Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (N5)

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BoomFrog
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 4:37 pm UTC

wam wrote:Cop results

Bessie, boom, laser not the same alignment.

mpolo wrote:
Sabrar and Master of All are co-aligned, according to the power that I had last night.
Why did you not put SJ as one of your three? He was clearly newbie town.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Boomfrog wrote:Madge would likely feel guilty about letting her teammates down if she were scum and would have voted by now. Plytho please move your vote.
This seems false. Madge likely went to bed around here where she wasn't yet in too much danger and we don't even know she was online. We also don't know whether she would check the thread immediately after waking up (deadline was theoretically passed so there wasn't too much urgency).
Maybe, I don't check people's timezones generally, but scum Madge would probably have been aware of the deadline and placed a vote somewhere before going to bed. It was a last minute thought I'd had during lunch and I want going to double check since we were not deadline.

Boomfrog wrote:Actually this pings me as very townie, since I had the exact same thought at the exact same time and I think that's a hard thought to construct artificially.
Disagree, it's easy to pretend because you're not actually 'constructing' that thought.
I don't understand which part of my logic you are disagreeing with here. I'm saying plytho decided to post "I feel like there is only one scum in this batch of four". He is either A) Town/Indy and doesn't know if it's true B) Mafia and knows it's true C) Mafia and knows it's false. "B" seems unlikely, plytho would be self conscious and not post that. "C" would require a very good self-fakeout to get into a townie frustrated mindset. Therefore "A" seems most likely. Aka, a townie ping.

Boomfrog wrote:1) The mood of the group was that MoA's vote-off was a forgone conclusion.
You can't state this for certain. SuicideJunkie's vote on Madge would have happened regardless which in turn contributed to LaserGuy's switch. bessie's vote was not influenced by group-think. By that time possibilities were quite open.

Boomfrog wrote:2) Of course, but there were four candidates in the vote pool and certainly some of them are town.
It would require a concentrated push by scum which can be quite noticeable (and possibly difficult if no day-chat). Also you moved too early, it might have been that not all scum were online/ready to push. You know that on this forum activity picks up in the last few hours if deadline is convenient.
Boomfrog wrote:3) Yes, but those were weak, and I expect a 3 man scum team, so I'd expect something a bit stronger then that.
You can't expect every player to push as hard as you do. They could be bussing or just simply not known for the style. Suppose e.g. mpolo is MOA's buddy, did you really expect him to come out with a strong case against someone else and try to direct the lynch? Or did you expect a strong push from potential scum!Madge?
I agree, there would have been a mad scramble closer to deadline. But by starting the mad scramble earlier it let it go longer and give more real info. Yes, we might have an all passive players scum team, but the scramble also helps prove that by giving scum opportunities to try to push things. And if no one shows an agenda then that can at least be evidence of towniess in some players.

Boomfrog wrote:4) It turned out I was right wasn't I? Why do you find my behavior suspicious in retrospect?
You're only right if MOA is not GodFather or mpolo's scum-buddy. Who is your scum-team right now? D2 you found plytho very townie, you believe moody and mpolo, you think wam is Town, you believe MOA is town and by extension me as well (because you believe mpolo). So now we have moody's result to resolve which must mean that Mark is scum and there is GF plus another scum in {bessie, LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie} and those 3 are in your top town group here. Tell me who is scum.[\quote] I haven't had time to analyze the full situation, as I said I was busy in RL until today. I'll probably go through the details this afternoon. You bring up an interesting point and I mostly agree. (MoA is only town because of mpolo's result, so he could be GF in the all real cops scenario.) But that does mean all the cops being real seems unlikely. If all cops are real I'd say Mark+ 2 of [Bessie, LaserGuy, MoA] with preference to LaserGuy and Bessie being both scum since a priori it was unlikely for MoA to be the GF.

A couple questions for you: Your theory is that wam is totally false claiming. Why not vote-off Mark and ask for the gift switcher to switch wam and another player. That would let us prove if wam has the cop power he claimed. If he actually has the cop power does that prove he is town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:16 pm UTC

In knew I should have previewed those long quotes. EBWOP:
Boomfrog wrote:4) It turned out I was right wasn't I? Why do you find my behavior suspicious in retrospect?
You're only right if MOA is not GodFather or mpolo's scum-buddy. Who is your scum-team right now? D2 you found plytho very townie, you believe moody and mpolo, you think wam is Town, you believe MOA is town and by extension me as well (because you believe mpolo). So now we have moody's result to resolve which must mean that Mark is scum and there is GF plus another scum in {bessie, LaserGuy, SuicideJunkie} and those 3 are in your top town group here. Tell me who is scum.
I haven't had time to analyze the full situation, as I said I was busy in RL until today. I'll probably go through the details this afternoon. You bring up an interesting point and I mostly agree. (MoA is only town because of mpolo's result, so he could be GF in the all real cops scenario.) But that does mean all the cops being real seems unlikely. If all cops are real I'd say Mark+ 2 of [Bessie, LaserGuy, MoA] with preference to LaserGuy and Bessie being both scum since a priori it was unlikely for MoA to be the GF.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Wed Dec 26, 2018 5:55 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off
Why not wam (who is currently leading)? Why have you been against a wam-lynch all game? You keep making excuses to not vote him. The one time you actually voted him (when you switched votes with every other post) you immediately moved away from him when he was in danger in actually getting lynched (because Mark followed you) and wam claimed Cop.

BoomFrog wrote:Maybe, I don't check people's timezones generally, but scum Madge would probably have been aware of the deadline and placed a vote somewhere before going to bed.
Or not, because Madge voting D1 is weird and out-of-character.

BoomFrog wrote:I don't understand which part of my logic you are disagreeing with here.
The part where you say it would be hard from scum!plytho to post that. plytho is good at coming from a townie mindset (see Shakespeare III). I could see either B or C.

BoomFrog wrote:But by starting the mad scramble earlier it let it go longer and give more real info.
What is that info? Which connections are you considering/discarding specifically because of that scramble? How is the bessie+LaserGuy+Mark team shaping up?

BoomFrog wrote:If all cops are real I'd say Mark+ 2 of [Bessie, LaserGuy, MoA] with preference to LaserGuy and Bessie being both scum since a priori it was unlikely for MoA to be the GF.
So If you were wrong about LaserGuy and bessie D1 what changed in their content since then? Or are you satisfied purely because of PoE? That would be quite the double standard.

BoomFrog wrote:Why not vote-off Mark and ask for the gift switcher to switch wam and another player.
Where's the guarantee that gift-switcher is town and even if s/he is would follow this plan? Besides as you ask wam could be scum even with the claimed power.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby MasterOfAll » Wed Dec 26, 2018 6:20 pm UTC

mpolo seems to be the only player who finds Mark to be townish, and apparently because of what his N1 power was and how mpolo believes Mark used it.

So, put me down in the camp that thinks mpolo should claim his new role and fully explain his thoughts on Mark.


I don't think I have anything else to add to the discussion right now, so here is my updated list:
Naughty
wam
Mark_Cangila
LaserGuy
bessie
SuicideJunkie
moody
plytho
BoomFrog
mpolo
Sabrar
Nice

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:08 pm UTC

BoomFrog wrote:
moody7277 wrote:Thursday will be crazy busy for me.

To add some clarity, I just want to confirm. Your power does not target anyone ever right?


Since I'm listing everybody living, I don't target anyone in particular.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:50 pm UTC

How do I link to a specific post on mobile?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:56 pm UTC

I'm still not sure how to link specific posts. The posts were Mpolo's 9th (including confirmation, and 1 indexed) and Mpolo's 11th.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:40 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Also, I didn't realize Mpolo had claimed. I'm really stupid. I'm probably getting NKed tonight
This is a post that refers what you said in response to mpolo's 9th post. So you did realize at that point that mpolo had claimed in his 9th. Why are you trying to make it seem like you think he only claimed in his 11th?

I'm on phone and links are bothersome, sorry. Will link tomorrow if needed. There's a white icon next to the name of the poster that links to that post. Right click and copy link to get it.

On the subject of mpolo claiming what might have been Mark's role and action: I don't think it's necessary. If Mark is under pressure to be lynched, let him claim. Mpolo can be the check.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:52 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off
Why not wam (who is currently leading)? Why have you been against a wam-lynch all game? You keep making excuses to not vote him. The one time you actually voted him (when you switched votes with every other post) you immediately moved away from him when he was in danger in actually getting lynched (because Mark followed you) and wam claimed Cop.
Because wam is lynch-bait. He's always scummy, and I've seen nothing extra scummy about him this game.

Where's the guarantee that gift-switcher is town and even if s/he is would follow this plan?
Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town. Even in the situation that wam is scum with a actual-cop power then town gets to steal the power. This is an obvious "use powers to gain advantage" move that town!Sabrar should be interested in.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:57 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:I think Mark is the most likely vote-off
Why not wam (who is currently leading)?
Also, that is absurd that you consider wam to be "leading" since he is only leading due to Vote of Mod.

plytho wrote:I don't think it's necessary. If Mark is under pressure to be lynched, let him claim. Mpolo can be the check.

I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 2:02 am UTC

moody7277 wrote:Since I'm listing everybody living, I don't target anyone in particular.
Do you know if your power is considered targeting, like do you actually target everyone?

plytho wrote: On the subject of mpolo claiming what might have been Mark's role and action: I don't think it's necessary. If Mark is under pressure to be lynched, let him claim. Mpolo can be the check.
I like this idea more than mpolo claiming Mark’s role.

BoomFrog wrote: Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town. Even in the situation that wam is scum with a actual-cop power then town gets to steal the power. This is an obvious "use powers to gain advantage" move that town!Sabrar should be interested in.
And why do you think wam has the most beneficial power for town? Or let’s say he does, what if the switch gives scum!wam a power that is more beneficial for scum than a cop, like a vig? I think this is a bad idea unless everyone’s power is known, and we can determine who has the least beneficial power for scum, and switch that person with wam.


Unofficial votals:

wam (4) : Vote of Mod, Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila
Mark_Cangila (4) : plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog

Not voting : bessie, LaserGuy, mpolo, SuicideJunkie


D2 post count:
Spoiler:
bessie: 9
BoomFrog: 18
LaserGuy: 7
Mark_Cangila: 11
MasterOfAll: 7
moody7277: 7
mpolo: 6
plytho: 19
Sabrar: 4
SuicideJunkie: 6
wam: 7

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:39 am UTC

bessie wrote:
BoomFrog wrote: Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town. Even in the situation that wam is scum with a actual-cop power then town gets to steal the power. This is an obvious "use powers to gain advantage" move that town!Sabrar should be interested in.
And why do you think wam has the most beneficial power for town? Or let’s say he does, what if the switch gives scum!wam a power that is more beneficial for scum than a cop, like a vig? I think this is a bad idea unless everyone’s power is known, and we can determine who has the least beneficial power for scum, and switch that person with wam.

Cop is one of the best possible roles for town, even comparison cop. At the very least MoA seems to have a useless power. mpolo's "townie side" of his power sounds awkward to use well and I'd bet wam's comparison cop is better.(mpolo/Mark don't confirm or deny this. It's all hypothetical for now.) Also, switching moody and wam would let us prove both of them at once. I don't want to pick one of those three options specifically because that will help scum interfere better. I also wouldn't object to switching moody with MoA/mpolo to test moody really has his claimed power.

@wam: Does your power target? Are you sure? Mark/mpolo: same question about mpolo's cop power, but don't answer until after wam.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:59 am UTC

plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:Also, I didn't realize Mpolo had claimed. I'm really stupid. I'm probably getting NKed tonight
This is a post that refers what you said in response to mpolo's 9th post. So you did realize at that point that mpolo had claimed in his 9th. Why are you trying to make it seem like you think he only claimed in his 11th?

I'm on phone and links are bothersome, sorry. Will link tomorrow if needed. There's a white icon next to the name of the poster that links to that post. Right click and copy link to get it.

On the subject of mpolo claiming what might have been Mark's role and action: I don't think it's necessary. If Mark is under pressure to be lynched, let him claim. Mpolo can be the check.

I made that post in response to being told my mistake.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:00 am UTC

Mpolo, are you ok with me claiming?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:15 am UTC

Alright, analysis time. Still trying to keep this game low key, so I'll be succinct. (no one told me this was secretly a deathy...)

Tone analysis:
Town
mpolo - cop claim when under no pressure, trying to be helpful with the mark situation while being contentious of not giving away too much too scum. Very townie mindset
plytho - Townie levels of frustration at end of D1 seem sincere.

SJ - Seems like newbie town, but now that we have something concrete to analyze he has disappeared. Where have you gone SJ? Will slid down the scale if he doesn't weigh in with real opinions on the current situation.
moody - Cop claim is unlikely to be generated by him on his own. I doubt he is scum unless he has a bold scum partner, mostly only Sabrar and maaaaybe
Bessie - Seems like she is trying to figure things out and is reasonably confused. I think scum!Bessie would have gone on the offensive by now, probably on plytho. Not sure but leaning town.
MoA - I expected town MoA to express more surprise that he wasn't lynched. Scum MoA had hope that his buddies would save him and doesn't want to emphasis the fact that he was saved. Besides that mostly townie tone.

wam - Claimed cop only under pressure. Choose targets poorly. Has acted scummy all game. Discounted because all of that is very possible for town wam.
LaserGuy - Not caring about the vote-off order of Mark+Wam is scummy.
Mark - Accidentally claimed cop and then backpedaling inconsistently about it.
Sabrar - Pushing vote-bait candidates all game. Not trying to break the obviously breakable game in town's favor. Ignored the possibility of GF in moody's results. Not caring about the vote-off order of wam+Mark even after GF idea is raised is also scummy. Very suspicious.

I'm going to assume that mpolo is a real cop. I will try to avoid the dreaded lemma 0.

If all the cops are real and there is no GF:
Mark is scum.
MoA and Sabrar are mafia buddies.
One of LaserGuy/Bessie/Me is scum.
This seems unlikely as Sabrar would have had to buss MoA hard, and I don't think Sabrar fully expected me to fight him on the MoA vote as hard as I did.

If all the cops are real and there is a GF:
One of Mark/MoA must be scum (and not GF)
One of LaserGuy/Bessie/Me must be scum
There is exactly one other scum who is a GF (this could be someone in the above pairs, so for example Mark and MoA could both be scum if one is a GF)

LaserGuy, Mark, Sabrar - With moody's claim, bussing Mark makes sense at this point, so the votes there aren't strongly telling. This fits the logical requirements and tone analysis and is my leading theory.
Bessie, and MoA are still possible, but I think in any of these scenarios it would be shocking if Mark is not scum.

wam is scum and lying and no GF:
Mark and wam are scum, and two more (definitely not considering mpolo/moody/MoA or Sabrar) and probably not Laser/Bessie/Me, so probably plytho and SJ. Maybe indies in the Laser/Bessie/Me pile - unlikely as I find plytho/SJ to be townie.
OR
wam, MoA, Sabrar and one other is scum - Super unlikely as Sabrar would have been bussing really hard all game.

wam is scum and lying and there is a GF:
wam is scum, Almost any 2 others can be scum. (MoA, Mark, and Sabrar have to be GF to be scum.) LaserGuy/Bessie/Me are probably not wam's buddies. That leaves at least one of plytho/SJ as scum. By tone I find that unlikely.

moody is scum and lying and no GF:
moody is scum
wam, Mark and MoA are likely town. Sabrar is therefore likely town unless GF.
At least one of Laser/Bessie/Me are scum. probably 2 since the other candidates are plytho/SJ
GF is less likely since there are only two comparison cops.

Conclusions:
Mark is probably scum.
If wam and moody are town then Sabrar is mafia GF.
If wam is town then one of Bessie/LaserGuy/Me is scum (obviously but it's worth emphasizing)
If Mark and wam are town then moody is scum OR MoA+Sabrar are scum.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:19 am UTC

About moody's power. I'm tempted to ask him to submit a list of all town. It would tell us whether there are 2 or 4 people who register as scum. That would clear up a lot of possibilities. But it seems so wasteful. There should be a "correct" number of people to try putting on the naughty list, but I'm not sure how many that is.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:24 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote: Cop is one of the best possible roles for town, even comparison cop. At the very least MoA seems to have a useless power. mpolo's "townie side" of his power sounds awkward to use well and I'd bet wam's comparison cop is better.(mpolo/Mark don't confirm or deny this. It's all hypothetical for now.) Also, switching moody and wam would let us prove both of them at once. I don't want to pick one of those three options specifically because that will help scum interfere better. I also wouldn't object to switching moody with MoA/mpolo to test moody really has his claimed power.
You claim you want to try swapping wam’s power to save a potential valuable cop power, which wam may be lying about and the night swap would reveal the truth. mpolo (your towniest read) claims Mark has a valuable cop power that you apparently don’t mind lynching into oblivion. Why not lynch wam and swap Mark with someone?


Request modprods on SuicideJunkie and wam.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:36 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:I know how to read a room. Mark is going to get voted-off if he doesn't claim his former power.

Vote Mark


I'm curious to see how this works out since you were mod-confirmed voteless today. I'm not sure if this oversight is townie for you or not.

bessie wrote:wam (4) : Vote of Mod, Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila
Mark_Cangila (4) : plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog


Also surprised you missed it immediately afterward.

BoomFrog wrote:@wam: Does your power target? Are you sure? Mark/mpolo: same question about mpolo's cop power, but don't answer until after wam.


Why are you so interested in determining whether people's powers have targets? What does it gain us to reveal this information publicly?

Mark_Cangila wrote:I personally support a Wam lynch. His role seems really odd to be in the same game as my new role.
Vote: Wam


You do understand how the roles in this game were generated, right? Having identical or nearly identical roles is not impossible. Do you have any reads based on actual content at this point?

Vote: Mark

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby mpolo » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:33 am UTC

The power that Mark_Cangila (apparently) had last night has two choices:
1) He can protect somebody, but that person has no vote the following day
or
2) He can roleblock somebody, but that person has a double vote the following day

Obviously, protecting would be the townier of the two things to do, at least in the early game. Of course, if Mark is scum, he would simply know not to try to kill BoomFrog, and then he has taken the vote away from a (very probably) townie. I.e. if Mark is scum, BoomFrog is likely town.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Sabrar » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:49 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:Because wam is lynch-bait. He's always scummy, and I've seen nothing extra scummy about him this game.
But it was enough so you put him second scummiest here. You can't have it both ways.

BoomFrog wrote:Well if the gift switcher dosn't cooperate then we know they are scum, since it's an obviously beneficial move for town.
Except when the player is stubborn and s/he has other ideas (see Madge in Shakespeare III). Breaking the game only works if we mass-claim and can avoid rule 7.

BoomFrog wrote:Also, that is absurd that you consider wam to be "leading" since he is only leading due to Vote of Mod.
Why would that be a 'Vote of Mod'??? It clearly comes from an ability, meaning someone found wam scummy enough to place it on him. How is that different from any other vote?

BoomFrog wrote:Alright, analysis time.
You're not analysing the scenario where scum!wam is actually telling the truth. It's a convenient result either way. This is especially relevant in the most likely 'wam is scum and lying and there is a GF' scenario.

BoomFrog wrote:Conclusions:
Mark is probably scum.
This is not a valid conclusion from the analysis alone. Just from a pure math pov you have scenarios 1 and 3 where Mark would be scum, 5 as town, 2 and 4 could go either way. However looking at it from math pov is also wrong.

BoomFrog wrote:If wam and moody are town then Sabrar is mafia GF.
This is incorrect. Mark + GF (from plytho, SJ, bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) + 3rd scum (from bessie, LaserGuy, BoomFrog) also satisfies all Cop results.

BoomFrog wrote:I won't advise on who specifically to pick since that would let scum know if they need to prioritize killing/RBing you or not.
So why has this not happened? Why was cop!wam left alone? Refer to WoT3 once more.

mpolo wrote:1) He can protect somebody, but that person has no vote the following day
Protect as in Doctor specifically? Mark can also answer.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby dimochka » Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:26 pm UTC

Sorry no flavor currently as I'm phone posting. Will adjust later

Votals:

Mark_Cangila(4): plytho, moody7277, wam, LaserGuy
wam(4): Sabrar, MasterOfAll, Mark_Cangila

Not voting: bessie, mpolo, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Provisional deadline is 9pm UTC, Friday, 28th December 2018 (about 1 day and 7.5 hours). Deadline timer: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/c ... nt=cursive

If people would prefer a 24 hour extension, please let us know asap, in thread or by PM.
Last edited by dimochka on Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:11 pm UTC, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby moody7277 » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:07 pm UTC

Checking because this seems to be a point of contention:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:BoomFrog is voteless today. He may not vote.


dimochka wrote:Mark_Cangila(5): plytho, moody7277, wam, BoomFrog, LaserGuy


Is this votal correct?
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby MasterOfAll » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:10 pm UTC

Ah, sounds like BoomFrog might have Mark to thank for not being NK'd on N1. Which, yes, is absolutely a townie thing to do, so we probably shouldn't lynch Mark today after all.

Can at least 1 of the Mark voters remove their vote so he doesn't get lynched before you all have a chance to reconsider? (although that BoomFrog vote is meaningless, right?)


Regarding the role-swapper helping us out tonight, I am fully willing to part with my current role. The main reason that I was voting wam over Mark is that I was more confident that Mark has an actual cop role that can be taken back. But now, I am much less confident that he is scum, so maybe mpolo's previous ability should be left in Mark's hands. And if we end up lynching wam, then I'm not sure what makes sense in terms of swapping.


I'm not asking folks to claim, but does anyone have a good reason to believe that the lack of a N1 kill was due to something other than Mark protecting BoomFrog?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Thu Dec 27, 2018 3:20 pm UTC

BoomFrog is voteless and his vote should not be listed. I'm currently on a phone in a foreign country, so internet is too weak to check the right number, but the only current affects affecting the votals are the extra wam vote and no vote for BoomFrog.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby wam » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:04 pm UTC

Have been prodded! Sorry guys will have some time tonight in amongst family commitments to go through the recent posts.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby Mark_Cangila » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:38 pm UTC

Mpolo's claim is my old role. I am voting for wam due to general scuminess too.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Thu Dec 27, 2018 4:44 pm UTC

Mark_Cangila wrote:Mpolo's claim is my old role.
Who did you target? With what? Why?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby bessie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:07 pm UTC

LaserGuy wrote:Also surprised you missed it immediately afterward.
Yeah me too.

Vote: wam

wam is at L-1.

I’ll be at work a deadline. If anyone wants a response from me please try to post in the next 12 hours.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:08 pm UTC

@Bessie: I'd considered it, but holding off on the vote-off is a high cost. And in the case that wam does have his claimed power, voting him off is worse then voting off Mark. In the case that wam does not have his claimed power, the gift switcher will prove that and we will have a garunteed vote-off target Tomorrow. (On further consideration I the switcher should definitely target wam, not moody)

LaserGuy wrote:I'm curious to see how this works out since you were mod-confirmed voteless today. I'm not sure if this oversight is townie for you or not.

Why are you so interested in determining whether people's powers have targets? What does it gain us to reveal this information publicly?

Well crap... I'd forgotten about the restriction. I was told if be punished if I voted too so I'm sure this will be lovely...

The claimed powers are already public, getting the details public doesn't help scum. But it does prevent wiggle room in the claimers of they are contradicted later. You wouldn't want a tracker to claim "I saw moody visit the NK target" and the moody says, "oh, I target everyone."

@Sabrar: The end conclusions you don't agree with are because it is taking tone into consideration as well. Not just logic.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:22 pm UTC

If scum Mark is on the team with the gift switcher then this makes sense. But I do feel more likely that the gift switcher is town...

@Mark: why not protect the claimed cop?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:23 pm UTC

@Bessie and LG: Do you feel Sabrar is town?
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby BoomFrog » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

I'm going to try and focus on work, so I doubt I will post for the rest of the day. I'm a lot more okay with the wam vote-off then I was, so I guess we'll just see what happens.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Thu Dec 27, 2018 5:46 pm UTC

Apologies for not having an updated reads list. Days have been busy and tomorrow might not be much better. (I need to assemble a bunch of furniture.)
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:18 pm UTC

I'm still convinced Mark is scummy. He's been very inconsistent regarding mpolo's claim.

Mark_Cangila wrote:I also had my power switched. I think it is more likely that there is a succesful doctor or RB then a scum withhold.


Mark_Cangila wrote:Also, I didn't realize Mpolo had claimed. I'm really stupid. I'm probably getting NKed tonight


Mark_Cangila wrote:
Sabrar wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:I saw Mpolo's claim that their role was switched. I did not see their claim of what their PR is.
Those were in the same post.

No, not really. Result claim is different from power claim.
I misread this the first time. I thought Mark was saying he saw the result of the roleswitch and thought mpolo only claimed his role in post 11. But now I think Mark was saying that post 9 didn't have a role claim because mpolo only claimed his result of Sabrar and MoA not aligned. (Which is clearly a power claim too.)

It's odd that when I asked Mark a question based on my misunderstanding:
plytho wrote:
Mark_Cangila wrote:No, not really. Result claim is different from power claim.
So you missed the post with the power claim, but not the one, with the result claim?

He answered yes.

I'm trying to wrap my head around this reasoning but I'm failing.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:32 pm UTC

Mark and BoomFrog's progression regarding that claim feels very staged to me. I think it's more likely they're scum together rather than both Town. I'll post the quotes when I'm off mobile.

BoomFrog wrote:@Bessie and LG: Do you feel Sabrar is town?


I think he is Town.

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby wam » Thu Dec 27, 2018 6:54 pm UTC

Started here

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&start=240#p4419458

bessie wrote:
bessie wrote:3. Be creative. In other words, why do you assume everyone views BoomFrog as confirmed town?
wam, you forgot to answer this.


It was the impression I had. Checking that assumption leads to:

Latest reads I can find on boom.

Bessie - town read on boom here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a#p4418148

Laser - scum read here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=80#p4419259

Mark - neutral here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=120#p4417641

MOA- town here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=160#p4420140

Moody neutral/scum here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=160#p4419963

Mpolo couldn't find a boom read

Plytho - leaning scum(my interpretation) here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=240#p4419285

Sabrar - leaning scummy (my interpretation) here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=240#p4417424

Sj - neutral here viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=280#p4418054

So looks like I was wrong.


Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:Which means from my perspective Mark and MOA must be scum.
No consideration is given here for mpolo's result on MOA and myself. Not mentioning it later either. Clear indication of scum.



I did address this here but it wasn't clear. It's the 2nd point.

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=125666&sk=a&start=320#p4419359

mpolo wrote:Agree that a godfather is fairly likely with the number of investigators we have, even if some of them are batch-investigators. Christmas Eve Day is not very conducive to participation — a million things to get done today.


Reading this made me think what about a Miller especially an unknowing? Also for the new players if your a Miller you should claim early day 1.


BoomFrog wrote:
wam wrote:Cop results

Bessie, boom, laser not the same alignment.

mpolo wrote:
Sabrar and Master of All are co-aligned, according to the power that I had last night.
Why did you not put SJ as one of your three? He was clearly newbie town.


I don't know tbh. Didn't really occur to me. think I wanted a good town block of people I can't read.

Think that's all the responses. Will get a reads post tomorrow before deadline.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:34 pm UTC

Merry Christmas everyone!

Ninjaed on the Miller thing. Lots of talk about GF, but not the mirror. I'm not sure that it actually affects the math any, however.
My role did not admit to miller-ness.


I note in the flavour text that Madge's belongings (ie power) has been left with the group. If it is still available for swapping, the reflection effect would be a free GF for the targeted cop abilities. Probably wouldn't affect the full-list cop on the other hand.

Given the three cop result claims, I believe at most two of them are real, and I don't really trust any of the players involved.
Moody is most trustworthy, and suggests one of {MoA, Mark, wam} is town.
Wam's claim is not helpful. I feel Laser is still a bit overrated, while Boom and Bessie have mixed reviews. Saying one is scum doesn't help. Might be true, might be miller, might be scum wam sowing trouble.
Mpolo claims Sabrar and MoA are the same when I had them on opposite sides. I could suspect MoA is GF to align that, but that would conflict with Moody's result. If Sabrar is miller, that leaves two errors on Moody's, which implies Mark is probably wrong.

Since it sounds like Boomfrog was protected N1, and Mark probably did it, that would add weight to Mark being town, and drag Boomfrog along too.

Perhaps an independent can count as nice to Mpolo, but not match with a town on Moody's test, or count as naughty to Mpolo while not matching with mafia for Moody? Because they're not mafia/town, and there are too many cops.

I'm not sure why Moody seems to like wam in regards to that 'naive read town' bit, but the implication is if wam is scum, mpolo should be town.

Given the pretty solid anti-wam sentiment end of D1, I was wondering if we were saving Wam for an easy lynch later and aiming for more controversial subjects first, but I like narrowing the field of misinformation.

Plytho indicates wam is scummy but likely not lying.
If scum and not lying about the results, the results could be inaccurate if a miller is involved.

I see Wam's postcount vs auto vote suggestion has been shot down. I counted 37 plythos, 30 wams and 27 Boomfrogs with Bessie's subtotal's help.

Bessie said Wam is at L-1, but given the vote shift changing Boomfrog => Mark to MOD => Wam, I think that is a hammer from Bessie?

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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby plytho » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:50 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Plytho indicates wam is scummy but likely not lying.
If scum and not lying about the results, the results could be inaccurate if a miller is involved.
When I said I thought wam wasn't likely lying I didn't mean he used that power and produced accurate results. I meant he might be lying about his power and producing a result for a fake power that is still true. Specifically, scum!wam deliberately added a buddy in his "cop result" so if that buddy ever flips scum, town will be inclined to believe Wam from that point on.
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Re: Secret Santa 2018: A Christmas Knight (D2)

Postby LaserGuy » Thu Dec 27, 2018 9:59 pm UTC

@SJ:

Mod vote is already included in the totals so wam is L-1.


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