Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Season Over!

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Adam H
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby Adam H » Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:30 pm UTC

blademan9999 wrote:What happened with the div by zero error?
It's just the best way to describe the lopsided score. :)
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby blademan9999 » Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:15 am UTC

What was the actual score
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby blademan9999 » Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:15 am UTC

What was the actual score
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby Adam H » Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:12 pm UTC

Betelgeuse's players were badly injured in a freak scoreboard explosion accident and you only want to know about the score? For shame!
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby blademan9999 » Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:17 am UTC

Really, What happened.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby patzer » Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:04 am UTC

blademan9999 wrote:Really, What happened.

Adam H wrote:Scoreboard explodes in high-scoring Sun game, falls on entire Betelgeuse roster. Sun clinches conference by "winning the game".

Betelgeuse's players were badly injured in a freak scoreboard explosion accident


Remember that stars tend to be very hot; this may have influenced the scoreboard explosion. I presume the Sun's team were given a nominal win.
If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family Anatidae on our hands. –Douglas Adams

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby blademan9999 » Mon Nov 18, 2013 10:03 am UTC

Proxima Centauri put up a surpassingly good fight against Phobos, being the first close game Phobos has played.
I feel real sorry for Beleteguese, having their teamed injured by an exploding socreboard. Hoped they recover in time for the next game, I quite like their team, they played quite a few exciting games.
Munroe vs Pluto was an excellent game, it was close and none knew who won until the end with Munroe pulling of a surpassingly underdog victory.
Europa vs Callisto and Barnard's star vs Sirius was great games as well.
We've got some nice games coming up.
Phobos vs mars, old rivals Earth vs Moon those will be good games.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby Adam H » Mon Nov 18, 2013 2:53 pm UTC

Good news, Betelgeuse's coach just tweeted that the team is recovering and will be ready to play this week.

Patzer was right about the stars being too hot. The scoreboard manufacturer has reviewed their design and recalled all scoreboards currently used by teams in hot climates. Brand new heat resistant scoreboards will be designed in the offseason, and in the meantime teams will keep score by hand.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby Adam H » Mon Nov 18, 2013 11:00 pm UTC

Week 9 Results:
Spoiler:
  • #1 Phobos 15, #7 Mars 9
  • #2 Earth 18, #12 Moon 0
  • #3 Sun 41, #6 Mercury 4
  • #4 Jupiter 16, #5 Ganymede 7
  • #8 Saturn 20, Titan 4
  • #9 Triton 16, #14 Neptune 15
  • #18 Io 7, #10 Venus 6
  • #11 Europa 55, Eris 0
  • #13 Callisto 14, Ceres 8
  • #16 Uranus 15, #15 Pluto 6
  • Betelgeuse 25, #17 Proxima Centauri 24
  • #19 4942 Munroe 19, Deimos 17
  • #20 R. Doradus 21, Sirius 20
  • Barnard's Star 17, Alpha Centauri 9

Top Stories:
- Top teams all post impressive victories in last week of regular season.
- Neptune, Mars both humbled in losses to their moons.
- Still-recovering Betelgeuse team inspires in win over ranked Proxima Centauri.

Adam's Subjective Postseason Top 20 Rankings:
Spoiler:
  1. Phobos
  2. Earth
  3. Sun
  4. Jupiter
  5. Saturn (+3)
  6. Ganymede (-1)
  7. Mars
  8. Triton (+1)
  9. Mercury (-3)
  10. Europa (+1)
  11. Moon (+1)
  12. Callisto (+1)
  13. Uranus (+3)
  14. Io (+4)
  15. Venus (-5)
  16. Neptune (-2)
  17. Pluto (-2)
  18. R. Doradus (+2)
  19. 4942 Munroe
  20. Betelgeuse (new)


Conference Championship Games:
#1 Phobos (-12) vs. #6 Ganymede
#2 Earth (-1) vs. #4 Jupiter


Jupiter looks to avenge their lone regular season loss, while Phobos tries to keep their improbable championship dream alive. The conference championship games are basically play-ins to the Intergalactic Playoff Series, which is a single-elimination playoff between the four conference champions. Seeding will be determined after the conference championship games.

The Intergalactic Sports Gambling Committee has released the official odds on winning the Intergalactic Champion:
  • Phobos – 2/1
  • Sun - 5/2
  • Earth – 5/1
  • Jupiter - 5/1
  • Ganymede - 15/1
  • 4942 Munroe - 60/1
The odds take into account projected seeding. For example, if Phobos beats Ganymede, they will likely be a #1 seed and play #4 seed 4942 Munroe in the semifinal round. Whereas if Ganymede beats Phobos, they will likely be a #3 seed and have to play Sun (or possibly Earth or Jupiter) in the semifinal round, a much tougher matchup.


There will also be a round of Planet vs. Moon exhibition games TBA.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby blademan9999 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:44 am UTC

I watched a spectacular game between Betelgeuse and Proxima Centauri. It was an exciting 25-24 and I was on the edge of my seat the whole time. The Betelgeuse team seams to have a knack at pulling of exciting wins, I'd much rather watch a 25-24 game then a 25-0 game. It's a shame this is their last game though.
We've had FIVE matches where planets play their moons. Some of those were pretty good.
We're at the Final matches, Phobos vs Ganymede should be and easy win to Phobos, the the rematch of Jupiter vs Earth should be good.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Week 9

Postby Adam H » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:08 pm UTC

Conference Championship Results:
  • #1 Phobos 34, #6 Ganymede 10
  • #2 Earth 13, #4 Jupiter 9
-Phobos dominates Ganymede.
-Earth beats Jupiter for second time this year.

Exhibition Games:
  • #4 Jupiter (-13) vs. #10 Europa
  • #5 Saturn (even) vs. #6 Ganymede
  • #7 Mars (-3) vs. #8 Triton
  • #9 Mercury vs. #11 Moon (-2)
  • #12 Callisto vs. #15 Venus (-6)
  • #13 Uranus vs. #14 Io (-2)

Playoff Semifinals:
  • Phobos (-28) vs. 4942 Munroe
  • Earth vs. Sun (-3)
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Postseason

Postby blademan9999 » Sat Nov 23, 2013 4:06 am UTC

Phobos beat Ganymede as expected, that's 10 games in a row now that the've won, while Earth won a second game against Jupiter, there match was pretty exciting, those two teams have gained a strong rivallry.
Phobos vs 4942 Munroe should be a stomp. While Earth vs Sun should be an exciting rematch.
There's some good moon vs planet games coming up. Saturn Vs Ganymede should be a good match, as well as Mars vs Triton and Jupiter Vs Europa, I love games that feature planets against their own moons.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Postseason

Postby Adam H » Mon Nov 25, 2013 4:09 pm UTC

Playoff Semifinals:
  • Phobos 33, 4942 Munroe 5
  • Earth 25, Sun 21
-Earth avenges lone regular season loss in rematch with rival Sun.
-Undefeated Phobos focused, relentless in win over 4942 Munroe.

Exhibition Games:
  • #4 Jupiter 21, # 10 Europa 12
  • #6 Ganymede 13, #5 Saturn 7
  • #8 Triton 32, #7 Mars 25
  • #9 Mercury 7, #11 Moon 5
  • #15 Venus 12, #12 Callisto 10
  • #13 Uranus 28, #14 Io 12
-Jupiter moves to 3-0 against its moons.
-Ganymede, Triton manage upsets against Planet foes.

Championship Game:
#1 Phobos vs. #2 Earth

-The game we've all been waiting for is finally here! #1 Phobos against #2 Earth. And what a matchup we have! On one side is a relentless and hungry Phobos team, a merciless juggernaut that beats teams by unseemly margins week after week. Yet no one gave them any credit coming into the season; most pundits projected them to go 4-5 and finish second to last in the Moon conference. Phobos is truly an inspiring story. But to win the championship that they so desperately want, they'll have to beat the best team they'll have faced all year: a weathered Earth team that has just gone through one of the most challenging schedules in recent history, and made it through the other side with only a single loss. Since losing to Sun in Week 7, Earth has beaten Mars, Moon, and Jupiter by an average score of 19-4, then avenged their lone loss by beating Sun to make it to the title game. Phobos is a slight favorite (by 1 point) according to the Intergalactic Sports Gambling Committee, but Earth is no stranger to playing tough opponents. One thing's for sure, we're in for an epic showdown.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby blademan9999 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 1:32 am UTC

Phobos crushed 4942 Munroe as expected. While Earth managed to beat the Sun in an exciting rematch. Jupiter showed it's moon who's boss. While Triton vs Mars was an incredibly exciting game, it may be my new favourite.
Really when I look back I see that the Earth has had to play a large number of matched against powerful teams, with so many strong teams played it was bound to lose one match by bad luck. Phobos though undefeated, has mostly played only mid strength teams, still this looks to be an extremely exciting game, the game we have beating waiting for, EARTH VS PHOBOS. Each will be each other's toughest opponent faced so far, will Phobos win and become the undefeated champion, or will Earth show them how a real champion team plays. I don't know whats going to happen, but I do know that it will be spectacular.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby blademan9999 » Tue Nov 26, 2013 9:59 am UTC

By the way, what was the score in the Betelgeuse vs Sun game, 70-0, 100-0, higher.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Tue Nov 26, 2013 3:23 pm UTC

There are conflicting reports. Somewhere between 30-0 and 300-0.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby blademan9999 » Wed Nov 27, 2013 12:49 am UTC

Why won't you tell me the score.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby bluebambue » Wed Nov 27, 2013 3:00 am UTC

I'm going to guess that the random number generator Adam is using can give out infinities and/or 0s.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Wed Nov 27, 2013 2:23 pm UTC

Let's just say there were flaws in the algorithm. :)
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - The Champion!

Postby Adam H » Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:14 pm UTC

And the Intergalactic Sports Champion is...

...


drumroll please...


...


Earth 12, Phobos 11

Earth has done it! They've won it all! Glory to the victors! Yeeeeaaaaaaaaah!

Adam's Subjective Final Top 20 Rankings:
Spoiler:
  1. Earth (+1)
  2. Phobos (-1)
  3. Sun
  4. Jupiter
  5. Ganymede (+1)
  6. Triton (+2)
  7. Saturn (-2)
  8. Mercury (+1)
  9. Mars (-2)
  10. Uranus (+3)
  11. Europa (-1)
  12. Moon (-1)
  13. Venus (+2)
  14. Callisto (-2)
  15. Io (-1)
  16. Neptune
  17. Pluto
  18. R. Doradus
  19. 4942 Munroe
  20. Betelgeuse

Can anyone come up with a better ranking of teams than that? Or if that's too much work you can just name a couple teams that you think I'm overrating/underrating. The logic with my top-20 rankings was just if the team won then they go up and if the team lost then they go down. So it should be pretty easy to improve on that!

I'll post the actual win probabilities in a few days. There are some interesting discrepancies! Some teams overachieved and some teams underachieved. But the question is, which ones?
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby blademan9999 » Fri Nov 29, 2013 8:59 am UTC

(Wait so you weren't using some kind of formula for the rankings? Also, could you possibly tell me the formulas and stuff you used to determine the scores.)
That was a spectacular final match between the top top teams, a close win with no one knowing who would win until the end. Phobos plained brilliantly, but in the end they just couldn't quite beat earth, and there undefeated streak finally came to an end. 11 game one in a row before finally having a close loss. Brilliant performance.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby krazykate » Fri Nov 29, 2013 2:31 pm UTC

I just watched for the commercials. I thought the ones with the drunken kangaroo were pretty funny.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Sat Nov 30, 2013 12:15 pm UTC

If you give me a summary of all the results of the matches I can give precise ranking calculations and expectations of winning probabilities, or something.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Mon Dec 02, 2013 3:51 pm UTC

blademan9999 wrote:(Wait so you weren't using some kind of formula for the rankings? Also, could you possibly tell me the formulas and stuff you used to determine the scores.)
Nope, my rankings were totally subjective. And the scoring algorithm is top secret, for now. ;)

All scores:
Spoiler:
Earth 33, 4942 Munroe 1
Titan 20, Sun 19
Mars 10, Moon 8
Venus 13, Barnard's Star 8
Jupiter 52, Ceres 0
Saturn 14, Pluto 10
Europa 16, Mercury 13
Uranus 13, Ganymede 12
Neptune 62, Eris 12
Callisto 22, Proxima Centauri 19
Io 29, Betelgeuse 16
Triton 13, R. Doradus 12
Phobos 57, Alpha Centauri 0
Sirius 9, Deimos 6

Earth 27, Neptune 4
Jupiter 5, Venus 3
Mars 12, Saturn 11
Moon 33, Betelgeuse 2
Triton 16, Titan 10
Sun 37, Proxima Centauri 21
Mercury 9, Uranus 5
Europa 16, Ceres 14
Ganymede 19, Pluto 9
Callisto 27, Eris 11
Io 41, 4942 Munroe 2
Phobos 29, Deimos 0
R. Doradus 14, Barnard's Star 12
Alpha Centuri 19, Sirius 18

Earth 10, Venus 6
Mercury 10, Mars 8
Jupiter 18, Saturn 4
Moon 14, Titan 4
Io 16, Europa 15
Ganymede 16, Callisto 9
Phobos 15, Triton 9
Sun 39, R. Doradus 0
Uranus 18, Neptune 14
Betelgeuse 26, Alpha Centauri 24
Proxima Centauri 23, Sirius 22
4942 Munroe 36, Eris 10
Pluto 13, Ceres 4
Barnard's Star 14, Deimos 10

Earth 12, Jupiter 10
Phobos 24, Moon 0
Uranus 10, Mars 8
Mercury 15 vs. Neptune 14
Saturn 6, Venus 4
Io 84, Eris 0
Europa 41, 4942 Munroe 2
Ganymede 24, Ceres 0
Sun 32, Sirius 18
Triton 23, Deimos 1
Alpha Centauri 17, Titan 15
Pluto 14, Callisto 13
Barnard's Star 35, Betelgeuse 6
Proxima Centauri 21, R. Doradus 18

Earth 26, Mercury 0
Jupiter 28, Neptune 7
Phobos 42, Titan 0
Callisto 13, Io 12
Mars 11 vs. Venus 0
Saturn 10, Uranus 9
Moon 30, Deimos 0
Ganymede 16, Europa 14
Sun 65, Alpha Centauri 0
Sirius 22, Triton 15
Proxima Centauri 19, Barnard's Star 16
Pluto 42, Eris 9
Betelgeuse 23, R. Doradus 20
Ceres 20, 4942 Munroe 10

Earth 13, Uranus 5
Jupiter 12, Mars 11
Phobos 26, Europa 9
Saturn 11, Mercury 4
Moon 4, Ceres 3
Ganymede 19, 4942 Munroe 16
Triton 10, Io 9
Sun 52, Barnard's Star 0
Callisto 24, Titan 8
Venus 11, Neptune 10
Alpha Centauri 19, Proxima Centauri 18
Pluto 28, Deimos 3
Betelgeuse 26, Sirius 25
R. Doradus 67, Eris 7

Sun 17, Earth 15
Jupiter 33, Callisto 0
Phobos 63, Sirius 0
Saturn 14, Europa 13
Mars 22, Deimos 1
Ganymede 38, Alpha Centauri 0
Venus 2, Moon 1
Mercury 10, Ceres 4
R. Doradus 14, Io 12
Triton 35, Proxima Centauri 3
Uranus 25, Eris 0
Pluto 17, Neptune 15
Titan 33, Betelgeuse 12
4942 Munroe 19, Barnard's Star 17

Phobos 22, Proxima Centauri 19
Earth 25, Mars 3
Jupiter 16, Uranus 8
Sun ERR#DIV/0, Betelgeuse 0
Neptune 16, Saturn 14
Ganymede 13, Io 6
Mercury 7, Venus 5
Triton 6, Moon 5
Europa 18, Callisto 17
4942 Munroe 20, Pluto 19
R. Doradus 24, Alpha Centauri 10
Deimos 16, Titan 12
Eris 18, Ceres 15
Barnard's Star 20, Sirius 17

Phobos 15, Mars 9
Earth 18, Moon 0
Sun 41, Mercury 4
Jupiter 16, Ganymede 7
Saturn 20, Titan 4
Triton 16, Neptune 15
Io 7, Venus 6
Europa 55, Eris 0
Callisto 14, Ceres 8
Uranus 15, Pluto 6
Betelgeuse 25, Proxima Centauri 24
4942 Munroe 19, Deimos 17
R. Doradus 21, Sirius 20
Barnard's Star 17, Alpha Centauri 9

Phobos 34, Ganymede 10
Earth 13, Jupiter 9

Phobos 33, 4942 Munroe 5
Earth 25, Sun 21

Jupiter 21, Europa 12
Ganymede 13, Saturn 7
Triton 32, Mars 25
Mercury 7, Moon 5
Venus 12, Callisto 10
Uranus 28, Io 12

Earth 12, Phobos 11


The OP also contains every result sorted by team, as well as the conference standings.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Tue Dec 03, 2013 8:40 pm UTC

Alright, here's the computed rankings:

Code: Select all

Rank Team            Rating    +    - Hits  Perf. oppo.
   1 Earth             2845   42   40   317   73%  2623   
   2 Phobos            2818   42   39   444   84%  2470 
   3 Jupiter           2781   45   42   297   74%  2544   
   4 Sun               2746   37   35   506   77%  2470   
   5 Uranus            2612   44   44   236   58%  2534   
   6 Mars              2605   43   43   243   49%  2615   
   7 Triton            2579   40   40   277   58%  2510   
   8 Europa            2567   39   38   350   60%  2462 
   9 Moon              2563   52   51   176   57%  2502     
  10 Saturn            2563   44   44   214   52%  2547   
  11 Ganymede          2553   37   37   343   55%  2514     
  12 Io                2534   38   37   345   66%  2375     
  13 Neptune           2506   40   40   316   50%  2492     
  14 Venus             2500   55   56   139   45%  2556     
  15 Mercury           2495   45   47   214   37%  2613     
  16 Callisto          2466   39   39   302   50%  2459     
  17 Proxima Centauri  2464   36   36   364   46%  2513     
  18 Pluto             2459   41   41   272   58%  2378     
  19 R. Doradus        2443   37   37   347   55%  2395     
  20 Barnard's Star    2416   38   38   298   47%  2448     
  21 Sirius            2415   35   36   392   39%  2531     
  22 Titan             2387   43   44   270   35%  2544   
  23 Alpha Centauri    2374   36   37   376   35%  2523     
  24 Betelgeuse        2315   32   34   459   30%  2511     
  25 4942 Munroe       2315   37   38   382   34%  2482     
  26 Deimos            2294   47   50   224   27%  2521     
  27 Ceres             2284   49   52   229   30%  2492     
  28 Eris              2101   39   42   480   14%  2472     


What is the meaning of this:

The rating is an arbitrary number given to the team's strengths, and it could just be 10000, or a negative number, but what matters is the difference between the team's ratings.

Winning probabilities follow from this table. So, with a 27 points of rating advantage, Earth had a 53.9% chance of beating Phobos in the final (Earth's victory actually was predicted since before the Playoffs, but still with terrible odds since Phobos was >45% likely to win :mrgreen: )

Earth's 744 rating advantage over Eris means Earth has a 98.6% chance of winning against Eris in a game, and probably most of those games by big landslide :P - So, yeah, poor Eris didn't have a chance in hell to win the championship.

Anyway, the ratings become more accurate the more games are played and that's what the + and - columns are for. + means "this team could be stronger by this amount", and - means "this team could be weaker by this amount", so, Earth could actually have a rating of 2805 while Jupiter could have a rating of 2826, being stronger but unlucky. This all within a 97% certainty margin, but, considering this model thinks upsets like the many that appeared, and those monstrous landslides that we've seen are extremely unlikely to happen, but are actually common, I expect this certainty to be much lower. But at least I expect the teams to be grouped more or less right (would be surprised if Eris was actually stronger than Sirius :P)

Next we have the hits, this increases every time someone scores a hit against you and you score a hit against someone. For this we can learn about team's aggressiveness. It turns out being overly aggressive doesn't pay off and the Sun Team may have benefited from a better defense. Spot on in the middle of the pack, Venus seems to be the most defensive team, and it's really hard to score against it, but it also doesn't try that hard to score against others.

Next we have the performance%, this is straight forwards, and means you scored more than your opponents. A 50% performance would mean you scored against your opponents as much as they did against you.

And finally, we have opponent average, which is, the average rating that your opponents had. This indicates how lucky was a team when facing opposition, the higher the number, the unluckiest the team as it had to face strongest opposition, and the lowest the number, the luckiest it was, and the easiest it had it to win its games.

From the last two columns we can see that Phobos was the one that had the best scores against its opponents and the one that had the least scores against it. Sounds great but too bad it was mainly because it was paired against the weak.

And this is it! I just wonder how in the heck top 25 team 4942 Munroe actually played in the playoffs?! :mrgreen: Now that was lucky!

PS - <insert mandatory planetary joke on here, which is hilarious BTW, like Uranus>

Spoiler:
Now, the problem with these rankings is, that if they actually were official and the teams knew about them, they'd play differently, and that's because, when you play against someone weaker, the times they score against you are much more important than your scores.

Every time a team scores, it changes the ratings, let's see what would happen if Earth played against Eris and Eris scored a point, the rankings would change to this:

Code: Select all

Rank Name               Elo    +    - games score oppo. draws
   1 Earth             2842   42   40   318   72%  2621    0%
   2 Phobos            2818   42   39   444   84%  2470    0%
   3 Jupiter           2781   44   42   297   74%  2543    0%
   4 Sun               2745   37   35   506   77%  2469    0%
   5 Uranus            2612   44   44   236   58%  2534    0%
   6 Mars              2604   43   43   243   49%  2615    0%
   7 Triton            2579   40   40   277   58%  2510    0%
   8 Europa            2567   38   38   350   60%  2463    0%
   9 Saturn            2563   44   44   214   52%  2547    0%
  10 Moon              2562   52   51   176   57%  2502    0%
  11 Ganymede          2554   37   37   343   55%  2514    0%
  12 Io                2534   38   37   345   66%  2376    0%
  13 Neptune           2506   40   40   316   50%  2492    0%
  14 Venus             2500   55   56   139   45%  2555    0%
  15 Mercury           2495   45   47   214   37%  2613    0%
  16 Callisto          2466   39   39   302   50%  2459    0%
  17 Proxima Centauri  2464   36   36   364   46%  2513    0%
  18 Pluto             2459   41   41   272   58%  2379    0%
  19 R. Doradus        2443   37   37   347   55%  2396    0%
  20 Barnard's Star    2416   38   38   298   47%  2448    0%
  21 Sirius            2415   35   36   392   39%  2531    0%
  22 Titan             2387   43   44   270   35%  2543    0%
  23 Alpha Centauri    2374   36   37   376   35%  2523    0%
  24 4942 Munroe       2316   37   38   382   34%  2483    0%
  25 Betelgeuse        2315   32   34   459   30%  2511    0%
  26 Deimos            2294   47   50   224   27%  2521    0%
  27 Ceres             2285   49   52   229   30%  2492    0%
  28 Eris              2104   39   42   481   14%  2473    0%


Ouch! 3 rating points lost and given to Eris, but not only that, some of the Earth's opponents gained a point, so they're catching up to it.

Teams would have to play in a way to ensure that they don't get scores against them, instead of focusing on landsliding.


(for the purposes of these rankings, the Sun - Betelgeuse game was computed as 100 - 0)

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby bluebambue » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:11 pm UTC

Nice analysis!

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:18 pm UTC

Thank you! :)

Now, with this info I'd really like if gambling was implemented into the game, I think there should be a way to use knowledge of previous game for game prediction, and knowing what to bet in, etc.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:44 pm UTC

I'm impressed!

Interestingly, your ratings are quite under-confident (the true range of ratings is about 1800-3000 and the best team would have a 99.90% chance of beating the worst team), but that's probably what you'd expect with the rankings based on a small sample size.

If I normalize your ratings to set the top and bottom ratings correctly, 16 out of 28 team's max/min confidence intervals are correct, 12 of them are outside of your expected range.


Quiz time.

1) The objectively fifth best team is severely under-rated by Vytron's algorithm. Which one is it?

2) The objectively 15th best team is all the way up in Vytron's top eight. Who is it? (This team also qualifies as the "luckiest team" in terms of being favored by the Random Number Generator, so this will probably be pretty difficult to guess).

3) The fourth worst team (#25) is significantly over-rated by Vytron's system and is ranked between 12-20. Who is it?

4) The top four is Earth, Phobos, Jupiter, and Sun. It's much harder to put them in the correct order - if anyone can do that with a single guess, you'll win the game. ;)

Vytron wrote:Thank you! :)

Now, with this info I'd really like if gambling was implemented into the game, I think there should be a way to use knowledge of previous game for game prediction, and knowing what to bet in, etc.
Yeah I wanted this to be a thing! I tried to incorporate gambling by putting in spreads. How would you have liked it done? I'll probably do something like this again sometime.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:58 pm UTC

Instead of saying that I'm overrating/underrating teams, I think it'd be more accurate to say that they overperformed/underperformed much more than it was expected when you created the teams :P

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby blademan9999 » Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:01 am UTC

I know the reason for the Betelgeuse sun game. Betelgeuse has probably the worst defence in the entire league, in every single one of their games, the opponent scored lots of points. They has decent offence, so they were able to pull of some exciting wins some of the time, but when they face a team in the top 4, it resulted in a massive curb stomp.
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:11 am UTC

Okay, so here's the idea with gambling:

Have some participants on a round, say, 6 games, and give each game some betting odds:

Earth vs. 4942 Munroe 1:7
Sun vs. #15 Titan 2:5
Moon vs. #6 Mars 3:9
Venus vs. Barnard's Star 6:7
Jupiter vs. # 16 Ceres 1:2
Saturn vs. #18 Pluto 4:5

Now, a player can make bets for the teams in the games, so, say, if one bets for Munroe, and it beats Earth, one gets a x7 profit.

One could also, mix bets, so, one could make a mixed bet with games 1 and 4, and bet 4942 Munroe+Ceres, so that if they both win one gets a 2*7=x14 profit (but if only one wins one gets noting.)

With no limit to mixed bets, one could do something like Earth+Titan+Moon+Venus+Ceres+Pluto, for a big win if all of them happen to win, and nothing if any is wrong.

There could be a limit on the total bets of 10, so players have to pick carefully what bets they make, and of course bets of players are secret until release of the scores.

Adam would have a hard time finding the rations for us to bet for (I think he'd win if we run out of money), but something like this could be fun.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:36 pm UTC

Yeah that gambling sounds fun. How would you want me to calculate the odds though? I could make them exact, then the only way you could profit is to get lucky. ;)

Edit: Ideally I think it would be best for players to bet against each other and therefore they could set the odds to whatever they want, as well as bet on whichever games they want. They could even put money on "prop bets", like, thisTeam will score at least X points. But that requires multiple highly active players so that's not going to happen. ;)

Vytron wrote:Instead of saying that I'm overrating/underrating teams, I think it'd be more accurate to say that they overperformed/underperformed much more than it was expected when you created the teams :P
That would be a defensible argument if I couldn't create a better algorithm than you. :P

Give each team a rating and give each game a rating (different for both teams). The game rating for each team is equal to the point spread plus the opponent's team rating. Then set each team rating equal to the average of their game ratings. Iterate until it converges on a solution. You get something like:

Code: Select all

1  Sun          29.00
2  Phobos       24.25
3  Earth        22.98
4  Jupiter      19.58
5  Mars          7.67
6  Ganymede      7.60
7  Uranus        7.02
8  Europa        6.81
9  Io            6.26
10 Triton        6.26
11 Saturn        5.80
12 Venus         4.75
13 Moon          3.68
14 Neptune       3.00
15 Mercury       2.25
16 Pluto        -1.26
17 Callisto     -2.18
18 R. Doradus   -3.23
19 Prox. Cent.  -5.92
20 Titan        -6.87
21 Barnard St.  -8.12
22 Sirius       -9.57
23 Ceres       -11.99
24 4942 Munroe -13.67
25 Deimos      -14.06
26 Alpha Cent. -19.22
27 Betelgeuse  -22.08
28 Eris        -39.03
(Sun vs. Betelgeuse was set to 100-0)

For the first half of the season, the betting spread was based 3 parts on preseason expectations and 1 part on the team's actual skill. For the second half of the season, the betting spread was based on the above rankings (only including the games that had been played up to that point) as well as some subjective compensation (I tried to fudge it towards what I'd expect the consensus opinion to be).

If do a "=correl()" function in excel, the above rankings correlate better with the actual rankings than Vytron's rankings do.

I should note that I created the spreadsheet for my ranking system a long time ago and I use it for all sorts of stuff just for fun. I say this because the actual method that I used to calculate the game scores isn't based on the idea that the point spread is the most accurate description of a team's rating, so I still think it's possible to outdo me.
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Wed Dec 04, 2013 3:40 pm UTC

Adam H wrote:You get something like:

Code: Select all

1  Sun          29.00
2  Phobos       24.25
3  Earth        22.98
4  Jupiter      19.58
5  Mars          7.67
6  Ganymede      7.60
7  Uranus        7.02
8  Europa        6.81
9  Io            6.26
10 Triton        6.26
11 Saturn        5.80
12 Venus         4.75
13 Moon          3.68
14 Neptune       3.00
15 Mercury       2.25
16 Pluto        -1.26
17 Callisto     -2.18
18 R. Doradus   -3.23
19 Prox. Cent.  -5.92
20 Titan        -6.87
21 Barnard St.  -8.12
22 Sirius       -9.57
23 Ceres       -11.99
24 4942 Munroe -13.67
25 Deimos      -14.06
26 Alpha Cent. -19.22
27 Betelgeuse  -22.08
28 Eris        -39.03


Oh, so Sun should have won the championship? :P

Anyway, you should set the odds in the way you expect to make the players run out of money ASAP, because, that's how gambling goes in real life, the house always wins :)

I also like very much the idea of people betting about other people. You could even make it go meta and allow people to make bets like "I bet Snark is going to fail at least 3 of his bets", or something!

Finally, I wonder if you could even play the betting game, you have insider information about the real strengths of the teams, but is that enough? And can you make bets that hide the fact that you have that info since people can look at your bets after every set of games? Would be fun to see.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Snark » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:07 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:"I bet Snark is going to fail at least 3 of his bets"
"I bet that I won't win this bet." :mrgreen:
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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:09 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:Oh, so Sun should have won the championship? :P

No, (SPOILER ALERT) Jupiter should have... !!!!!!!!!!!

Actual Win Probabilities:
Spoiler:

Code: Select all

1   Jupiter     95.8%
2   Earth       95.3%
3   Sun         94.8%
4   Phobos      88.7%
5   Ganymede    75.5%
6   Uranus      73.8%
7   Saturn      69.3%
8   Mars        68.5%
9   Europa      63.0%
10  Io          60.4%
11  Callisto    57.7%
12  Moon        56.6%
13  Pluto       55.1%
14  Mercury     52.4%
15  Triton      49.6%
16  Neptune     48.9%
17  R. Doradus  47.9%
18  Venus       45.8%
19  Barnard St. 35.8%
20  Ceres       30.4%
21  Titan       29.2%
22  Sirius      28.8%
23  Alpha Cent. 22.7%
24  4942 Munroe 16.9%
25  Prox. Cent. 14.9%
26  Deimos      13.8%
27  Betelgeuse  12.6%
28  Eris         2.2%

The probability of a team winning a particular game was: (A-A*B)/(A+B-2*A*B), where A=winpct of one team and B=winpct of the opponent. So Titan had a 2.21% chance of beating Sun (that was easily the biggest upset). Earth actually had a 72% chance of beating Phobos.

For each game, a random number (0 < X < 1) was generated. If X was lower than the probability of the underdog winning the game, the underdog won. The margin of victory was proportional to the difference between X and the game win probability. The maximum margin of victory was double the expected margin of victory. This means that two equally matched teams would always play each other to a 1 point win/loss, which makes no sense, but that's they way I did it for some reason. ;)

Every team also had a "aggression" rating like Vytron calculated that determined how high scoring the game was, but that had no impact on the win probabilities or the margins of victory.

Oh yeah, and Sun beat Betelgeuse by something like 122-0 and I was just feeling impish.


Vytron wrote:And can you make bets that hide the fact that you have that info since people can look at your bets after every set of games?
Oooooo that's intriguing! :)
-Adam

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Vytron » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:19 pm UTC

Aha! All my mind tricks to make you reveal the inner workings worked! :mrgreen:

Did not expect the scores on the games to be meaningless, yup, that's probably the main reason for why my model failed: some teams had very low chances to score or have scores against them, which would have greatly affected the chances of the outcomes, when in reality, the scores had nothing to do with winning chances and they just obfuscated the team's strengths (so, a team managing to beat another 80-0 instead of 20-0 wasn't actually stronger.)

Anyway, looking forward to Intergalactic Sports Gambling, or whathave you, maybe, Zoological Championship with Animal teams, or Teams of fiction characters, etc.

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Re: Intergalactic Sports Commentary - Championship Game!

Postby Adam H » Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:36 pm UTC

Vytron wrote:Did not expect the scores on the games to be meaningless, yup, that's probably the main reason for why my model failed: some teams had very low chances to score or have scores against them, which would have greatly affected the chances of the outcomes, when in reality, the scores had nothing to do with winning chances and they just obfuscated the team's strengths (so, a team managing to beat another 80-0 instead of 20-0 wasn't actually stronger.)

Well, not really. Tthe score depended heavily on the win probability. A team could only win by 80 if they ridiculously better than the opponent, while a team could win by 20 if they were reasonably better, and if two teams were evenly matched the score would always be close.
-Adam


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