British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby orthogon » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:05 pm UTC

John Bercow has ruled out another vote on the government's previously rejected Brexit agreement if the motion remains "substantially the same".
Maybe some or more of the players are all being extremely clever here, but I can't help fearing that it's one of those movie-climax fights on the edge of a cliff, where it'll just be luck who wins the end.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:16 pm UTC

orthogon wrote:John Bercow has ruled out another vote on the government's previously rejected Brexit agreement if the motion remains "substantially the same".
Maybe some or more of the players are all being extremely clever here, but I can't help fearing that it's one of those movie-climax fights on the edge of a cliff, where it'll just be luck who wins the end.


I'm just hoping that the EU 27 grant a good long extension. The nature of such an important deal (or the lack of it) is clearly not best decided by a government in active constitutional crisis.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zohar » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:50 pm UTC

The problem is there's EU elections in two months and it would be pretty ridiculous for the UK to take part in them as they're talking about leaving all the time. I don't know how much leeway the EU will give the UK here.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:53 pm UTC

And if the UK doesn't take part in them, and then revokes A50, then the EU parliament would be constitutionally unable to do anything because the UK wouldn't be represented. I'm not sure what would happen then, we'd probably have to have our elections in a hurry.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:33 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:And if the UK doesn't take part in them, and then revokes A50, then the EU parliament would be constitutionally unable to do anything because the UK wouldn't be represented. I'm not sure what would happen then, we'd probably have to have our elections in a hurry.


I've heard that the EU has made having UK MEPs elected in two months a pretty firm condition of any extension. Yes, it's ridiculous, but this whole thing is ridiculous and this might end up the least ridiculous option.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:07 pm UTC

I'm still holding out that May's threats of no-brexit happen.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Grop » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:21 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:The problem is there's EU elections in two months and it would be pretty ridiculous for the UK to take part in them as they're talking about leaving all the time. I don't know how much leeway the EU will give the UK here.


This will probably used as an argument by someone, possibly with effect. As far as I am concerned, I wouldn't worry too much about ridiculous though; I mean I don't think that should be a serious reason for anything.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zohar » Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:29 pm UTC

It's ridiculous because the UK shouldn't have a say in internal EU politics if they already announced their intention to leave.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:06 pm UTC

OTOH, if the UK is still contributing heavily to the EU budget during the extension period, which surely we would have to (in fact the talk is the EU may impose penalty charges), it'd be a bit rough not to get a say at all. No taxation without representation and all that. But, yeah, it's an absurd situation all around.

Maybe the UK will hold nominal elections but agree to abstain in all votes or something, in return for a cut in budget contributions...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Grop » Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:34 pm UTC

On the other hand it is not like the UK had an incredible large number of seats and that every voter picked the same party. They can't do anything significant alone in the parliament. Denying them EU elections would be symbolic, not important.

Also I am not sure about that, but I wouldn't be surprised if paying for the cost of that election was on them. The part about it being ridiculous would be a joke on them.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Tue Mar 19, 2019 4:47 am UTC

Grop wrote:Also I am not sure about that, but I wouldn't be surprised if paying for the cost of that election was on them. The part about it being ridiculous would be a joke on them.


The guardian live news feed said it would be a cost borne by the UK. Seemed to think it would be about £100 million, but I don't know where that figure comes from.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:17 am UTC

Quercus wrote:Seemed to think it would be about £100 million, but I don't know where that figure comes from.


So like 50,000 tons?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:19 am UTC

Oh please, we all know the British ton is 2240 pounds, not 2000. Its so easy, because a stone is 14 pounds, and so two stones is 28 pounds and thus a hundredweight which is 8 stone is 112 pounds, and thus 20 of them is a ton. Going downwards, a pound is 16 ounces, but only if it's an avordupois pound. If it's a troy pound then it's 12 ounces. Now, a troy ounce weighs more than an avordupois ounce, but the avordupois pound is heavier. This means that a pound of feathers weighs more than a pound of gold, but an ounce of feathers weighs much less than gold, except you can purchase a lot more feathers than gold with a pound. Now, four ounces is a gill, and 64 gills is a peck, but if you liquify your peck of peppers you dont have a peck of anything but you still have 64 gills.

I dont know why people get confused by all this, it's so much easier than the metric system.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Link » Tue Mar 19, 2019 10:47 am UTC

Quercus wrote:
I'm just hoping that the EU 27 grant a good long extension. The nature of such an important deal (or the lack of it) is clearly not best decided by a government in active constitutional crisis.

Frankly, I hope they do so only under the condition that there's either a new election or a new referendum. Just the fact that a third "meaningful" (ha!) vote on May's deal is even being discussed shows that both May's cabinet and Parliament are woefully inadequate at dealing with this whole situation, and it doesn't take a crystal ball to see that any extension will most likely produce no different results unless the whole lot gets a good kick in the bollocks.

It's also a bloody disgrace that the Tories (and probably the other parties too, had they been in power) are too scared of losing votes in a new election to call another referendum, especially since there's now much more clarity about the consequences than there was in 2016. Not to mention the fact that it's now become clear that there was a good deal of foreign influence in the referendum, possibly skewing it in favour of Leave.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:48 pm UTC

Link wrote:
Quercus wrote:
I'm just hoping that the EU 27 grant a good long extension. The nature of such an important deal (or the lack of it) is clearly not best decided by a government in active constitutional crisis.

Frankly, I hope they do so only under the condition that there's either a new election or a new referendum. Just the fact that a third "meaningful" (ha!) vote on May's deal is even being discussed shows that both May's cabinet and Parliament are woefully inadequate at dealing with this whole situation, and it doesn't take a crystal ball to see that any extension will most likely produce no different results unless the whole lot gets a good kick in the bollocks.

It's also a bloody disgrace that the Tories (and probably the other parties too, had they been in power) are too scared of losing votes in a new election to call another referendum, especially since there's now much more clarity about the consequences than there was in 2016. Not to mention the fact that it's now become clear that there was a good deal of foreign influence in the referendum, possibly skewing it in favour of Leave.


Agree with all of this. Also wanted to add that I've seen reports that *demographic change alone* would swing the vote the other way if held today (older people, who voted majority Brexit, dying and younger people, who would have voted majority remain, reaching voting age).

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Tue Mar 19, 2019 2:38 pm UTC

That assumes that people won't change their vote as they get here older. That's far from obvious - after all, the elderly of 2018 once voted to join the EC back in the seventies.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:14 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:That assumes that people won't change their vote as they get here older. That's far from obvious - after all, the elderly of 2018 once voted to join the EC back in the seventies.


That's very true - I had thought that the independent article I saw had used a more sophisticated methodology involving opinion polls, but it turns out they just did the obvious maths:

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/fi ... 41576.html

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Tue Mar 19, 2019 3:31 pm UTC

Link wrote:It's also a bloody disgrace that the Tories (and probably the other parties too, had they been in power) are too scared of losing votes in a new election to call another referendum, especially since there's now much more clarity about the consequences than there was in 2016. Not to mention the fact that it's now become clear that there was a good deal of foreign influence in the referendum, possibly skewing it in favour of Leave.

What's also a disgrace is how the newspapers continue to fan the flames of discontent no matter the cost. The pics and headlines today were appalling - done for no other reason than to make more money.

(I mean, they have been a disgrace all along, I've long since given up on most of the 'mainstream media', virtually indistinguishable from the clickbait trash journalism found online as it is, but today they seemed to be especially bad.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:57 pm UTC

Anyway Bercow (either an inspired strict proceduralist or traitorous sabateur seizing power in the chamber, depending upon your POV) has said that asking parliament the exact same question again (as the second ask, which was only itself different from the first time by some legal clarifications) isn't on the cards.

Which makes him the likely prime antagonist for the "we shouldn't ask the people to vote again, because that would be silly!" people, even above other actual arch-Remainers, if/when they find time between sorting out the current mess. And has upset some MPs who voted Against try #2 but had stated that (without changes) they would have voted For try #3, regardless because #2 was really just a protest vote that they didn't mean so seriously. Self-awaredness is in short supply.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Tue Mar 19, 2019 6:00 pm UTC

He did say that it would be allowed if there was new information/significant changes. I don't think the leavers could in faith argue against a 2nd referendum given all the promises in the first one have pretty much fallen through (except for the blue passports).
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:07 am UTC

Angua wrote:I don't think the leavers could in faith argue against a 2nd referendum...
From the perspective of an outsider, this has been one of the weirdest things for me in the whole Brexit crisis. I just can't understand why seemingly all British politicians agree a second referendum is unacceptable.

Not that a second referendum is going to fix the situation. Whichever way the scale tips, it doesn't change the fact that the UK is pretty evenly split between leave and remain. Unpleasant as it would be, I am finding it hard to imagine a better outcome than a hard Brexit next Friday. The two and a half years since the referendum have only increased division and indecisiveness so it really isn't clear what a delay would achieve aside from prolonging the pain.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 8:01 am UTC

Why not instead of a referendum:

Spoiler:
A Jefferendum?

I don't know if there's anyone named Jeff in Britain though.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:10 pm UTC

From the perspective of an outsider, this has been one of the weirdest things for me in the whole Brexit crisis. I just can't understand why seemingly all British politicians agree a second referendum is unacceptable.

I won't pretend to know all, but some factors in play:
A second referendum is not super popular among the public either. Not unpopular either, but not enough to give a boost. Many people feel that a 2nd referendum would be a 'vote again until you vote correctly' trick. MPs are mostly more pro-Remain than their constituency, and people know that. They have to guard against the impression that they are tricking the system into Remain.

For hard-line leavers, a 2nd referendum is just an unnecessary risk, as long as Remain is one of the options.

For Labour, a referendum cuts off the only attractive path: new elections, won by Labour, and renegotiation by them (not to mention the other opportunities of being in power, like running the country). A referendum would lock in May's deal as the only moderate leave option. What should Labour campaign for, in case of a referendum?

For May and the Tories in power, a referendum is an election in disguise - if the May deal does not win, they are gone regardless of what comes after. It's in their best interest to push the May deal now as TINA, unless they give up hope.

That leaves pro-Remain politicians from strongly pro-Remain districts who are willing to go against the party leadership of the big 2. That's just not enough, unless there is growing demand from the public for a referendum.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:03 pm UTC

Surprise surprise, Donald Trump Jr thinks the only valid form of democracy there is is a populist strongman; A representative democracy which tries to act in the best interests of voters apparently isn't a valid thing:

The current deadlock over Brexit and possible delay to the UK's planned leaving date of 29 March suggests democracy in the UK is "all but dead", Donald Trump Jr has claimed.

Mr Trump Jr, who is the US president's son but holds no political position, wrote a column in the Daily Telegraph. In it, he criticises PM Theresa May for having "ignored advice from my father".

Mr Trump Jr added that "the will of the people is likely to be ignored" because of "elite" politicians in Brussels.


Another big lie in all this is that the US will rush to give the UK a great trade deal once we leave. Suddenly Trump is likely to drop his 'America First' agenda when it comes to trade deals just for us..? Suddenly Trump is all about making generous deals with weak partners is he..?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zohar » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:07 pm UTC

Obviously the solution is to have a referendum on a 2nd referendum.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:25 pm UTC

Zohar wrote:Obviously the solution is to have a referendum on a 2nd referendum.


You'll need to have at least two certificates of authenticity on the results then.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby maybeagnostic » Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:34 pm UTC

Zamfir wrote:A second referendum is not super popular among the public either. Not unpopular either, but not enough to give a boost. Many people feel that a 2nd referendum would be a 'vote again until you vote correctly' trick. MPs are mostly more pro-Remain than their constituency, and people know that. They have to guard against the impression that they are tricking the system into Remain.
This would make more sense if the first referendum had been borne on some kind of historical wave of support by the people rather than being a cynical political trick that backfired in a major way. It just seems that the second referendum, while not super popular, has more support than the first one did before it was announced.

Zamfir wrote:A referendum would lock in May's deal as the only moderate leave option. What should Labour campaign for, in case of a referendum?
Are they campaigning for something now? My impression is that they've been losing support since the last election and it really doesn't seem likely that May would step down and let Corbin have a shot at negotiating or even that the EU has any interest in that.

Zamfir wrote:For May and the Tories in power, a referendum is an election in disguise - if the May deal does not win, they are gone regardless of what comes after. It's in their best interest to push the May deal now as TINA, unless they give up hope.
Are they not done regardless? I can hardly imagine even a miracle keeping May in power after the Brexit ball finally drops. Pushing a massively unpopular deal through won't endear her to anyone. Really, a referendum with a question posed the right way almost guarantees May's deal winning and being forced on Parliament.

Its not that I disagree that these are likely the important reasons against a second referendum, its just that they seem to amount to people squabbling over who gets to be in charge when the ship sinks. And for all how at least half the population wants to Remain and supposedly the majority of MPs do too, Remain is still somehow seen as the absolutely least likely option by a wide margin.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby CBusAlex » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:04 pm UTC

Suppose the UK continues to squabble amongst themselves, and Mar 29 arrives with no deal or extension agreed to. And further suppose that all the predicted negative consequences of no-deal manifest themselves, and convince enough MPs that May's deal would have been better than this.

Would the UK at that point be able to go to the EU and say "hey, you win, we'd like a trade deal, we're willing to have the customs union and the backstop and everything else that May agreed to"? Or would it be too late at that point, and any deal with the EU, even the one currently on the table, would necessarily be a long drawn-out process?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:34 pm UTC

I'm pretty sure that the EU and Britain can quickly arrange May's deal after No-Deal Brexit happens. Arranging the desired relationship with the new relationship as starting point should not be more difficult than with the old relationship as starting point, because the whole desired relationship has already been agreed on.

The problem is political will. This will not change for most of the British MPs, who are the ones making the decisions (mostly making sure that there is not going to be a decision on anything as big as "What restaurant for dinner?"). Maaaybe the ERG would help with a trade deal between the EU and the UK, because they know that Britain needs that (they won't ever tell). But the ERG will never allow such trade talks to happen if that hampers their ability to do trades with non-EU countries. This, after all, is where the ERG people are looking at to do their own little business schemes. That's why they don't want a deal now, and that train of thought will carry on after Brexit. You can input any other political faction with their own reasoning to not agree with the current deal. The reasoning to do something or not do it doesn't change after Brexit happens.

From the EU's position, things do change. The EU will have a better position compared to now, because the UK's position will worsen. Their economy will take a dive, but it needs time to do so. The EU's economy will also get hit but not as badly. Right now the UK can do this prospect away as 'project fear' because they're not in that situation yet (well a bit but they're ignoring that). When it all comes crashing down, the EU can take better advantage than now.

So the EU and Britain can quickly arrange May's deal, but chances are that they're not going to. The UK won't because MPs are stubborn, the EU won't because they can get a better situation for themselves.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:44 pm UTC

Something to keep in mind: the current " deal" hardly describes anything about the future relationship. It's mostly a few years of extension of the status quo to make time for the real negotiations. The backstop is the pretty much the only thing in the deal that's new, and even then it's a conditional clause that might never apply.

But that is already enough to cause total political gridlock in the UK. Is there much hope for the real negotiations?

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:54 pm UTC

Petition to Revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU draws 1 million signatures

Two thousand people have been signing a petition calling on the Government to revoke Article 50 to allow Britain to remain in the European Union every minute, according to the House of Commons Petitions Committee. The petition, on the UK Government’s official petitions website, has garnered more than 1,000,000 signatures so far with the committee confirming “the rate of signing” is the highest it has ever had to deal with.


... and Corbyn has refused to rule out backing the revocation of Article 50, so that's his position made both entirely clear and entirely firm, with neither flip-flopping nor retreat likely at all.

If I could turn over 400 seats in our parliament to the German Green Party right now, I would. Caroline Lucas can have one too, and Avaaz and 38 Degrees can share the rest.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Mar 22, 2019 12:30 pm UTC

It just hit 3 million. I wonder if May will lis- actually, no, I'm not wondering if she'll do that.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:21 pm UTC

I signed it.

Though I don't think it'd be right or even feasible to just cancel Brexit, I think it will give succour to those calling for a second referendum, which I think is the only way forward, politically and practically.

It's growing fast (it's already at 3.3m) but it must be approaching a hard limit: If it got to, say, 10m, I'd be amazed but also somewhat sceptical, wondering if bots are now just trying to game the system the other way.

(Interesting enough, whereas a few months ago when I ventured into the dank depths of the BBC comments, there were always thousands of likes for Brexiter comments, now I see thousands of likes for Remainer comments; So I wonder if the Russian bots and trolls have just turned their guns in the other direction for maximum paralysis of the political system...)

(What's also interesting is the heat-map for the petition; It emphasises that nothing's really changed: Wales and Northern Ireland are still basically pro-Brexit (despite being heavy beneficiaries of EU money, so still happy to cut off their nose to spite their face), London remains pro-Remain (despite all its 'hordes of immigrants')...

Ho hum...)
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:27 pm UTC

Or remainers are just much more energised right now, since it's looking like the most insane, self destructive thing that could possibly happen is actually on the table.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:37 pm UTC

The rising prospect of a no-deal Brexit does focus the minds, that's true.

But the politicians voted that a no-deal Brexit couldn't happen, so it's all fine! Nothing to see here!!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby HES » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:40 pm UTC

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:45 pm UTC

Touché...

My youngest is like that sometimes. I'll ask her what she wants for dinner, and she says she doesn't know. So I'll go through, like, 20 choices and she'll refuse all of them. I tell her that unless she chooses something, I'll be the one deciding, and maybe she'll end up with something she really really doesn't want rather than something she just kinda doesn't want...

(Doesn't make any difference though, she still carries on saying no to all my suggestions... Presumably she thinks there's still an outside chance I'll say 'oh, fine, you can have crisps and ice cream for dinner then'...)

Mutex
Posts: 1473
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:58 pm UTC

Well, they "eliminated" No Deal at least in terms of intention, but I don't think they've done the same regarding revoking A50. So logically, if April 12 comes round and it's a choice between No Deal and revoking A50, they should revoke it. I'm sure they won't, I don't think there's even any bills in the works to make this a reality.

maybeagnostic
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby maybeagnostic » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:08 pm UTC

Well, yes, because they voted against all options that are actually possible. They didn't bother voting against revoking Article 50 because none of the people who can do so consider it a possibility.

I'm not quite sure why the EU granted this extension. Aside from getting an extra two weeks of constant bickering, I can't imagine what it can possibly achieve. At least I am glad it isn't the three months May was asking for.
T: ... through an emergency induction port.
S: That's a straw, Tali.
T: Emerrrgency induction port.

elasto
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:12 pm UTC

How does the process of putting forward bills work anyhow, does anyone know?

I imagine revoking A50 has to be via primary legislation, so does that mean only the government can propose it, or would a Labour front-bench or random backbencher motion count?


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