Secret Santa 2017 Endgame - Merry Christmas

[Madge]

@Madge: could you explain why bessie is the most scummy?

Unfortunately I really can't. I just have a gut feeling.

Madge has been being more Madge-like today, which gives her a somewhat less scummy read

Work stress has been less stressful lately except one of my contractors tried to be cheeky and put "limit of one round of revisions" in the contract and I as like HAHAHAno I know full well that we usually wind up with 3-5 confusing conflicting rounds of revisions. But that's standard Madge stress levels as opposed to what I'd been dealing with these past three months, so it's like a breath of fresh air~

I'm surprised that she hasn't yet claimed her N2 target, despite saying she thinks it's useful in case she flips.

Oh! Sorry, I forgot. Thanks for reminding me.

N1 I targeted Sabrar with (Flavour: device hummed for a second)
N2 I targeted Sabrar with (Flavour: target seemed to blur and distort)

I've just submitted my N3 target, not sure if I should share as if scum submitted it then I don't want them to have any hints but if scum didn't submit it it's free information for town.

I can self target with my ability BTW.

I don't think you ever addressed the point made about you suggesting Sabrar/bessie team being based on them being helpful [[also why is them beign alive suspicious]]

Because I get scared when helpful scum lead town, and scum killing helpful people is what i'd expect. Them being alive means either their reads/approach is unhelpful, or they're scum, or one o f them is being kept alive to shield the other one (i.e. scum!sabrar keeps town!bessie alive so that way it's not as unusual for a helpful townie to be alive).

Also, why do you think bessie wouldn't support a redirection gambit with moody? What sort of gambit are you thinking of?

Scum!moody doing what moody did: posting that he redirected everyone down the player list. It's the sort of thing I could see a scum player doing to get town to basically invalidate every single one of their reads the previous night, but it's not the sort of thing I could see bessie getting behind. I have never seen her play scum (obviously) but I feel like she is not the type to like wild gambits and would think that moody's plan might not work if a tracker saw him target the wrong person / etc. It's too risky for her, that's my logic.

[Sabrar]

No quick-hammer from Madge+whomever is comforting but not surprising. I can sleep easy now.

[bessie]

Scum!moody doing what moody did: posting that he redirected everyone down the player list. It's the sort of thing I could see a scum player doing to get town to basically invalidate every single one of their reads the previous night, but it's not the sort of thing I could see bessie getting behind. I have never seen her play scum (obviously) but I feel like she is not the type to like wild gambits and would think that moody's plan might not work if a tracker saw him target the wrong person / etc. It's too risky for her, that's my logic.

Bessie’s games as a member of a mafia team (omitting Crossover):
Wheel of Time – The Horn of Valere (mafia with kalira).
2015 Secret Santa by Suzaku (replaced as mafia on D3, mafia with Lawrencelot, Madge, emlightened. This one was a bit of a mess, but I think all of us were alive at the same time and had mafia chat.).
Misnomer’s Smalltown PYP (first game as mafia with the brilliant team of SDK, Madge, Lawrencelot. This game is the source of my steadfast belief in Madge's cleverness).

[Sabrar]

Also as I'm writing this, I got paranoid that scum!Sabrar might have a double vote and I would have actually accidentally hammered moody with the above!

Actually this doesn't make much sense. If scum has double-vote in LYLO then we don't have a chance of winning as they can force a NL all by themselves.

[Sabrar]

@bessie: could you please finish your read on jimbob and draw a conclusion?

[bessie]

Tasks:
1. Continue where I left off on jimbob read (bottom of P17 here). I need to reply to this:

@bessie - please could you go back over your case for moody only being scum with me, because I don't agree with it.

2. Read jimbob’s later content. Review my read of jimbob here, answer any outstanding questions. Need comprehensive read, conclusions.
3. Need reads for Sabrar, Madge, moody.


Summary of case for moody and jimbob as scum together or town together.

Sequence of events (simple case, does not account for another redirector or anything else that can mess with moody’s power):
1. moody claims redirector.
2. moody claims algorithm (target moves one down on the player list) 10 minutes before deadline, but also claims that he may have “flipped a coin” as to whether or not to activate his power.
3. NK is plytho.
4. If moody is telling the truth, jimbobmacdoodle was the NK target.
5. jimbob is cleared as non-mafia.

A. If moody is town and jimbob is town, there is no risk to scum with their choice of NK target. Mafia should have been happy with either NK option (jimbob, plytho).

B. If moody is scum and jimbob is town, too risky.
1. moody could be lying about his power. This is a big risk, as there are unknown powers and moody can be caught in a lie on D2 (role cop, see also #2). Risky.
2. moody can be lying about using his power. This is a big risk, as there are unknown powers and moody can be caught in a lie on D2 (watchers, trackers, etc). Risky.
3. If moody used his power as claimed (activated), then the NK target was jimbob, redirected to plytho. This clears jimbob as town. Why do this? Negative return.
4. If moody withholds his power , then the NK target was plytho (or could be anyone ), and no one is cleared as the original intended target. No risk but no gain.

C. If moody is town and jimbob is scum, too risky.
1. moody should be telling the truth and whether or not he used his power, but he did not confirm whether or not he would be using it in advance, so scum would need to take a chance by targeting jimbob. Not worth the risk.
2. If moody used his power (target moved one down), and the NK target was jimbob, redirected to plytho. This clears jimbob as town. But there is still risk because moody could be roleblocked (moody claimed his redirect has priority on D2), result would be jimbob dies. Some risk.
3. moody doesn’t use his power, and the NK target is jimbob, result would be jimbob dies. Risky.

D. If moody is scum and jimbob is scum, there is risk but the result is jimbob is cleared as town.
Same risks as (B) above, except (B3) is positive gain. So it is the most likely option.
moody uses his power as claimed (activated), then the NK target was jimbob, redirected to plytho. This clears jimbob as town. Positive return.
Risks:
1. moody could be roleblocked (see above). Small risk.
2. jimbob could have been watched. This is a possibility because many players had a town read on him. The watcher would see moody target jimbob/plytho with the kill. Risky.
3. jimbob could have been doctored or jailed. Scum would not get a kill. No gain.
4. plytho could have been tracked and the tracker would be redirected to moody, and seen him perform the kill. Unlikely, plytho as a general town read. Small risk.

Working on completing my jimbob read but I have an early day tomorrow.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

Just skimmed through Bessie's case, and I take issues with B3, and slightly B2. B3 because it assumes that the scum team considered the clearing me case, which I still maintain wasn't necessarily obvious. Also some wine - "scum wouldn't clear somebody N1, so if moody is scum, Jimbob must be scum" i.e. convince town that A or D must be the case, so that if I flip first, moody looks town, and if moody flips first, then I look scummy. B2 I also take some issue with, if moody is concerned about watchers/trackers seeing him, why not just have his buddy perform the kill?

Sabrar, good point about the double vote. Didn't think about that.

Sabrar, Madge claims to have targeted you N2. Do you have anything to claim that might be due to that?

[Sabrar]

Sabrar, Madge claims to have targeted you N2. Do you have anything to claim that might be due to that?

No, I received 0 night results or messages or gifts or whatever.

[Madge]

Can you confirm or deny whether you became DISTORTED?????

Seriously I wonder what that flavour meant...

scum can you pls kill me so town can work out what the hell I did?

[Madge]

4. If moody withholds his power , then the NK target was plytho (or could be anyone ), and no one is cleared as the original intended target. No risk but no gain.

Scum potentially gains here: they can discuss the roles they submitted amongst themselves. They could both potentially have submitted powerful investigators who are operating under the assumption they were redirected when they weren't. So cop results will be on the wrong person, etc. It means that our D1 results are all useless because we have no idea who we targeted.

I agree it's likely that their alignments are the same but that particular point I take issue with

[Sabrar]

Can you confirm or deny whether you became DISTORTED?????

Seriously I wonder what that flavour meant...

Can't do either. First instinct was that it was a protection power, making the target impossible to see/hit.

[Sabrar]

moody has gone quiet.

[moody7277]

jimbob probably not, small chance of bessie (Madge has been being more Madge-like today, which gives her a somewhat less scummy read).

Please explain what you mean by more Madge-like and how that makes her less scummy.

A lot of what was pushing Madge into scum territory D1 and that bled over into D2 was her whole "I'm going to change my meta" thing. Starting D3, her attempts to detail scumteams and the way she's presented her claim have been more in keeping with what I recall of late of late game town!Madge. The content of the claim seems to be in keeping with Secret Santa weirdness.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

FMPOV, the lack of a quick-hammer only rules out one team, namely Madge + bessie. Unfortunately, that was already ruled out by bessie's D1 vote, so no help there.

I'm here to chat for another hour or so. Monday is very busy at work and I probably die tonight anyway. Current guess is moody+bessie but not by a large margin.

If it's not by a large margin, who else are you considering?

Moody, if Sabrar is scum, who is his buddy? Why?

I'm going to start looking at how bessie and Madge interacted with Sabrar and moody to see if it provides any clues as to who is the scum out of moody and Sabrar. I doubt it's both of them, and it certainly isn't neither of them. With my father coming to visit, however, I may not get much time to write this all up, but let's see how it goes.

[Sabrar]

If it's not by a large margin, who else are you considering?

bessie - 50%
Madge - 45%
jimbob - 5%

[Sabrar]

This is based on original content only, I'm trying to disregard meta and mind-games.

[LaserGuy]

Votals

moody (1) - Sabrar
Sabrar (1) - moody

It is LLYLO. Deadline 2 days, 22 hours

Reminder to submit night actions before end of day.

[Sabrar]

I would like to remind the other 2 townies that it is imperative that you vote today, otherwise scum simply wins by forcing NL. Please ask your questions in time so we can answer them before you are forced to make a decision.

[Madge]

Of Moody and Sabrar I prefer Moody, but I think I want to vote Bessie.

I think we've all but agreed that Jimbob is not getting the votes today, so the vote leader will be one of {Madge, Moody, Sabrar, Bessie}, unless I somehow managed to miss someone else still being alive.

My town to scum list
Jimbob
Sabrar
Moody
Bessie

[Madge]

Sabrar, if you couldn't vote for Moody, who would you vote for out of me, bessie and jimbob?

[Sabrar]

@Madge: in LYLO there should never be more than 2 players with a vote on them, that spells disaster. You voting bessie means scum wins automatically if both you and her are Town. Granted I currently don't think it's the case here but why take such chances?
If I couldn't choose moody I would hold off with the voting for the moment. If I absolutely had to choose right now it would probably be you for suggesting such a wild tactic in LYLO.

[Madge]

That's why I'm not voting for bessie?

I more meant who is your second scum pick but thanks for overreacting to the way i phrased it?

In the hypothetical case that you changed your vote you'd unvote moody and then vote your new target and then there would still be only two players with votes on them.

[Sabrar]

No, moody would also need to unvote. The two players with votes on them have to be cross-voting. A voting for B and C voting for D is a terrible idea. And I did not overreact.

so the vote leader will be one of {Madge, Moody, Sabrar, Bessie},

This implies that you can imagine a scenario where neither moody nor I get lynched today and it's simply not happening.

[Madge]

So if you and moody are both town we've already lost?

Let's think.

Say Jimbob and Bessie are scum. We have 5 players alive. Jimbob and Bessie could both vote on Moody or Sabrar in order to win.

They could already do this, though, if just one of you is town. - wait, no, because if, say, Sabrar and Jimbob are scum, then scum!Sabrar is already voting for town!moody, so scum!Jimbob's extra vote only gets town!moody to L-1

Oh, okay. I see the logic now.

Basically, because these cross votes have been stable so long, one of Sabrar and Moody is (probably) scum.

Well shit. I really don't know which of you I think is scummier. And if I vote the wrong one, the second scum can hammer.

So really we need Jimbob's opinion as it's the least likely to be a scum opinion...

[Madge]

And scum has daychat so they're basically guaranteed to pile votes on the second a townie votes a townie.

... you guys already discussed this at length didn't you and I managed to miss it?

[Sabrar]

We didn't discuss it in detail because it was such an evident concept (or so I thought). But yes, if both moody and me were Town then scum would have already hammered long time ago (slowrolling would be a horrible breach of etiquette imho).

[bessie]

This week is going to be quite busy for me. Here’s the remainder of my jimbob read. Sorry for the sloppiness, I need to get some sleep and I’m getting up early again tomorrow for a meeting. I will sleep on my jimbob read and try to post something before I leave in the morning, and I should have time to complete my other three reads tomorrow night (22-24 hrs from now) which will be a day and a half until deadline so there should be time for discussion.

jimbob read continued. See this post for content through P17. Start with P18.

Post 10 – His first two replies to Sabrar re somitiomi and Sabrar’s claim are reasonable. Any comment on jimbob’s opinion on my motives would just be wine.
Post 11- Madge read, nothing stands out to me, most are points I have agreed with elsewhere, except the LYLO part (Madge has since answered all the questions addressed to her). moody read, I need to check on moody’s flip on Sabrar, unclear, was it OMGUS or because of flicky? Agree with the 10 minute part, I’ve commented on it before. Sabrar read, I agree with observation that Sabrar puts quite a bit of effort into his games regardless of alignment and this is not necessarily a town tell. jimbob is ok with a moody lynch.
Post 12- Reply to Sabrar about a mistake, reply on wording of somitomi’s D2 claim, reply to me in regards to question about moody’s claim.
Post 13- Fake vote for moody. jimbob is pretty sure moody is scum, but is being cautious.
Post 14- Reply to Sabrar, jimbob is being cautious because he’s not sure what powers may still be out there.
Post 15- He’s still irked about the Trial of the Pariahs (sorry I missed that game ).
Post 16- Has issues with my case.

B3 because it assumes that the scum team considered the clearing me case, which I still maintain wasn't necessarily obvious.

If moody uses his power and claims as such, then town is going to be able to figure out who the intended night kill target is. It’s really not going to be that hard for most players to figure out the next day (except for maybe Madge).

B2 I also take some issue with, if moody is concerned about watchers/trackers seeing him, why not just have his buddy perform the kill?

Sorry if this is unclear. The watchers, trackers, etc would not necessarily be watching moody, but might be watching other players, and if moody lies about using his power and there is a mass claim moody can be caught.

Post 17- Will look at interactions to determine teams.

***

I will reply to any new P19 content in the morning, except for this because I typed it out when I was replying to jimbob's comments on the same post.

Scum potentially gains here: they can discuss the roles they submitted amongst themselves. They could both potentially have submitted powerful investigators who are operating under the assumption they were redirected when they weren't. So cop results will be on the wrong person, etc. It means that our D1 results are all useless because we have no idea who we targeted.

B4 is for the situation where scum!moody tells the truth about withholding his power (for reasons given in B1 and B2), so you argument against B4 doesn’t make any sense.

[Sabrar]

@bessie: did you form any conclusions wrt jimbob?

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I only got as far as the end of Page 3 in my interaction re-read, so far, so that'll have to wait, probably until tomorrow at least, maybe Thursday morning. I will vote on Thursday, assuming Madge + bessie don't hammer between them in the meantime.

I've been thinking, and I think there's a very small chance that we could survive a mislynch today, but it would require a lot of luck, I think. A) It requires Madge to be town, and b) it requires said Madge to use her ability on the scum killer and hope that it redirects them to the other scum. That would put us at 2 v 1 tomorrow, with the remaining scum confirmed to Madge at least (and depending on who it is, maybe the surviving townie). If scum try to dodge this by withholding the kill, then they risk Madge actually using a kill instead (note that a kill alone won't be sufficient if we mislynch, as it will still leave us at 1 v 1). For this to work, it's obviously important that Madge does not reveal her planned target ahead of time.

[Sabrar]

I see jimbob also likes fringe cases. You require for town!Madge to guess the redirector button and that the button redirects the NK performing scum specifically to the other? I wouldn't count on that...
I think this has a lot less expected value than to try and coordinate everyone's claimed ability, even if we don't know what they do.

[jimbobmacdoodle]

I see jimbob also likes fringe cases. You require for town!Madge to guess the redirector button and that the button redirects the NK performing scum specifically to the other? I wouldn't count on that...
I think this has a lot less expected value than to try and coordinate everyone's claimed ability, even if we don't know what they do.

Oh, I agree, except that I don't see anything we have that can be co-ordinated. You and I have no ability. Moody can redirect or not (and if he isn't lynched, then he should make his own decision independently, unless someone can provide a concrete reason to use/not use his ability). bessie has an undisclosed N3 power, and Madge has no idea what her abilities do. There isn't really anything to work with here, unless bessie gives us more info, and/or someone can come up with a sensible method for interacting Madge and moody somehow to not just prevent the kill but actively force scum to kill themselves (or prevent it and then kill one of them in turn).

Okay, maybe there is something in that last point that could be co-ordinated. I'll give that some thought and see if I come up with something, but I think my time is better spent trying to get today's lynch correct.

[Sabrar]

unless bessie gives us more info,

This is it right here, I think bessie should reveal what her ability does and then we can coordinate on who bessie and Madge should target. I'm discounting moody's ability because fmpov if I get lynched then we lost anyway.

[Madge]

I don't see any use in co-ordinating my target. I have about 6 unused abilities and because I don't have any concrete information about the effect the ones I pressed had, I can't even begin to speculate what the symbols might mean. For all I know I'm giving scum a one-shot bulletproof that will prevent moody redirecting the kill to themselves... I'm just closing my eyes, pointing at someone, and pressing the button.

That said if people want me to target someone in particular using a button in particular I will. But only if the justification is more than "I have a feeling this button will do X". At this point I've accepted there's no way to know what the buttons do since Sabrar didn't experience anything last night.

[Sabrar]

Main issue of course is if Madge is scum and totally lying about her ability then she'll be able to use whatever she has without any chance of being detected.

[Sabrar]

As mentioned before I'm trying to not take moody's actions into account when trying to figure out his partner. However based on how he was so unwilling to clear Madge in the same way he cleared jimbob AND that he was '10/10 jimbob' right from start of D2 it looks a lot like he super-defends his partner. Unless of course the first part is just distancing and the second part is sheeping...
Either way, this would make bessie the least likely scum-buddy. Yeah, I have officially no idea.

[moody7277]

Moody, if Sabrar is scum, who is his buddy? Why?

Based on my current opinions, it would have to be one of the ladies. Sabrar really trying to get me to clear Madge plus my firm opinion of his scumminess would seem to be a point against her. He's just the kind of player who I feel would play out the scenario I posited viewtopic.php?f=53&t=123890&start=600#p4281756 here. On the other hand, my isolated read has been improving, and anything that makes Madge less scummy makes bessie look scummier by PoE. bessie is harder to judge on because of course the playbook on scum!bessie is a little thin. Of the games she cited, she subbed in after I died in SS2015, and Misnomer's game was, shall we say, nuts. NB, my quick check of PYP showed my last post was me voting her based off vote shenanigans.

[LaserGuy]

Votals

Sabrar (1) - moody
moody (1) - Sabrar

It is LLYLO. Deadline Just under 2 days

Reminder to submit night actions before the end of day.

[bessie]

bessie - 50%
Madge - 45%
jimbob - 5%

This is based on original content only, I'm trying to disregard meta and mind-games.

Really? You’re not considering meta at all in those numbers? So if you were playing with me and Madge for the first time ever, and had no meta background, no old games to read, you would find us approximately equally scummy based on content in this game alone?

... you guys already discussed this at length didn't you and I managed to miss it?

Madge, did you even read the last few pages? All you had to do was skim the thread and you would know what was and what wasn’t discussed, especially if it was something discussed at length.

This is it right here, I think bessie should reveal what her ability does and then we can coordinate on who bessie and Madge should target. I'm discounting moody's ability because fmpov if I get lynched then we lost anyway.

Ok. I have a watcher power. I’ve already submitted it based on the target I would like to watch, ignoring all potential powers that may affect my result. And Sabrar, instead of blurting it out immediately, why don’t you make Madge read the thread and try to figure out who my intended night target is herself? Hint: Madge, you only need to read D3.

On the other hand, my isolated read has been improving, and anything that makes Madge less scummy makes bessie look scummier by PoE.

I don’t even know how to respond to this.

jimbobmacdoodle
See here and here for content analysis. My original read of jimbob on D1 was town, he was second on my list. Rereading D1 I see that I agreed with much of his content, and his thoughts roughly aligned with mine, except that I didn’t like that he commented on somitomi’s light content but labeled him town anyway. On D2 I moved jimbob to the top of my list. His content was good, and he was actively scumhunting and trying to work out the game mechanics. However, there are two other factors that may have affected my read and the shift: (1) as the probable night kill target he was “confirmed” town, and (2) Sabrar moved down on my list after the motive for his goofy D1 behavior was revealed. D3 jimbob continues to act townie, he is carefully analyzing all the possibilities. Something that has bothered me is his claim that he would have used Madge’s power which I already discussed under one of the spoilers in my analysis. But I also misread him in Halloween and made some guesses about what I thought his likely actions would be, and I was wrong. So my read of him based on his content alone is town, but I am unsure how that fits in with my ever evolving meta read.

I’m working on my reads but I still have to wrap and pack some stuff, tomorrow is the deadline to ship for delivery by Dec 24, and if I miss it I will have to pay for overnight shipping.

[Sabrar]

Really? You’re not considering meta at all in those numbers? So if you were playing with me and Madge for the first time ever, and had no meta background, no old games to read, you would find us approximately equally scummy based on content in this game alone?

I can't discard personal meta. I can try to ignore environmental meta.

And Sabrar, instead of blurting it out immediately, why don’t you make Madge read the thread and try to figure out who my intended night target is herself?

Are you preemptively accusing me of something?

[Madge]

I'm kind of grumpy at Bessie demanding I read the thread and work out who she's targeting. I don't care who she's targeting. Like, not at all. She's smart enough to choose right and if she's scum as I suspect it's not going to matter.

It'll be very bad for town if she targets me and I happen to target the NK victim with my power, but there's not much I can do about that other than withhold and I'm not really down with that because it's my damn power and I'm going to use it.