Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Night 3 - Time to go, CEO

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:35 pm UTC

wam wrote:I am ambivalent.
Do you intend to lynch anyone else today? If we are going to lynch ConMan, we should have the claim now rather than a few hours before the deadline. If you are considering other options, perhaps you could begin driving some content. So far the discuss has not been fruitful.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:39 pm UTC

I agree that we need more content. What I am waiting for is your basis behind the lynch you are pushing for.

My views on the players are as below.

Hari - There were the links from Maven I highlighted yesterday
Bessier - There is the weird competing claims from N1
Moody - Still no real content seems to be trying to slip through
Conman - Nothing has stood out either way which in itself is suspicous.

What I haven't got straight in my mind is which of those I think is worse.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:54 pm UTC

wam wrote:What I haven't got straight in my mind is which of those I think is worse.
How do you propose to get it straight in your mind? Moody and I have offered a means to achieving that end. Since you do not agree with our course, do you have an alternative plan of action?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:13 pm UTC

What basis are you suggesting a conman lynch? You keep talking about 3 options but havent detailed them
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:32 pm UTC

I stated my basis for lynching ConMan. He attempted to maneuver the lynch in your direction at the last minute with faulty reasoning. I do not believe anything is more suspicious than that. Do you?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:30 pm UTC

I went back as I don't remeber you stating that. I found it but it was one line on the bottom of a long post so missed it.

From my perspective I want to do a complete re-read. Will get on that tomorrow.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby ConMan » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:
ConMan wrote: As someone who is just a random member of the board, I find it surprising that I would possibly be jimbob's crush, but perhaps that's just the way it panned out (I dunno, maybe the love interests were picked randomly).
Why do you think that jimbob autotargeted you? Maybe he selected you as his night target and used a power on you.

I did say "possibly". We don't know how the whole "Love Interest" thing works, but it makes for a convenient explanation of some of the N1 weirdness and I just extrapolated to your N2 result. I agree it's entirely plausible that jimbob just targeted me with whatever his actual ability was.

bessie wrote:Maybe you felt some pressure to claim a passive ability in order to explain somitomi’s content.

That is also partially true. In the sense that yes, I chose to disclose some information about my ability partially to try to explain somitomi's D1 posts. Also just to provide some information, since I work on the basis that (a) information is how the game moves forward, and (b) providing information is a townie thing to do (since it's typically in town's best interests to know what's going on). And to respond to Hari's point that doing so makes me an anti-target, it's a fair point although I never said that my ability required mafia to target me - there are plenty of passive abilities that don't relate to being targeted by something (e.g. lovers, lynchbomb/jesterbomb, that role that tells you how many abilities of a particular kind were used during the night, etc). Even with an ability that triggers on being targeted (like a PGO) I was in a position where, if I wasn't lynched, I could have been a likely target for a vigilante ability (i.e. I was under a lot of suspicion) and getting hit by that would be doubly bad for town.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:23 pm UTC

ConMan, you claimed recently that for your ability to be useful, Mafia would need to consider you a threat. It is easy then to extrapolate that Mafia ought not target you from their perspective. It is therefore no longer useful to conceal it. As you said, information drives the game forward, so it is more beneficial for you to claim now so that I may reveal my information. Your relunctance to fully claim is not Townie; it is only delaying progression.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 1 - Let's Get This Party Started!

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:16 am UTC

This interaction between Maven and Wam causes my gut to turn everytime I read it:

Spoiler:
wam wrote:
Maven89 wrote:
Wam, if the day was going to end right now, and you had to pick one person to be lynched (no non-lynch), who would you pick?


Good question

Based on what I have so far put together the list below

Alphabetical within groups as thats what you get sorting by author

Leaning Town particular order)
Bessie - Like the content, asking questions stating suspicions etc
Laserguy - Mostly setup spec to start fair enough, followed by the pressure on somi. See above for town read
Maven - Setup spec again, plus good content in pushing me for an answer as when I got that question I realised I had just been stating town reads.
Peaceful whale - See earlier based on feeling compared to last game
Somi - See earlier post about their interaction with Jimbob

Netural
Hari - Not enough content (2 posts) for any real reads, will await more content before making a judgement.


Leaning Scum
Jimbob - See Below
Moody - Quite a few posts no real content is the impression I got reading just his posts

Jimbob the question is important. As the name of the first kill is exactly the sort of flavour information I would expect madge to put in a scum role PM.

Maven, Based on the above it would be a jimbob lynch as number 1 and a long way behind that moody.

So

Vote Jimbob

Ninja'd by bessie, I'm going back to re-read that one and see how I did!


In my Page 2 analysis, I wrote that Wam gave me the impression that he was either pandering or talking to his partner. I still have that impression. To my recollection, Wam has not complimented any other player or their ability to ask questions. It felt rather forced for him to use the reason he did to justify his town read on Maven.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby ConMan » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:24 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:ConMan, you claimed recently that for your ability to be useful, Mafia would need to consider you a threat. It is easy then to extrapolate that Mafia ought not target you from their perspective. It is therefore no longer useful to conceal it. As you said, information drives the game forward, so it is more beneficial for you to claim now so that I may reveal my information. Your relunctance to fully claim is not Townie; it is only delaying progression.

Fair enough, and as I've already noted the chance of my ability doing anything at this point is Buckley's, so sure.

I am Paranoid - if Night Killed, the person who killed me would be Role Blocked the following night. So obviously it has not yet fired, and is not going to unless Mafia feels like testing my claim.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:29 am UTC

Thank you, ConMan.

Bessie, why did you not track Wam a second time? You still believe he is holding back something, correct? Also, could you give us as many details about your flavor as possible?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:39 am UTC

Moody, do you mind claiming next?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:05 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Moody, do you mind claiming next?


I'm Head of Inhuman Resources, and thus can check credentials (cop). By the way, all this love interest stuff at work is sexual harassment, and you should be ashamed of yourselves. :P

N1 result: checked wam cause I had him as rather suspicious, and he came back town.
N2 result: jimbob is town.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:29 am UTC

Splendid. Why did you choose JimBob rather than ConMan or myself?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby bessie » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:36 am UTC

Hari Seldon wrote: I am perplexed by the fact that no one other than myself has voiced their opinion on whether or not ConMan should claim. Everyone, please voice whether or not you support a mass claim, ConMan claiming, or neither.
I’m ok with a mass claim. I thought that was clear in this post.
bessie wrote: I would like to know what jimbob was doing too, but it seems that we won’t be getting any power information in the flips. Not having this information seems like a disadvantage for town, and makes me more open to claiming (which I am usually against).
As I said, I think the lack of information in the flips is a disadvantage for town. I would have really liked to know jimbob’s power. I thought that he might be a cop.

wam wrote:The other item I have been mulling over is this. Bessie what did you mean when you wrote this
bessie wrote:
Madge wrote:Personal note: I've had a couple of very intense days at work this week, so if the day ends early due to hammer, I might wait until the scheduled day end to post flavour.
Madge, if there is a hammer will you end the day and start night (adding the flavor later), or will you delay N2 start until you can write the flavor?

I will be available tomorrow night, but will be very busy Thursday night and Friday, and my posting will probably be limited to quick replies.

I was debating whether this came too close to referencing RL, but this would only be an issue in terms of playing if you were having night conversations...
See this and this. The post you quoted was written very late (for me) Tuesday night. When I first read Madge’s post my overtired brain interpreted it as she wasn’t going to be available until Saturday morning to call D2 and start N2, probably because I was also having a busy week and I knew I wouldn’t be available Thursday or Friday (and as it turns out I was also busy Wednesday night). I was thinking about this because it would be worthless to hammer early only to delay night (we don’t have a twilight phase).

No I’m not chatting with anyone, except with Madge in the Gojoe thread. But I do have a night action, and I don’t presubmit my actions during the day cycle. I scrutinize every bit of content posted and change my mind several times before I commit, then I agonize over my decision.

Hari Seldon wrote:Although I am not voting, my vote is tentatively on ConMan. I presume that to be the case for Wam and Moody as well. I would rather not wait until the final day for ConMan to claim.
What do you presume about me me me?

Hari Seldon wrote: Bessie, why did you not track Wam a second time? You still believe he is holding back something, correct? Also, could you give us as many details about your flavor as possible?
1. I didn’t track wam last night because I reasoned it would be pointless, and Maven’s flip was going to give us information on wam. If Maven flipped town, wam was probably scum and would perform the night kill because he was going to be lynched anyway. If Maven flipped scum, wam was probably town so should be telling the truth about his night action. By tracking someone else I might possibly catch scum, or might observe another instance of a player autotargeting.

2. I still suspect wam is holding back something that would explain my N1 result. See this post.
bessie wrote:I have been thinking about a mafia bus driver. It would still require wam to unknowingly target me every night. I think that I could accept the possibility of a mafia bus driver. What I’m having problems with is wam’s hypothetical lover targeting role. If town!wam does automatically target me every night, I would think that there is a mechanic where we could discover each other, which would be me targeting him since he targets me every night already, and that would trigger some ability like maybe mason chat, which didn’t happen. If not, what would be the point of this role? I really find it hard to believe that a watcher-that-secretly-targets-the-tracker-every-night role would exist for the sole purpose of throwing off the tracker. But as I said in this post, it’s not impossible and the role wam described here is also described in my role pm, so I believe he has this description in his role or safe claim.

3. I’ve already claimed quite a bit. I am a standard every night tracker. I am a majority shareholder in the company. I have a faithful little love slave that visits me regularly, which I thought very likely was mostly just Madge-flavor (but I was hoping that there was a potential mason partner). Reading the flavor closely (and having a couple flips to compare to) I see what may be the role name of my paramour. Do you want more now or do you want to see what wam has to say first?

Why Hari, I believe it’s your turn to claim! :D

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:58 am UTC

wam wrote: You keep talking about 3 options but havent detailed them
I believed there was each a case to be made against you, ConMan, and Bessie. With the claims laid out as they are, I believe there is now only one logical course to pursue.

I am Human Love Interest. I began the game as a Vanilla and became a Mason with JimBob upon Peaceful Whale's death. JimBob was also a Vanilla. We gained no other abilities when we became Masons. JimBob could not have targeted ConMan. Bessie is not telling the truth.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby bessie » Tue Nov 21, 2017 4:45 am UTC

Hmm, that would explain jimbob's read here.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I generally really like Hari's content. It all feels well thought out. His votes and suspicions all have solid reasoning behind them, and he's asked a number of insightful questions. I am pretty confident that he is town.


Why didn’t you both on D1 recognize that Peaceful Whale’s role name was similar to yours, that his role flavor had elements in common with yours, and that he might be town?

No, I’m not lying. But it looks like I’m wrong about the autotargeting. And my power is worse than vanilla, because it is giving misleading information.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:17 am UTC

bessie wrote:Hmm, that would explain jimbob's read here.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I generally really like Hari's content. It all feels well thought out. His votes and suspicions all have solid reasoning behind them, and he's asked a number of insightful questions. I am pretty confident that he is town.


Why didn’t you both on D1 recognize that Peaceful Whale’s role name was similar to yours, that his role flavor had elements in common with yours, and that he might be town?

No, I’m not lying. But it looks like I’m wrong about the autotargeting. And my power is worse than vanilla, because it is giving misleading information.
We did make that connection. Peaceful Whale's claim was the reason why I had unvoted. My flavor indicated that my character needed to make a choice between hiser two love interests. I made the choice.

JimBob having autotargeted is out of the question. I can certainly buy that Wam visits you automatically, but there was no indication of this on JimBob's end. He did not visit ConMan.

I am willing to entertain any other ideas though, Bessie. Especially any that lead to Wam being a Mafia.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby bessie » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:53 am UTC

Ok, I see your reason for voting for Peaceful Whale, if you had to make a choice. I still don’t see jimbob’s reason, unless his role said that his rival had to die for him to win with town. It seems out of character for jimbob to lynch a player he thought might be town just to get a power.

I can see why you believe that jimbob autotargeting is unlikely, but it is not impossible that if there is an autotargeting mechanic it is random. wam doesn’t know why he would have targeted Maven either, and I’m still not convinced that he autotargets me every night. Or that this mechanic even exists. I think it more likely that this is a mafia power. But if it is, it doesn’t lead me to wam being mafia, it leads me to moody, as moody targeted both my targets.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:56 am UTC

Hari why the obsession with lynching me?

Moody has claimed a cop result on me.

Three options

1. Town/town. He is a cop telling the truth.

2. Scum/town. He is a lying scum

3. Towb/scum. This relies on me being a godfather.

I can claim my role name if you want? Although I would rather Bessie claimed what she thinks first.

That is a bit damming on Bessie but I still can't see what scum Bessie would gain from the wierd claim D2. The best play would be to claim tracking me to the Nk immediately. Then when I claimed watcher it would look like desperate scum. It would have lead to a mis lynch then a maven lynch. Leaving Bessie at lylo.

@hari I was looking for something else on D1 and found this

Spoiler:
wam wrote:Laser guy that is a good bit of analysis with the possible somi jimbob link. I tend to agree with most of it.

Interesting element for me is Jimbob switching from pushing lyching me to PW at the same time. Could be a scummate trying to shift the lynch.

Checking the rules we are on a first come first served basis for ties. So at the moment thats a somi lynch.

@Hari

You do all this analysis with points etc but you don't turn it into votes why not?

LaserGuy wrote:
bessie wrote:Interesting. Hari Seldon, you are incorrect. This was not a just a punctuation fix.


Do you think this was a scumtell? I'm not sure I understand what you think the significance of the edit is.


I agree with this question it looks like bessie is suggesting a link but doesn't state it.

Also yes we need reads lists from

Somi
Maven
PW


Still stand by the I didn't compliment anyone else...

I don't believe the claim by Hari. Peaceful whale said he had no powers just before lynch so there was no reason to lie.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby bessie » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:02 am UTC

wam, are you Enamored Ghoul Assistant?

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Tue Nov 21, 2017 9:10 am UTC

I am.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby moody7277 » Tue Nov 21, 2017 2:34 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:Splendid. Why did you choose JimBob rather than ConMan or myself?


I wanted an absoulte town data point on someone I was mostly sure was town. D2 you might have notice I was still a little suspicious of wam despite what bessie pointed out was my unusual ease with which I believed wam's story. The probabilities I had of wam being scum were my opinion of how likely there is a godfather role. With two town results, I know that at least one is really town. Well, both now given how Maven's flip shook out; if there is a GF, it ain't wam.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 2 - Bâ Unbound

Postby Hari Seldon » Tue Nov 21, 2017 3:55 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Ok, I see your reason for voting for Peaceful Whale, if you had to make a choice. I still don’t see jimbob’s reason, unless his role said that his rival had to die for him to win with town. It seems out of character for jimbob to lynch a player he thought might be town just to get a power.

There was no reason to believe that Peaceful Whale was Town just because of his claim. You have to consider that he claimed just a few hours before the deadline when JimBob was going to bed. Peaceful Whale had yet to address the concerns that JimBob had with his play.
I think it more likely that this is a mafia power. But if it is, it doesn’t lead me to wam being mafia, it leads me to moody, as moody targeted both my targets.
I believe you are on to something.



wam wrote:Hari why the obsession with lynching me?
Your Day 1 play is extremely puzzling.
That is a bit damming on Bessie but I still can't see what scum Bessie would gain from the wierd claim D2. The best play would be to claim tracking me to the Nk immediately. Then when I claimed watcher it would look like desperate scum. It would have lead to a mis lynch then a maven lynch. Leaving Bessie at lylo.
How would Bessie know that you would claim Watcher?
Still stand by the I didn't compliment anyone else...
No. Thank you for showing me otherwise.
I don't believe the claim by Hari.

Splendid. I was hoping I would have the opportunity to use JimBob's crumbs:

Spoiler:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Updated reads list.

Hari Seldon (previously town):Post 1 - goes into detail for his positive read on me in my opening post. Believes that the type of question asked is more Iportant than what is asked usually (unwarranted aggression etc being more typical of mafia addressing partner). Points out that somitomi would have to be lying in the converstion. Points asigned are based on strength of tell. Post 2 - further explains his role-playing comments about me as being because of how I role-played. Post 3 - points analysis of page 2. Partner vibe between bessie and LaserGuy. Impression of bessie scum hunting. Doesn't like volume of questions bessie asked. Likes bessie's comment re. moody's gambler's fallacy comment. Overall rates bessie as townie. Gives LaserGuy lots of points for showing objectivity towards somitomi. Thinks scum!somitomi would have double-checked the rules or that his partner would have pinted it out. Gives somitomi town points for raising suspicions about wam for voting me. Docks points for using memory as an excuse. Overall places somitomi in the town region. Believes PW's comment about "other scum games" to be genuine slip (it was this point that made me spot the apparent slip). Several other small plus and minus points for a rage of things.

The typos—the letters that JimBob omitted in analysis of me—spell Mason.

As Bessie pointed out, he also had a strong Town read of me and placed me as his strongest Town read in his list:
I generally really like Hari's content. It all feels well thought out. His votes and suspicions all have solid reasoning behind them, and he's asked a number of insightful questions. I am pretty confident that he is town. The one thing I might suggest here is that when he does these big points-posts, he puts a brief digest of the things he found scummiest/towniest about each player, along with why, so it's easy to get a feel for how he feels about each player overall.


Roughly ordered list from Town to Scum:
Hari Seldon
bessie
moody
somitomi
wam <- only here if Maven89 flips town. If he flips scum, he probably slides up to between bessie and moody.
Maven89


I also breadcrummed here:
Spoiler:
Hari Seldon wrote:UnJester is an interesting role. I don't believe I have seen it before.

I do not have much to add today. Maven does not appear to have a defense, so I am happy to end the day as soon as everyone else is satisfied. After rereading, my read list is similar to my page one evaluation:

Town (Strongest): moody, jimbob
Town based on Occam's razor: Wam
Not sure: bessie, Conman
Scum: Maven


Vote: Maven


@Spirits/Ba: LaserGuy, well done. Peaceful Whale, I hope that you can forgive me. Your death will not be in vain.
Every other capital letter spells JIMASONS



Peaceful whale said he had no powers just before lynch so there was no reason to lie.

He did not have any powers. Neither did JimBob or I. We did not become Mason's until Peaceful Whale died. If JimBob had died instead, I would have become Masons with Peaceful Whale. Peaceful Whale also was told by the Hosts that his flavor could allude to something more. JimBob was also told this. That is why I asked you on Day 2 whether you had phrased your question to the Hosts differently, because the answers JimBob and Peaceful Whale received contradicts the answer that you receieved.


moody7277 wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Splendid. Why did you choose JimBob rather than ConMan or myself?


I wanted an absoulte town data point on someone I was mostly sure was town. D2 you might have notice I was still a little suspicious of wam despite what bessie pointed out was my unusual ease with which I believed wam's story. The probabilities I had of wam being scum were my opinion of how likely there is a godfather role. With two town results, I know that at least one is really town. Well, both now given how Maven's flip shook out; if there is a GF, it ain't wam.
You already had a strong Town read of JimBob. Literally any of the other players would have given you the same thing you were looking for. Additionally, if you had investigated someone scummy you could have gotten something even better than a town point: a scum point.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:21 pm UTC

@ Hari

I think I misunderstood the claim. I thought you were saying PW and Jimbob were masons untill PW's death at which point you became masons wit Jimbob. Hence, confusion at PW not having powers as I thought he was a mason D1. I believe it was actually, when 1 of the 3 of you died the other two became masons? Can you clarify.

Hari Seldon wrote:
wam wrote:Hari why the obsession with lynching me?
Your Day 1 play is extremely puzzling.
[


Thats my secret captain I am always scummy. Now the avengers reference is out the way, if you look at my meta I always used to be high up on the D1 lynch list as town and scum.

Hari Seldon wrote:
That is a bit damming on Bessie but I still can't see what scum Bessie would gain from the wierd claim D2. The best play would be to claim tracking me to the Nk immediately. Then when I claimed watcher it would look like desperate scum. It would have lead to a mis lynch then a maven lynch. Leaving Bessie at lylo.
How would Bessie know that you would claim Watcher?


What I was saying is that if we had sum! Tracker bessie, who tracked me to the NK, the best bet would be to claim immediately and hope that I got lynched as my claim would have looked like desperate scum.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby bessie » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:10 am UTC

Well ok, I know wam’s role name. It doesn’t confirm his alignment to me though, or mine to him. wam can still be scum. Or I could just be a scummy role cop.

moody7277 wrote:I wanted an absoulte town data point on someone I was mostly sure was town. D2 you might have notice I was still a little suspicious of wam despite what bessie pointed out was my unusual ease with which I believed wam's story. The probabilities I had of wam being scum were my opinion of how likely there is a godfather role. With two town results, I know that at least one is really town. Well, both now given how Maven's flip shook out; if there is a GF, it ain't wam.
What? How is getting a town result on someone you believe is town going to tell you if wam is a godfather?


Sorry so brief, I’ll have time for a reread tomorrow night. I worked late today and have an important meeting tomorrow morning.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:55 am UTC

Well having checked well have 2 1/2 days to deadline so have time. I am working on my 're read. However the breadcrumbing is convincing that they were masons. The only way I can see it working is if both were scum and we know jimbob wasn't.

I wouldn't put it past the mods to have a scum mason I have seen it before, but it is unlikely.

The point about moody targeting both your targets is a good one Bessie but would scum moody really claim the correct targets if he was messing with results.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:56 am UTC

Ebwop. By working I mean fake mason claim.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:57 am UTC

I do believe that we will lynch the remaining Scum today. Bessie, you are right. The puzzle fits together nicely. Moody visited both of your targets and both of your results are inconsistent with the other claims. Wam denies that he had visited Maven, and JimBob could not have visited ConMan.

The Wam Result
If Wam were lying, then Moody would most likely have to be lying about his cop result, as it is not likely that Wam is a Godfather and has a visiting ability. If we are to assume that we are dealing with one Scum, then both can not be lying; therefore, Wam must not be lying. When JimBob and Peaceful Whale asked the Hosts if their flavor was relevant, they received a response that indicated that it was. Wam, on the other hand, received the opposite answer, even after rephrasing his question. If Wam is not lying, then it is unlikely then that his flavor represents a hidden mechanic in the same way that the Love Interests' flavor did. Therefore, it is very unlikely that he has an auto targeting ability. So, either Bessie is lying about her result or Wam was framed.

The JimBob Result
JimBob was Vanilla so he could not have visited ConMan. Auto targeting is out of the question, because there was no indication in JimBob's flavor to allude to such a thing as had been the case with Wam. So, either Bessie is lying about her result or JimBob was framed.

The Case against Bessie
It is rather coincidental that both of Bessie's targets were framed. If there is a Framer, is it likely that they would have targeted both of the players that Bessie had? Well, yes. After Day 1, Wam was a lightning rod for investigation. Wam was the optimal target for both Bessie and the hypothetical Framer. After Day 2, the Framer would have now been aware of Bessie's role and thus could predict who she would track based on her reads. What is puzzling, however, is why the Framer would kill the very player they framed. Why not kill Hari? Why not kill Wam? This is baffling, and I believe it to be the most evidential for the case that Bessie is simply not telling the truth.

However, there are two explanations that I can think of for the conundrum above. The first: we are not dealing with a Framer who targets the investigated, but rather a Results Distorter who targets the investigator. As ConMan mentioned, "Hacker" would suit a role of this nature. Though, because Maven was not alive during Night 2, it would mean that his action would have had a long term or permanent effect. This theory is plausible, especially when you consider that Bessie would have been a viable Hacker target because of her set up post Day 1 and Maven's interest in said post. However, as a devout follower of Occam, the theory requires too many assumptions for my taste. The second explanation is simpler: Framer wanted to avoid being seen targeting two people, so they killed the same person they used their ability on. They chose JimBob because they wanted to avoid a target that would potentially be protected by a Doctor.

The Case for Framer/The Case Against Moody
I believe that by playing too safely and attempting to cover each of his bases, Moody has ironically exposed himself. It is unbelievable that a Town Moody would have intentionally targeted JimBob for his investigation. He had a strong Town read of JimBob at the end of Day 2. His explanation for why he had targeted him is unreasonable: to have a point of reference to compare his result on Wam. That does not make any sense. If Wam was a Godfather, a result on Jimbob would not provide any clue as to whether or not that was the case. Furthermore, a comparison point could have been obtained by investigating any other player and there would have been the chance of investigating Scum. So, it is not believable that a Town Moody would choose to investigate a Town and not a Scum read.

I believe that Moody claimed he investigated JimBob because he killed him and wanted to cover the possibility that he had actually been seen visiting him. This was not necessary though, because Bessie and Wam had already revealed their results. I suspect that Moody had planned his claim over the Night and simply did not alter it when it became safe to do so. This explanation brings together many pieces of the puzzle. If Moody is a Framer, it explains why he reacted the he did when I first brought up the role (Link); It explains both of Bessie's results; And it explains why JimBob was framed and killed at the same time.

If Moody is Maven's partner, it explains why he made certain that we were aware of his willingness to vote Maven (Link); And it explains his spontaneous question to Maven here and Maven's aggressive response here. That interactions meets each of the criteria that I outlined here:
The type of question is more important than the question being asked. Unwarranted aggression, questions that have an easy answer, questions that are reactive (rather than proactive), and questions that did not pass the minds of other payers are signs of a Mafia addressing their partner.
I do not know why I had overlooked it before.

Lastly, if Moody is a Mafia, it explains the LaserGuy kill. Moody believed that LaserGuy was an Indy (Link1, Link2, Link3). However, LaserGuy was very Townie and was not likely to be lynched, so an Indy LaserGuy was a threat to Mafia.

Vote: Moody

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 2 - Bâ Unbound

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Nov 22, 2017 9:02 am UTC

ConMan, where did you get the term Paranoid from?

ConMan wrote:There could be hidden mechanics whereby certain roles just automatically "visit" certain other roles, but if that was the case then why wouldn't Maven have used that as an argument for his innocence? If wam is just out-and-out lying, then it's a bold move on his part - he would have to assume that trading off Maven's death in exchange for his own was worthwhile, and I don't see the Mafia team being big enough for that sacrifice to be valuable. A wam/Maven scum team would still make for a bold move, since (1) it involves quick bussing to try to get a wrongly confirmed town, (2) it doesn't explain bessie's result particularly well (Surely they would have arranged for Maven to actually perform the kill so that wam's "tracker" result is legitimate).
And what did you mean by the bold? Why would Maven be aware of the hidden mechanics?

As soon as these are answered, I am ready to end the day when everyone else is.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby moody7277 » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:48 pm UTC

e
bessie wrote:What? How is getting a town result on someone you believe is town going to tell you if wam is a godfather?


The result on jimbob of course doesn't say anything about wam. What I was hoping for was two townies and a 95% surety on a third (although given we have a cop, tracker, and watcher, I maybe should revise that downward). Given wam's cred upon Maven's flip and how townie jimbob was looking, I guess one of them being dead start of D3 should have been obvious.

Hari's Monday morning quarterbacking is always a popular sport, obviously he's going to say he would have done a better job copping people than me. This is the first investigative role I've had in over a year, so I'm going to be a bit rusty in using it. Two-thirds to three-quarters of his case on me is this and the coincidence that bessie picked the same people to target and yet he puts his vote on me. Had he been around longer, I'd say it was my typical meta screwing me over again. On the indy!LaserGuy thing, I had a kind of "huh, I was right" when he flipped as he did. As part of the xkcdmafia culture, I am indifferent to independents unless they're SK or jesters. Based on the Crossover game, I asked Maven if he was going to be distracted from scumhunting by going after independents like the rest of the group from the other site seemed to be; turns out Maven killed LaserGuy.

Vote: ConMan
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Madge » Wed Nov 22, 2017 1:51 pm UTC

Votals:

Moody - 1 - Hari Seldon
ConMan - 1 - Moody

Under tiebreaker rules, if the votes remain as they are, Moody will be executed at deadline.

With 5 players alive, it is 3 to hammer.

Day 3 ends in 2 days, 11 hours.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 2 - Bâ Unbound

Postby Hari Seldon » Wed Nov 22, 2017 4:38 pm UTC

Moody, it does not take a rocketquarterback to work out that a cop ought to investigate Scummy people, not Townie people. This is not the same case as the situation with Wam's claim. I disagree with his choice, but his explanation is believable. Your explanation is not at all reasonable. I could believe your claim if you at least had doubts about JimBob, but that does not appear to be the case:

moody7277 wrote:
wam wrote:Ebwop I would be interested in other people's answer to 1 as well.


My end of D1 possible scum were:

Least Scummy
PW
Maven
wam
somi/ConMan
Most Scummy

moody7277 wrote:
Likely Scummate
ConMan
Hari
bessie
Less likely

anyone else I really can't see being scum


Even still, if toDay you had explained that you began to doubt your read, I could accept that. But your explanation is that you wanted to be sure of your already mostly Town read.

From the person that found the fault in Wam's Night action, deduced that LaserGuy was Indy, and uses mathematical concepts such as Gambler's Fallacy, being rusty is not an acceptable excuse.

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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:19 pm UTC

One factor that I think backs up hari s analysis is that I asked publicly in thread and got told all power roles are sane. A jimbob investigation would be a very good idea to see if your an insane cop but we knew that all ready.

I was suspicious of moody from d1 and am happy with a moody lynch.

vote moody
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:20 pm UTC

Ebwop that's l-1
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 2 - Bâ Unbound

Postby ConMan » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:41 pm UTC

Hari Seldon wrote:ConMan, where did you get the term Paranoid from?

It's in my role description. Although my actual ability is not Paranoia but "Haunting".

ConMan wrote:There could be hidden mechanics whereby certain roles just automatically "visit" certain other roles, but if that was the case then why wouldn't Maven have used that as an argument for his innocence? If wam is just out-and-out lying, then it's a bold move on his part - he would have to assume that trading off Maven's death in exchange for his own was worthwhile, and I don't see the Mafia team being big enough for that sacrifice to be valuable. A wam/Maven scum team would still make for a bold move, since (1) it involves quick bussing to try to get a wrongly confirmed town, (2) it doesn't explain bessie's result particularly well (Surely they would have arranged for Maven to actually perform the kill so that wam's "tracker" result is legitimate).
And what did you mean by the bold? Why would Maven be aware of the hidden mechanics?

He wouldn't have necessarily been aware of such mechanics, but Maven was doubling down on "I'm just a normal vanilla nothing and wam is lying" at a point where there was a lot of discussion about possible hidden visiting actions taking place. It would have been fairly easy for Maven to go "You're right, maybe I actually did visit LG due to some hidden mechanic".
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Madge » Wed Nov 22, 2017 10:46 pm UTC

Votals:

Moody - 2 - Hari Seldon, wam
ConMan - 1 - Moody

With 5 players alive, it is 3 to hammer.

Day 3 ends in 2 days, 2 hours.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 2 - Bâ Unbound

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:05 pm UTC

Ok so I am going to prefix this argument by saying my top lynch choice is still moody as hari s case is convincing.

However on my 're read a number of things about Hari stood out.

Hari, given you were masons and according to a different post jimbob was your top town read can you explain the post below at the end of d2?

Hari Seldon wrote:Vote: Maven

Bessie, I have also been getting pings from JimBob. I believe that he should be reevaluated, especially if Maven flips Mafia. I have a partial case built up, which I will post toMorrow if I'm alive.


2nd you had a flavour reason for not lynching pw but you shifted the vote to him at the end anyway. I know this was discussed previously. Reading through I got an impression you were hoping for an Indy.

Also you claimed human love interest as your role name given we have two supernatural love interests as town this could be mafia.

Killing off your town mason partner would be a great way to claim mason and imply you were both town without contradiction.

If moody flips town I will be having a close look at hari tomorrow.

On another note various players were ofnthepoaition through D2 that one if Bessie and I were scum. That seems to have.completely dropped off the radar. I would be interested in hearing the thought rocess behind that.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby wam » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:14 pm UTC

unvote

I still.want a moody lynch but I have a night plan that should give us a lot information if we end up on D4. I'm going to think it through overnight and post tomorrow if I haven't found any major holes.
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Re: Halloween Mafia - The Werewolf of Wall Street - Day 3 - The Times They Are a-Changelin'

Postby Madge » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:25 am UTC

Votals:

Moody - 1 - Hari Seldon
ConMan - 1 - Moody

Under current tiebreaker rules, moody will be executed if votes do not change before deadline.

With 5 players alive, it is 3 to hammer.

Day 3 ends in 2 days, 0 hours.
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