British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Zamfir » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:19 pm UTC

My youngest is like that sometimes.

Ha, my youngest just learned himself a new phrase. "Nee mooi", "no beautiful". Whatever clothes I pick, the clothes are nee mooi. This one, nee mooi, that one, nee mooi. You can choose between these 2. He will shift between the options, die nee die nee die nee die.

Until he realizes that I am setting him up. Then it's nee nee nee nee mooi nee mooi! Kikker! KIKKER! And things get thrown on the ground.

All resemblances to brexit are of course unintended, at least by him.

I'm not quite sure why the EU granted this extension. Aside from getting an extra two weeks of constant bickering, I can't imagine what it can possibly achieve

To avoid being seen as the responsible party for a failure.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:21 pm UTC

You have to laugh:

bbc wrote:How does the EU see it?

EU leaders were reportedly unconvinced by Theresa May's assurance that she could convince the UK Parliament to back her withdrawal deal.

Mrs May made her case for a delay in a 90-minute presentation to her European counterparts and then left the room and the discussions continued for eight hours.

French President Emmanuel Macron said he thought she had a chance of 10% of having her deal approved but after listening to her he had cut his estimate to 5%, Reuters news agency said.

European Council President Donald Tusk replied that Mr Macron was being "very optimistic", it reported.

(lol)

Then the bbc goes on to point out (as someone here recently pointed out also), that this is only the frigging exit part of the process; the UK and EU haven't even really started on detailed negotiations over trade etc...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri Mar 22, 2019 5:03 pm UTC

A depressingly accurate description of how Brexit happened:
https://www.facebook.com/JonathanPieRep ... =2&theater
[Contains strong language]

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Felstaff » Sat Mar 23, 2019 2:19 am UTC

I'm going on the march tomorrow, if anyone wishes to join me (and at least, like, 47 others), PM me. You get to score 10 points on the 'meet-a-mod' scoreboard we have at the xkcd office.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:03 am UTC

Felstaff wrote:I'm going on the march tomorrow, if anyone wishes to join me (and at least, like, 47 others), PM me. You get to score 10 points on the 'meet-a-mod' scoreboard we have at the xkcd office.


It's March today too though?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Thesh » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:07 am UTC

The sentence makes perfect sense to me: "March Today, March Tomorrow, March The Day After Tomorrow, March 25th"
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Sat Mar 23, 2019 3:25 am UTC

Thesh wrote:The sentence makes perfect sense to me: "March Today, March Tomorrow, March The Day After Tomorrow, March 25th"


Just not on the first day of April.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Sat Mar 23, 2019 6:45 am UTC

Felstaff wrote:I'm going on the march tomorrow, if anyone wishes to join me (and at least, like, 47 others), PM me. You get to score 10 points on the 'meet-a-mod' scoreboard we have at the xkcd office.

Thanks for the offer. If I wasn't moving house at the exact same time I'd likely be taking you up on that.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:24 am UTC

Felstaff wrote:I'm going on the march tomorrow, if anyone wishes to join me (and at least, like, 47 others), PM me. You get to score 10 points on the 'meet-a-mod' scoreboard we have at the xkcd office.

I live too far away and have young kids, but I'll be there in spirit.

Good for you though, much props!

The petition currently stands at 4.1m signatures. My guess is there won't be too many more, but 5m certainly seems plausible.

How's this for a prediction:
- The vote on May's deal fails (or isn't even put before the house)
- This petition gives impetus to MPs seeking a second referendum, and a vote to do so passes
- The EU maintains that the UK has to either ratify May's deal or take part in the EU elections
- The UK states there is insufficient time to carry out the referendum before the EU elections, but also refuses to take part in them
- The EU refuses to grant a further extension
- The UK, faced with an immediate no deal, given that parliament specifically voted to rule that out, does the only thing it can and unilaterally revokes A50 pending the referendum!

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:47 pm UTC

The petition has reached 5m now

/flex

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Sun Mar 24, 2019 2:50 pm UTC

I just hope May realises that while she might be obliged to take the UK out of the EU, she'd better make it a soft Brexit aka Norway model. Nothing else is a compromise that won't tear the country apart.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:49 pm UTC

I have a feeling that before too long it won't be up to her. Parliament is going to take full control and May will be sidelined.

(Yes, she might get sacked, but I'm not sure any of her key challengers want that right now; Seems like the job is as much of a poisoned chalice as when Cameron resigned; Much better to snipe from the sidelines... And I don't feel like she'll resign while her plan stays alive; If it falls though, then so will she.)

I also think it's hugely significant that Hammond has come out and said that a second referendum is 'a perfectly coherent proposition' which 'deserves to be considered'.

My hunch is he's saying that with May's blessing; she can't come out and say it since she's trying to keep the Tory party from falling apart, but he can because he can't make any more enemies than he already has...

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Tue Mar 26, 2019 4:46 pm UTC

In non-Brexit EU news, and not even anything to do with copyright, the times they are a changin'. (Or, rather, they won't be).

In 4 hours that article has garnered 605 comments! (Compare to 93 for four hours about the copyright thing.) And so many of those are from utter eejits. This is a good argument against letting "the people" decide anything.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:04 pm UTC

Yeah, but if you don't let "the people" decide, what are you left with?

What? Democratically elected representatives carefully consulting with experts should be deciding stuff? Outrageous.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:22 pm UTC

Also an advisory referendum is legally nothing more than an opinion poll. It told the government that at that time, a tiny majority of people were in favour of leaving (or protest voting). They then used the idea people were in favour of leaving as a reason to leave. But if it's no longer true, then their only reason for going through with this goes up in flames.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:43 pm UTC

Just got an email back from the government about the petition (as I'm sure everyone here did who signed).

In it they totally ignore the fact that parliament only agreed this to be an advisory referendum (so it was government overreach to commit to it), and they totally ignore the fact that public opinion can nuance or change (I mean, a general election is a binding referendum too but should the result of one stand for all time with no option to revisit when we realise the government we elected is sh*t..?)

I actually got pretty annoyed by how blunt and dismissive it was.

(Didn't help that some of the arguments were quite spurious too, like how 'in 2017 80% of people voted for parties promising to leave the EU' - as if in a FPTP election anything can be read into that in terms of any one issue. And, also, Mrs May, in the UK we vote for MP's not parties. What if I voted for my MP because I specifically knew they supported Remain and expected them to follow on my wishes in that regard..?)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:22 am UTC

Mutex wrote:Also an advisory referendum is legally nothing more than an opinion poll. It told the government that at that time, a tiny majority of people were in favour of leaving (or protest voting). They then used the idea people were in favour of leaving as a reason to leave. But if it's no longer true, then their only reason for going through with this goes up in flames.


I might know some of those feels. I can't remember exactly, but I think it was stated that certain systems were in place to prevent an upstart candidate like Bernie from becoming a nominee.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Angua » Wed Mar 27, 2019 7:53 am UTC

elasto wrote:I actually got pretty annoyed by how blunt and dismissive it was.

This has been my impression of the government response to every petition that I have signed.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Mar 27, 2019 8:09 am UTC

Ok, now this made me chuckle:

Email from 8 hours ago: 'The Government has responded to your petition: "We cannot and will not revoke Article 50"'
Email from 2 hours ago: 'Parliament has responded to your petition: "We will debate revoking Article 50"'

In some ways it's a schizophrenic clusterf*ck. In some ways it's the system actually working as intended, especially given that this whole thing was about 'taking back our sovereignty'...


(I actually don't think parliament will revoke A50, and nor do I think they should, but this government deserves a hearty dose of humiliation for how poorly they've handled this from start to finish, fwiw...)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Sableagle » Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:47 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Ok, now this made me chuckle:

Email from 8 hours ago: 'The Government has responded to your petition: "We cannot and will not revoke Article 50"'
Email from 2 hours ago: 'Parliament has responded to your petition: "We will debate revoking Article 50"'

In some ways it's a schizophrenic clusterf*ck. In some ways it's the system actually working as intended, especially given that this whole thing was about 'taking back our sovereignty'...


(I actually don't think parliament will revoke A50, and nor do I think they should, but this government deserves a hearty dose of humiliation for how poorly they've handled this from start to finish, fwiw...)


I saw an ITV News thing recently (last night?) saying that Parliament (650 MPs elected by Da Pipple) had voted to take control of the process off the Government (a dozen gits chosen by some party leader) ... and that the Government has not yet decided whether to tell MPs how to vote on the matter.

They just voted to decide things themselves rather than letting you decide for them, and now you're making up your mind whether or not to tell them what decision to make? {Insert Jesus_facepalm here}
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby EdgarJPublius » Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:08 pm UTC

Angua wrote:
elasto wrote:I actually got pretty annoyed by how blunt and dismissive it was.

This has been my impression of the government response to every petition that I have signed.


One of these days I'm gonna dig up the Obama Administration's response to a petition to increase NASA's budget which summarized as 'We're going to double the number of manned launch vehicles we have (this at a time when we had zero manned launch vehicles, and last I checked, double zero is still zero) And cut NASA's budget which will paradoxically enable them to do more science somehow.'

Thinking back on it, I'm pretty sure that's the exact moment my infatuation with Obama died.
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Wed Mar 27, 2019 2:33 pm UTC

Sableagle wrote:I saw an ITV News thing recently (last night?) saying that Parliament (650 MPs elected by Da Pipple) had voted to take control of the process off the Government (a dozen gits chosen by some party leader) ... and that the Government has not yet decided whether to tell MPs how to vote on the matter.

I wish this could somehow be a teaching moment for the public but I've no idea who'd wish to do it:
- Parliament is sovereign, not government
- People elect MPs as their representatives; Parties and leaders are convenient fictions
- MPs should be praised for being 'awkward'; Those who do nothing but vote the party line do nothing for good governance - which is why the overly maligned House of Lords is a valuable part of our system
- We pool sovereignty with foreign actors all the time - from the WTO to NATO to international courts to trade agreements etc.; and pooling sovereignty doesn't mean losing it, it means trading it - we gain sovereignty over others in return.

Who's gonna say all that though? Parties have a vested interest in keeping MPs loyal and subservient; The media has a vested interest in keeping things fractious and melodramatic. Schools would be a good place to start, but that won't get through to the majority.

Ho hum.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Mar 27, 2019 3:25 pm UTC

Soupspoon wrote:In non-Brexit EU news, and not even anything to do with copyright, the times they are a changin'. (Or, rather, they won't be).

In 4 hours that article has garnered 605 comments! (Compare to 93 for four hours about the copyright thing.) And so many of those are from utter eejits. This is a good argument against letting "the people" decide anything.

(Three hours old, 2483 comments about the UK adopting EU speed-limiting legislation! Have not read the comments at all, just using my imagination. Personally, having driven half the length of the country and back, at the end of last week and then the weekend, very few of those speeding past me on the motorways were merely overtaking. But that's a discussion for elsewhere.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Wed Mar 27, 2019 5:56 pm UTC

elasto wrote:Schools would be a good place to start, but that won't get through to the majority.


Government controls the curriculum, so it will never happen anyway (outside of a few maverick teachers)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby ElWanderer » Wed Mar 27, 2019 10:18 pm UTC

Unsurprisingly, all eight indicative votes were rejected - after all, all MPs can agree on is that they disagree.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47728333

The two proposals with the most aye votes were a customs union with the EU and a second referendum (not sure of the exact details of what would be voted for).
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby orthogon » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:20 am UTC

The next stage (if May doesn't get her deal through on Friday) is apparently going to be some form of preferential voting amongst the more popular options. I hope that happens, because presumably they'll publish all the raw data and geeks like us can do so kinds of stuff with it: looking for a Condorcet winner, simulating instant run-off etc. We can find the eigenvectors of the preference matrix and hence visualize the different factions in multiple dimensions.

Someone was on the Today programme the other day saying "well, it would be nice if there were a way of establishing the preference of the House between all these options, but nobody has come up with one", to which I was delighted to hear the presenter respond "actually there are ways of doing that - we've had people on the programme explaining them". Interviewee says "ah but they're too complicated". Yeah, so are jet engines and mobile phones, so let's not use those either.

(Citations available if challenged - just too much of a faff on a phone!)
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:04 pm UTC

ElWanderer wrote:Unsurprisingly, all eight indicative votes were rejected - after all, all MPs can agree on is that they disagree.

To expect MPs to resolve in a single session something the government with all its resources and arm-twisting couldn't resolve in two years is pretty harsh.

The important thing is there's a route forward: some options are effectively killed off permanently while others remain on the table for negotiation. For example, the SNP and the Lib Dems seemed to abstain from some of the popular options first time around and I'm sure some consensus there can be found.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby ElWanderer » Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:26 pm UTC

I heard somewhere (some random, unverified Twitter post probably) that 49 MPs voted against all eight options, which seems fairly pointless except as a protest against... something I can't really fathom.

I was heartened that the more sensible options seem to have more support than jumping off the no deal cliff. Then again, didn't they only narrowly vote against no deal in an earlier session?

Oh, and they voted against the withdrawal agreement (344 to 286): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47752017
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:09 am UTC

Is it April 12th as Brexit or later?

How will Britain like its Brexit? Over easy, over hard, scrambled? Maybe substitute the Brexit for a toast?
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Apr 03, 2019 11:18 am UTC

Well, there's egg and brexit; egg sausage and brexit; egg and spam; egg brexit and spam; egg brexit sausage and spam; spam brexit sausage and spam; spam egg spam spam brexit and spam; spam sausage spam spam brexit spam tomato and spam…

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby ijuin » Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:37 pm UTC

Bloody Vikings.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Fri May 03, 2019 5:36 pm UTC

Local elections in large parts of England, and all of Northern Ireland. The Tories lose big because they fuck up everything, especially Brexit. Labour is losing, but not big. Mainly because they fuck up the easiest job in the world right now: be an effective opposition against the Tories in the Brexit clusterfuck.

The LibDems, a remain party and the third biggest party in the UK (or is that SNP atm?), win big time because the remain voters may finally understand that the two main parties want Brexit. Meanwhile, lunatic MPs from the Tories and Labour are explaining this as "we must deliver on Brexit ASAP, the people want us to just get on with Brexit", and they point out that leave voters vote LibDem in protest over this as the Brexit party is not available in the local elections yet. I really don't believe that last bit, I suspect they just stayed at home, with a turnout of 30%.

But this here is so idiotic that I would like to know what drugs he's been sniffing. It for sure as hell is not available in Amsterdam.

Brexiteer Tory MP Mark Francois has predicted the EU elections will be an "absolute tsunami" for the Conservative Party.

Reviewing the Tory performance in the local elections, the MP said: “This is just the beginning.”

He added: “In a tsunami the sea goes out, and comes crashing back in. This is the sea going out. The 23rd of May will be an absolute tsunami.”

“On the 23rd of May, people will get their own back on the establishment. They will take their revenge.”

The Conservative MP said the UK would never leave the EU while Theresa May was prime minister.

He said: “The only way we will leave is if my party elects a Brexiteer, someone who voted to leave, who’s got their heart in it."


There are no words available in the dictionary, in any language, to describe what this is. Believe me I have tried to find a word. I am now thinking of every stupid and embarrassing thing I have said or done in my life (you know, the kind of thing you suddenly think of when you're about to fall asleep and then you spend an hour wishing you could sink away in your bed forever), and nothing, absolutely fucking nothing, is as disconnected from reality and common sense as what Mark Francois has said here.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri May 03, 2019 5:56 pm UTC

The excuses from the brexiters have had me worried for their well-being today. I'm still struggling with the idea of people voting for explicitly pro-Remain parties and abandoning UKIP entirely to voice their opinion that... we should get on with Brexit. And they can't make up their minds whether the Conservatives and Labour are pro-Brexit or not. One moment, people still mostly voted for pro-Brexit parties, the next moment pro-leave people stayed home because there were no pro-Brexit parties on the ballot.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri May 03, 2019 6:10 pm UTC

Is anyone else disillusioned by the result though? I mean, I was one of those who carefully read the election leaflets and picked counsellors based on the local issues. But screw all that, all that matters is Brexit, right?

How many counsellors doing great jobs for their local communities got tossed out, and how many average performers got brought in, all in the name of giving the main parties a black eye..? Doubly ironic since voters wanting to give the establishment a black eye is what got us into this Brexit mire to begin with...

And I say this as someone who voted Lib Dem and whose chosen counsellor gained their seat, so I guess I should be happy...

Democracy is wasted on us.

(To be fair, I just noticed that the number of independent counsellors more than doubled, so maybe that's a positive marker of health. And national party popularity does always play a part. It shouldn't though.)

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Mutex » Fri May 03, 2019 8:06 pm UTC

When you put it like that it's kinda weird local councillors have a party affiliation at all.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Fri May 24, 2019 7:17 am UTC

Quick summary of the last week. Theresa May has tried to put her deal to the vote for the 4th time, now with concessions to Labour (she was negotiating but the talks broke down). Concessions appear to be too little for Labour but too much for the Tories.

As a result, her cabinet has staged a mutiny, and now it seems to be the final nail in the coffin for Theresa May, she is expected to make a statement of resignation in some hours. Today feels different than any other time, mostly because the cabinet is telling her to quit.

Meanwhile, the EU elections took place in the UK, elections that will give Farage a big win because he's successful in his narrative of betrayal, to a very large section of Brexit-voters. EU citizens have been turned away from the polling stations because everything is fucked up. #DeniedMyVote went trending on Twitter, and the electoral commission had to work overtime to force the staff at the polling stations to allow the EU citizens to vote. But still it's votes lost. I'm hoping that a court case comes from this. Would be brilliant if the judges said 'redo the EU election because you failed to uphold the requirements of a democracy.'

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby elasto » Fri May 24, 2019 8:43 am UTC

Plasma_Wolf wrote:I'm hoping that a court case comes from this. Would be brilliant if the judges said 'redo the EU election because you failed to uphold the requirements of a democracy.'

If a second referendum occurs I'm not sure it would be good PR for EU elections to be redone, especially if it's European judges or European rules forcing it...

Looking back, I think May made two critical mistakes that led to all this mess.

The first was that there was no actual need to invoke Article 50 immediately, especially since the referendum wasn't binding. May should have realised right from the start that getting the whole of parliament on board was essential, and the parliamentary debates going on now should have occurred at the beginning. Only once politicians were united need A50 be triggered.

Secondly, May should never have run with the nonsense of 'Brexit means Brexit'; Instead she should have made the case to the British public right from the start that the country is basically split right down the middle on whether to stay or leave and so a hard Brexit could not possibly be a representative outcome: If mum wants an egg for breakfast and dad wants a slice of toast, the compromise cannot possibly be three eggs each...

Sure, a soft Brexit satisfies noone but we seem to have forgotten as a country that grown up politics is about compromise, and that any form of winner-takes-all leaves the losing side feeling disenfranchised and ripe for exploitation.

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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Plasma_Wolf » Fri May 24, 2019 11:39 am UTC

The PR thing should be irrelevant. The narrative of undemocratic European institutions is bigger than the actual news on the campaign fraud during the Brexit campaign could be enough to have flipped the result. This fact should be of great concern to anyone but somehow the possibility of bad PR or outrage (or whatever you would like to call it) over calling a re-run of a referendum or election is the message that comes forward. This message of bad PR should be actively fought, and the fact that it never has is another symptom of the domestic British problems that resulted in Brexit.

The two points about May's behavior are spot-on.

Anyway, she steps down as party leader on the 7th of June, and will then be caretaker PM until the next Tory is elected.

Also before people will say "so sad for May that she has to leave with everyone hating her for just trying", she actively contributed to the hostile environment that is now taking her political life: 1, 2.

gd1
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby gd1 » Fri May 24, 2019 11:52 am UTC

May leaving in June? Yeah, that works.
There is no emotion more useless in life than hate.

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Quercus
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Re: British EU referendum in June [update: Leave wins 52% - 48%, politics ensue]

Postby Quercus » Fri May 24, 2019 1:15 pm UTC

gd1 wrote:May leaving in June? Yeah, that works.


Yeah, except the front-runner to replace her is fucking Boris Johnson, so we're probably going from bad to worse.


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