Hi. It's 2019. Time for an update to my effortpost a while back.
After the recent El Nino event of 2015-16, it's clear that the microwave remote sensing measurements of the lower troposphere--represented by the RSS and UAH6.0 datasets, have about caught up with the direct measurements from weather stations, even if they're still a bit lower. In fact, it's pretty unequivocal that there is no 'pause', with all five datasets (now with BEST land/ocean) indicating a global temperature rise of at least 0.12 K/decade.
Where does that leave the deniers? Same as always. Any inconvenient evidence can just be dimissed---oh it's NASA up to their usual dirty tricks, what with faking the moon landings, the shape of the flat Earth, and now GISTEMP...
Great info! Do we know, out of these 4 contributors to global warming, what weight do each of them carry? The focus in the general public has been on carbon dioxide emissions.
Good question there. The IPCC has thankfully graphed that.
As you can see, the solar component has an amplitude of about 0.1 K on an 11-year cycle or so, with it currently being a negative forcing due to the weak solar maxima post-2000 (yes, sunspots are darker, but they are surrounded by brighter regions, hence total irradiance increases).
The volcanic aerosol component is irregular and usually short-term, with again an amplitude of about -0.2 K for 3 to 5 years.
Internal climate cycles--most notably El Nino--raise or lower the temperature by about 0.3 K on a yearly basis, occasionally. Longer-term cycles have a much smaller effect.
The remaining elephant in the room, is of course anthropogenic. This can itself be divided into two forcings--i) the GHG forcing from primarily carbon dioxide, but also methane and chloroflourocarbons, which is positive, and ii) the forcing from aerosols like black carbon in the upper troposphere and stratosphere, which reflect solar radiation (the direct effect), and also form clouds (the indirect effect); these both act to cause global cooling, which is weaker than the warming from greenhouse gases directly. (In fact, the slower upward trend around 1970 or so was during a time when a great deal of soot was emitted into the atmosphere relative to carbon dioxide.) This second factor is very hard to estimate, and accounts for a large portion of the uncertainty in future climate change projections, but taken together, we clearly see that anthropogenic causes contribute the vast majority of the observed global warming.
In any case, a much more detailed discussion of solar forcing etc. is available at skeptical science.