanilla townie) crosses the line. Since this is a newbie game, let me explain why claiming vanilla is bad: even if we could trust jayhsu and take his word that he is a townie as proven fact, it narrows down targets for the mafia in their hunt for the cop, boosting their odds of a successful hit. Thus, as jayhsu has put a big target on himself saying "I'm not the cop", the mafia's odds of killing the cop go up from 1/8 to 1/7. Of course, if jayhsu is mafia, then that's the only claim he could make. I remain a bit suspicious of Lataro (especially if jayhsu happens to turn out town), but I'm going to have to change my vote for now.

Unvote: Lataro
Vote: jayhsu
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby _infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:17 am UTC

Aardvarki wrote:Sorry about not being on over the weekend, but I mostly play from work during the week. Reading through the post so far, here's what I think:

Regarding BN/_infina_ (plus Keeneal and TLC): This whole mess seems to have stemmed from BN's statements regarding the spy power, and lead to a quick vote by _infina_, as well as TLC suggesting that BN is Mephisto. This seems to mirror what happened D1 of the last newbie game (_infina_ with a quick vote to "draw out bandwagonners"), and if that's _infina_'s goal here, I personally think it's a little silly to try it two games in a row, when he caught so much flak for doing it the first time around. I don't really have anything to say about this fight that Keeneal hasn't already said. As far as TLC's implication that BN is Meph, I'm just going to chalk that (specifically calling out one role instead of scum in general) up to inexperience coupled with the fact that the spy roles are the only "original" (new) roles this game, so of course they're going to be the ones everyone is talking about.

My reads: None, really. I don't think BN's statement was bad, _infina_ did the same quick-vote thing as he did last game (where he was town), TLC jumped to conclusions a little bit but otherwise didn't really step out of line, and Keeneal provided good analysis. All four of them seem pretty neutral.

My Notes: I still don't see why people discuss "we should go after X mafia role first" in small games. Small games never seem to be about "finding X role" so much as just "finding mafia" - and when we find one mafia, we lynch them, regardless of what role they are. I have never once seen a push for "X is the roleblocker/spy/whatever, lets get him" in a game without rolecops, it's always "X is scum, lets get him". Godfather is the exception here, of course.
Spoiler:
Regarding Lataro/Jayhsu: This fight seems to have stemmed from Jay's "cop copping themselves" suggestion, which I agree with Lataro on: it is a bad idea. Normally I wouldn't think much of this fight and would chalk it up to Jay making a mistake in a newbie game, but the amount of defense that Jay has put up for himself (five posts worth) in response to a FoS is a little disconcerting to me (yes, the FoS was upgraded to a vote but 4/5 of the posts were before the vote, and the last one was ninja'ed by the vote, so really all five were in response to just the FoS).

My Reads: I've felt that Lataro has looked a little scummy since his implications about the "Jester-Bomb" (who isn't a jester, or independent), so I can see how he could possibly be scum. However, I agree with his statements about the cop strategy and also agree that Jay's suggestion is just spilling wine. Also, I've seen Jay play a few games and I've never seen him get this defensive over something so small (and I was calling him out left and right in 1959). I'm almost sure they're not both scum (because Jay wouldn't get so defensive if he knew it was in-fighting), but I'd put my money on one of them being scum. I'm leaning heavily towards Jay for getting over-defensive.

My Notes: This game will end on or before Night 5, no matter what (3 good lynches = town win, 3 bad lynches = scum win). That means the cop only has, at most, 4 investigations. Wasting one of these investigations on himself at any point in the game is a bad idea, in my opinion.

I quite honestly believe BN is scum. Once Mephisto and Diablo are lynched, it is as if there are no power roles on either side, and the GF will be just another goon that we must sniff out as if in a completely vanilla game. Baal's only power is to hide from the cop, but other mafia could hide among us just the same as Baal if there were no cop. The way he is posting, trying to worry us about the GF, causes me to think he is either Mephisto or Diablo. My vote stands, as it will unless someone more scummy appears with a chance for hammering.
Vox Imperatoris wrote:Okay, that's the last straw: I hate to be a vote-hopper, but jayhsu is making it pretty much impossible not to be. With that "claim" added into the rest of his actions during the game, he's got to either be scum or be playing very poorly. It's one thing to make an anti-town mistake regarding a novel mechanic that one isn't expected to be familiar with, but to both make an anti-town mistake and then follow it up with an action that everyone knows does nothing to help the town (claiming vanilla townie) crosses the line. Since this is a newbie game, let me explain why claiming vanilla is bad: even if we could trust jayhsu and take his word that he is a townie as proven fact, it narrows down targets for the mafia in their hunt for the cop, boosting their odds of a successful hit. Thus, as jayhsu has put a big target on himself saying "I'm not the cop", the mafia's odds of killing the cop go up from 1/8 to 1/7. Of course, if jayhsu is mafia, then that's the only claim he could make. I remain a bit suspicious of Lataro (especially if jayhsu happens to turn out town), but I'm going to have to change my vote for now. ...

Unless he is the cop. It makes perfect sense for jayhsu to be either cop or mafia, so we should wait and see there.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby ElectricHaze » Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:46 am UTC

I can believe BN is scum. He seems a little off, but I'm not sure why. Maybe I just don't like the way he presents his analysis. In Bastard mafia I had the same feeling and he turned out to be town... In fact everyone I seem to suspect it seems turns out to be town.

In this case, I think Lataro and Jay are the ones we should be looking at. The way this fight is going I'm pretty certain at least one of them is scum. Jays townie claim is really weird. It seems a little desperate since he is no where close to being lynched yet. I don't really know what he was trying to do there. If he is scum and it works then it is a death sentence for day 2. If he is town and it works it seems like a death sentence for night 1. If he is a town power role then it is monumentally stupid to claim this early since if it works and he gets night killed anyway then the town is in a bad way. I think he still has/had plenty of time to argue his way out of this so I don't know what to think of the claim here. Seems pretty suspicious to me.

PS. @Jay I went back over the first page, and I have to say I jumped the gun about your comments about the Jester bomb thing. I guess it stuck out to me since it was the first thing you said, and when you brought it back up I just assumed it had been more aggressive than it actually was. That was a bad argument, and I was going to downgrade my vote to a FoS because of it, but I'll keep it as a vote for now, unless you can defend your roleclaim here.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:16 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:Unless he is the cop. It makes perfect sense for jayhsu to be either cop or mafia, so we should wait and see there.

You'd think so, but there's a big big piece missing. A vanilla townie claim on D1 really ought to set off big red alarms on your scumdar. Either he's trying to hint at being the cop/spy or he's slipped up big time. He's a decent player... if he wanted to leave hints he could do it better than that. It wasn't a rookie mistake. Either he's sending a message or he slipped up. I think he slipped up.

VOTE: Jayhsu

BTW, _infina_, all shades of red are reserved for Forum Moderators when using their Mod Voices. It's probably something to stay away from using casually in a post as a courtesy to them. :)
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 2:22 am UTC

Quick post to ask people to hold off on hammering, if they intend to do so, until I can finish up my analysis of jayhsu - I'm 8/11ths of the way done, so it shouldn't be much longer.

Thanks.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby _infina_ » Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:43 am UTC

keeneal wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Unless he is the cop. It makes perfect sense for jayhsu to be either cop or mafia, so we should wait and see there.

You'd think so, but there's a big big piece missing. A vanilla townie claim on D1 really ought to set off big red alarms on your scumdar. Either he's trying to hint at being the cop/spy or he's slipped up big time. He's a decent player... if he wanted to leave hints he could do it better than that. It wasn't a rookie mistake. Either he's sending a message or he slipped up. I think he slipped up.

...

BTW, _infina_, all shades of red are reserved for Forum Moderators when using their Mod Voices. It's probably something to stay away from using casually in a post as a courtesy to them. :)

Didn't know that :oops: , thanks for the info. If I could, I would go back and edit the color to blue, perhaps. The bold I put on it didn't seem to put enough emphasis on the is, as it were. I again ask that you wait on jayhsu, because I feel like Lataro is scummier.
As I see it, leaving myself out, of course:
Town
Vox
Aardvarki
TLC
weiyaoli
PE
keeneal
EH
jayhsu
Lataro
BN
Scum
I kind of learned a little lesson on the role-claiming in the last newbie game, and claiming vanilla may be the truth. Most of the votes I saw were because of that. Any strategy can go awry with an improper wording. I will wait and see what becomes of this.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:17 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:
keeneal wrote:
_infina_ wrote:Unless he is the cop. It makes perfect sense for jayhsu to be either cop or mafia, so we should wait and see there.

You'd think so, but there's a big big piece missing. A vanilla townie claim on D1 really ought to set off big red alarms on your scumdar. Either he's trying to hint at being the cop/spy or he's slipped up big time. He's a decent player... if he wanted to leave hints he could do it better than that. It wasn't a rookie mistake. Either he's sending a message or he slipped up. I think he slipped up.

...

BTW, _infina_, all shades of red are reserved for Forum Moderators when using their Mod Voices. It's probably something to stay away from using casually in a post as a courtesy to them. :)

Didn't know that :oops: , thanks for the info. If I could, I would go back and edit the color to blue, perhaps. The bold I put on it didn't seem to put enough emphasis on the is, as it were. I again ask that you wait on jayhsu, because I feel like Lataro is scummier.
As I see it, leaving myself out, of course:
Town
Vox
Aardvarki
TLC
weiyaoli
PE
keeneal
EH
jayhsu
Lataro
BN
Scum
I kind of learned a little lesson on the role-claiming in the last newbie game, and claiming vanilla may be the truth. Most of the votes I saw were because of that. Any strategy can go awry with an improper wording. I will wait and see what becomes of this.


That's funny, because in reading though, it seems you and Vox are most linked to defending in one way or another Jayhsu. The only difference so far has been if Vox were scum, he knew when a scum mate was going down and needed to be bussed to distance himself.

As I see it, if Jayhsu comes back scum, you and Vox are my top suspects for being his scum mates. I had been holding off on posting about Vox seeming tied in some way til someone else wanted to go expose themselves.
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:18 am UTC

_infina_ wrote:Unless he is the cop. It makes perfect sense for jayhsu to be either cop or mafia, so we should wait and see there.


If he's a cop, he's a really, really bad cop. I don't buy it: jayhsu is pretty experienced, and he should know better than to act the way he's acting if he's the cop. Also, that would mean he lied, and lying is one of the most anti-town things you can do.

_infina_ wrote:As I see it, leaving myself out, of course:
Town
Vox
Aardvarki
TLC
weiyaoli
PE
keeneal
EH
jayhsu
Lataro
BN
Scum


Is this a scum continuum? I'm honored to be on top of the town, then. :)
Although this might make me a target for the mafia...
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PhoenixEnigma
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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby PhoenixEnigma » Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:52 am UTC

OK, time for a glimpse into the Enigma's Mind:

First, current, unoffical votals, so I know where we stand, at least:
1 - BigNose (_infina)
4 - Jayhsu (Lataro, ElectricHaze, Vox, keeneal)
6 to lynch

Next, a look at Jayhsu, because my gut instinct is that they are kind of scummy:
Post 1
Spoiler:
Jayhsu wrote:No, the discerning bomb is definitely pro town. Unless you're assuming this is a bastard game and the mods are lying, there is no reason not to think they are. It is strange that you are misstating what I believe is very clear in the rules. They don't explode on town hammer - how can you get more pro-town than that?
Argues the discerning bomb is pro town. I agree with the logic, more or less. Fairly town.

Post 2 + 3
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
tastelikecoke wrote:A cop claim seems to be illogical at the side of the cop, since he already have a secretary for that. Once Akara gets killed the game will start to heat up. Cops will claim everywhere.


Unfortunately, the good spy does not know who the cop is.

Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves. On the other hand, it's pointless to speculate over who we should lynch first because we're not going to be offered all three mafia members on a platter and asked to choose between them. We're just going to have to work from their slip-ups.


What if the cop copped themselves?

@Silknor: Can the Cop cop themselves?


jayhsu wrote:Ebwop: It is a smallish game, however, and we may not be able to afford a wasted night.
Obvious statement is obvious. Asking if the cop can investigate themselves is pretty strange, though. Taken in isolation, I don't it so much scummy as bizzare.

Post 4
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.


By copping themselves, they may throw off suspicion from themselves. If you believe Vox's analysis is right (that scum will avoid cop-cleared town), then this does not seem a terrible strategy. But as I said, we might not have enough time for the cop to try this strategy.
Gives a not-bad justification for a self-copping cop. Honestly, the logic is protown, but by mentioning it the strategy is mostly ruined (and therefore, less townish). Between the two, I'd call it neutral.

Post 5
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
BigNose wrote:
Lataro wrote:Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy.
This bit I understood and agree with.


Yes, I had considered this but I also wanted to be sure our cop knew this strategy. As it is a newbie game, I hardly think this is unreasonable.

There is nothing to indicate that the cop is a rolecop (a cop who gets your role instead of your alignment - this is important because, as has been stated numerous times, some roles come up differently on alignment checks, such as the Godfather).

I do not agree that it becomes an invalid strategy. A cop doesn't have to do it on N1. Do it anytime you think the mafia suspect you. It's wine for the mafia, which is hardly a bad thing. Unfortunately, as I've stated before, I'm not sure we will have time for the cop to try this. It may just be best for the cop to cop people and hope for the best.

Ninja: I really do not understand why you think the cop would have to cop themselves the first night. I suppose I did not make that clear in my initial posts, but I've addressed it above.

Furthermore, now that the mafia knows this is a strategy and that the cop won't do it because they know, the cop might do it to throw off the mafia. Or not. It's classic wine. Even better, if the cop does cop someone else, and the mafia think the cop copped themselves, they may NK the wrong person the next night. You seem to assume that only one outcome is possible in this entire scenario - that the cop will cop themselves tonight, without a doubt, and that the mafia will, also without a doubt, believe the cop performed that certain action. This is grossly erroneous.
Reading this, it sounds like Jayhsu is subtly pushing for the cop to investigate themself, which would be consistant with what scum would want. Points out this situation creates a lot of wine, and seems to think this is a good thing. I fail to see how mud and wine make things better for town at all - that's something that tends to benefit mafia more. Overall, scummy, but I can see other interpertations.

Post 6 (Note: edited to include actual emphasis)
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
Lataro wrote:
jayhsu wrote:
Vox Imperatoris wrote:I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves.


By copping themselves, they may throw off suspicion from themselves. If you believe Vox's analysis is right (that scum will avoid cop-cleared town), then this does not seem a terrible strategy. But as I said, we might not have enough time for the cop to try this strategy.



Obviously, once this is stated in thread for all to read, it becomes a completely invalid strategy. Another interpretation of asking for the cop to cop themselves N1 to be "cleared" by the mafia is, "I am scum and want to know who the cop is so we can kill him N2".

Big Ole Giant FOS on Jayhsu


Rereading your post, with my emphasis. I hardly think I suggested that the cop SHOULD cop themselves N1. I was simply suggesting it was a possible course of action that, as stated in the previous post, may not have been apparent to newbies. Because that is the sort of game we are in. I think your 'interpretation' of my statements is possibly deliberate and does not mix well with your earlier comments about the jester not being pro-town.
Defending against Lataro drawing the same conclusions I did from jayshu's last post. Slightly aggressive, but not a terrible defence. Defense does not a scummy post undo, though. Neutral in and of itself.

Post 7
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:This is probably clear, but I refuse to make any more unwarranted assumptions (as in 1959):

@Silknor: The cop and all spies will ONLY get alignments (NOT roles) of the copped persons, correct?
Just asking for some clarification, nothing to see here.

Post 8
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:Last post for a bit, unless I am forced to respond to more accusations. Someone may have already said this, in which case sorry:

As we already know, there is also a mafia spy. Because the mafia will know who the cop copped the previous night, it would be wise for the cop to not immediately announce (subtly or otherwise) the results of their investigation the previous night (as this might give away that they are the cop). Should be obvious, but again, newbie game.

Keeneal Ninja: Hmm. You may be right about scum's strategy to lynch confirmed townie. I'm unsure. I do know you've missed one possibility though: the event in which the cop hits a confirmed mafia. It's a 20% chance, but it's there.

Lataro Ninja: Yes, wine is never good for the town. But as only one person in the town besides the cop knows the results of the cop's investigations (whereas all the mafia will soon know of the cops'), wine for the mafia alone seems like not a bad thing.

I think I've explained myself clearly and have been doing my best to elucidate my points for the other town. I am unsure of whether you are mafia, but I now do suspect you more than anyone else.
Obvious but useful advice to a newbie cop. Points out most of this speculation is beside the point if the cop correctly picks scum tonight. Argues that self-copping creates more wine for mafia than town. I can understand the logic here, but I don't agree with it. Continues to suspect Lataro.

Post 9
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:Do you mean Lataro?
Just some clarification, nothing important.

Post 10
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
ElectricHaze wrote:In terms of talking and slip ups
jayhsu wrote:
tastelikecoke wrote:
A cop claim seems to be illogical at the side of the cop, since he already have a secretary for that. Once Akara gets killed the game will start to heat up. Cops will claim everywhere
.


Unfortunately, the good spy does not know who the cop is.

Vox Imperatoris wrote:
I think Mephisto helps the scum a lot more than that. You're forgetting that the scum will also know who has already been cleared by the cop as innocent, so will avoid going after those people and thus be less likely to reveal themselves. On the other hand, it's pointless to speculate over who we should lynch first because we're not going to be offered all three mafia members on a platter and asked to choose between them. We're just going to have to work from their slip-ups.



What if the cop copped themselves?


This looks like he is suggesting that the cop investigate himself so that his secretary knows who he is. I don't know what you are thinking here. Since the cop is not a rolecop this serves no purpose. It would just look like the cop investigated a random townie. The spy wouldn't get anything out of this unless he was given a clue that the move was coming, in which case the mafia could have just as easily picked up on it and we have a NKed cop and a wasted investigation. The only scenario in which it works is if there was a clue given that the move was coming, and our spy picks up on it, and the mafia doesn't. Even if it does work it will only make the cop a target, being a confirmed townie to the mafia, for reasons I stated above. This would be unbelievably risky for little to no reward, and seems like a scummy suggestion to me.


I posited the idea because Vox has previously suggested that the mafia might be able to figure out who the cop was based on who they were copping. The idea is that if the cop copped themselves, they might throw off the mafia. Currently though, I think I agree with Keeneal, that this isn't really a viable strategy (and again, we just don't have time (I've said this 2 or three times now) - as Aardvarki stated, the game will be over by N5 (I should have done the analysis myself, I believe you are correct - actually, have you taken into consideration the town doll? No, wait, I think you're right again).


@Aardvarki:
-I did post 5 times, 4 of which were before Lataro's vote. However: one was a question to the mod to clear something up (as I have learned to do after a very incorrect assumption in 1959) and one was an ebwop as I had not bolded the part I wanted to emphasize.
-I realize I may have been coming off as overdefensive. However, I just wanted to be clear about my thoughts with as little ambiguity as possible (I don't think I've really been attacked hard in any game we've played thus far either). At this point I think I agree that a self-cop would not be helpful. I simply had not done the complete think-through from the beginning (thanks to Keeneal for this).

Ninja by EH: If you count mentioning it twice as constant, then yes, I have been constantly attacking Lataro.

Ninja by Vox: Unfortunately, that's something of a wifom argument. But thank you for defense. Also unfortunately, I am not sure I think Lataro is scum anymore either. I think he misinterpreted what I said.
Agrees the cop investigating themselves would be a bad idea, and there isn't really time for it. That's pretty much what everyone else had already been saying, and it's easy to flip sides and agree. Acknowledges has been attacking Lataro, but suddenly backs off. Mildly scummy feel.

Post 11
Spoiler:
jayhsu wrote:
jayhsu wrote:Keeneal Ninja: Hmm. You may be right about scum's strategy to lynch confirmed townie. I'm unsure. I do know you've missed one possibility though: the event in which the cop hits a confirmed mafia. It's a 20% chance, but it's there.


I think you are referring to this post, BN.

Also, I had not thought of that (regarding a cop hitting GF). Of course, there's so much wifom-principle that it would be hard for the cop to trust that just because a confirmed townie wasn't NKed means that they're GF.

Still, I guess it is technically 30%, but because GF shows up town, it's 20%.

I guess I feel bad for the cop in this game. They've really got their work cut out for them... My job as vanilla adventurer is relatively easy by comparison.
Points out this is a tough game for the cop. Then claims vanilla town. This is really, really odd. Pretty much any role claim D1 is going to set off flags for me, and vanilla town even more so (since it's easy to do, and very hard to counterclaim). Very scummy, to my eyes.


End result: I feel jayhsu is pretty scummy. Other thoughts (from reading through, but not as well displayed above): If jayhsu is scum, _infina_ will be getting a close look from me, as there seems there might be a link there, and I'd hazard a guess if one is scum, both are. If jayhsu is town, on the other hand, Lataro will be edging to the top of my scumlist. The suspicion of BN is something I need to take another look at either way, but I don't feel it's strong enough for a lynch compared to the alternatives at the moment.

Something else I'd like to see would be our runner-up lynch candidate (BigNose by the votes, but I feel there's more suspicion of Lataro at the moment) cast the hammering vote. In the event jayhsu does turn out to be town, there's a chance he's our friendly bomb, and I don't think passing up a (rather slim, I'll admit) chance to either take out a mafiaso or confirm a townie is a bad thing. Even more since I don't think we'd have anything to lose that way. Can we agree to this? Anyone have suggestions (informal vote?) for who should drop the hammer?

For now, FoS: Jayhsu simply because leaving things at hammer-1 seems like a bad idea while there is probably more for us to discuss. Otherwise, that would be a vote.
"Optimism, pessimism, fuck that; we're going to make it happen. As God is my bloody witness, I'm hell-bent on making it work." -Elon Musk
Shivahn wrote:I am a motherfucking sorceror.

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Vox Imperatoris » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:11 am UTC

PhoenixEnigma wrote:Something else I'd like to see would be our runner-up lynch candidate (BigNose by the votes, but I feel there's more suspicion of Lataro at the moment) cast the hammering vote. In the event jayhsu does turn out to be town, there's a chance he's our friendly bomb, and I don't think passing up a (rather slim, I'll admit) chance to either take out a mafiaso or confirm a townie is a bad thing. Even more since I don't think we'd have anything to lose that way. Can we agree to this? Anyone have suggestions (informal vote?) for who should drop the hammer?

For now, FoS: Jayhsu simply because leaving things at hammer-1 seems like a bad idea while there is probably more for us to discuss. Otherwise, that would be a vote.


Maybe BigNose should drop the hammer? Either him or Lataro, I'd say.
Nec audiendi qui solent dicere, vox populi, vox Dei, quum tumultuositas vulgi semper insaniae proxima sit.
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Tigion wrote:Gods, [Mafia] is like poker, 'cept harder.

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby Lataro » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:16 am UTC

I have absolutely no problem at all doing so myself. I'm pretty sure he is scum, and if people want me to then whatever.

Unvote
Vote: Jayhsu


That should at least put me at the top of the list as the last voter in the event it goes to end of day without being finalized. If it gets to 5 I'll take mine off and leave it, provided someone is online ready and waiting to put the fifth back on so I can end this.
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Garak: "Are you sure that's the moral?"
Julian: "Of course. What else could it be?"
Garak: "Never tell the same lie twice."

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Re: Diablo II Mafia [Newbie]: Day 1

Postby keeneal » Tue Jun 15, 2010 5:21 am UTC

I haven't given this much thought, but maybe a general rule that the person with the second-most number of votes at day-end is expected to hammer would be good for this game until the bomb is killed. It has the added benefit of forcing us to stop short of a bandwagon so that the appropriate unvoting-revoting occurs. I realize that general rules are generally not good (see what I did there?) but as long as we're flexible about it I think it should work out.

Ninja:: Jay, I don't think we're going to run into the deadline issue at this point. I'd say go ahead and remove your vote, as I think the next vote is hammer as long as yours is there.
I prepared Explosive Runes this morning.Alex Keene


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