Wams belated simple game - Day 3

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:16 pm UTC

Quick check-in before bed. I'm away with family until Tuesday, celebrating two birthdays, including my own tomorrow, and mothering Sunday. As such, I've not had any time to do any in depth homework for Sabrar, sorry, and won't have much time to do anything until I'm back. Without thinking about it too much, my scum team without the scum!moody flip would have been LaserGuy/Madge, I think, but I'm not certain. I need to review the end of Day 2 votals to see who makes more sense as moody's buddy now (Madge is an obvious candidate, for not voting, but it's not a strong indicator).

Madge, pretty sure mpolo claimed Jailkeeper (need to think whether scum!Madge would make that mistake) I'm assuming he successfully blocked somebody (about 90% chance), but there's a chance that the remaining scum withheld to try to convince us that he did, to encourage a mislynch/spread wine.

Going to bed now.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Madge » Sun Mar 31, 2019 11:48 pm UTC

damnit, sorry for missing that.

jailkeeper modifies my post about anyone being silly and forgetting to counterclaim, in case it needed to be said:

rolecop/(real)jailkeeper (IF YOU ARE A JAILKEEPER, CLAIM NOW AND WE WILL PROBABLY VOTE YOU OFF BUT THEN WE VOTE SCUM!MPOLO OFF AND WIN)
rolecop/cop/roleblocker (IF YOU ARE A COP OR ROLEBLOCKER, CLAIM NOW AND WE WILL PROBABLY VOTE YOU OFF BUT THEN WE VOTE SCUM!MPOLO OFF AND WIN)
rolecop/tracker/doctor (IF YOU ARE A TRACKER OR DOCTOR, CLAIM NOW AND WE WILL PROBABLY VOTE YOU OFF BUT THEN WE VOTE SCUM!MPOLO OFF AND WIN)

also all the crap about the doctor, which we don't have. ugh. sorry for wasting everyone's time with my useless post.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 6:17 am UTC

Most of this is fairly moot given that moody was actually scum which puts plytho in extremely good townie standing.

plytho gets townie credit for refusing to attempt to lynch me even when I gave him more than enough opportunity to do so. A lot of my initial scummy feelings regarding plytho were due to a vibe that I got from him early in the day that he had done a big shift in his reads to accommodate lynching me, and was setting himself up to vote me. His reluctance to do so even at the end of the day comes across as townie and his herculean efforts to try to convince me of his reasoning is very Town!plytho.
plytho wrote:I don't care :D I don't want to mislynch you.

I feel plytho, especially in the later stages of the day (basically after his efforts stopped being derailed by me), seemed to be genuinely trying to solve the game and evaluate things critically. He had a number of opportunities where he probably could have coasted on a safe lynch, but really wanted to dig for scum.

There's a number of posts that, individually, feel very townie. E.g.:
plytho wrote:I don't have time to link to posts but my LaserGuy town read was triggered by how easy it was to lynch him. I didn't feel entirely comfortable with that. I felt like I could have voted LaserGuy early in the day and seal his fate. To do that I felt I needed to be very confident in my read. At some point his night logic supplemented by his notes started to make sense to me. The only thing that didn't make sense was the basis for his read on me. So I started that line of questioning to show that my reasoning based on available info made sense. That ended in a very satisfying way and made town!LaserGuy quite possible.

I basically agree with all of this.

plytho wrote:Tbh, I legit think I'm nailing this game. Like I actually think I'll only vote scum this game.

plytho wrote:Who, but town, would think they solved the game? Scum have nothing to solve. Moody is showing he thinks of me as town.


This is confident Town. I have a hard time imagining this ever coming from scum. Scum needs to preserve some ambiguity in their reads.

plytho wrote:Enjoy lylo.
Lynch moody and jimbob if you want to win.


There's a chance this could be scum, but I lean town on this.

In the end, I had to choose between plytho and moody, and my main worry (unfounded, as it turns out) was that I was being forced to choose between two Town wagons because I was really sold on Madge/jimbob.


I don't honestly feel there's much to discuss today until we get a claim from mpolo. Madge's posting above feels... townie. I think scum!Madge would be more aware of the correct PR situation and I don't think she'd fake it.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 9:27 am UTC

Jimbob remains the most obvious candidate for moody's buddy. (Maybe too obvious?) For reasons mentioned in my earlier posts.

I also felt like moody and jimbob both responded to my read by either buddying me with a sudden town read (jimbob) or trying to lynch me (moody) while distancing each other. Jimbob's town read of me felt over the top:
jimbobmacdoodle wrote: I'm happy to put him as town, although behind mpolo and Sabrar.
Like why would you even consider calling me townier than mpolo?

The last line in this post, that I think I mentioned in my notes as indicative of a possible Madge-moody link, now looks to me like moody is figuring out who might vote jimbob D1. That is moody's only investigative question.

Another thing I think I might have pointed out at some point D2 is moody's lack of a read on jimbob. This is where things go into too obvious territory. This could be moody emphasizing a fake connection in order to get a jimbob mislynch. On the other hand in a winey way it could be deliberately obvious? This allows moody to avoid slipping in the read and might make us think "well he wouldn't just ignore requests for a read on his buddy".

I'll believe mpolo's result if it's Madge or jimbob. Btw, mpolo should definitely announce his next target beforehand.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:45 am UTC

I'm not clearing anyone 100% based on their D2 vote alone.

mpolo wrote:We are really interested who you jailed last night.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 1:05 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:I'm not clearing anyone 100% based on their D2 vote alone.
Yeah, moody was obviously bussed (possibly by omission).

I don't think Madge would abandon/forget the game if she had a buddy. Forgetting about it as town makes more sense (she trusts us to figure things out).

Vote: jimbob

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:29 pm UTC

I jailed jimbob last night. Which has him looking pretty bad.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:31 pm UTC

So either jimbob is scum, or scum withheld their kill. Any reason to believe the latter?
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:46 pm UTC

mpolo wrote:So either jimbob is scum, or scum withheld their kill. Any reason to believe the latter?
To frame me (or whoever you happened to target)? Nobody is going to believe me though, I expect, based on how yesterday went.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:59 pm UTC

That seems perfectly consistent with what I was expecting.

Vote: jimbob

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:08 pm UTC

I don't see any but I may be a little biased :D

Generally withholding keeps you alive, which is very dangerous for scum. I don't really see this coming from Madge. LaserGuy would have lynched me or jimbob instead of moody (same goes for Sabrar).

So lynch jimbob. If necessary jail Madge (make sure you say so ahead of time). Then lynch accordingly.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:15 pm UTC

plytho wrote:I don't really see this coming from Madge.
This I fully agree with. Therefore plytho needs to be jailed tonight and we have a guaranteed win even if jimbob turns out to be town.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:17 pm UTC

Jailing Madge is bad because if mpolo gets killed then we have to choose between plytho and LaserGuy. This way if mpolo gets killed we will know to lynch LaserGuy next.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:17 pm UTC

I will vote jimbob once mpolo acknowledges that plytho will be jailed tonight,

PS: technically it works with LaserGuy as well.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:25 pm UTC

Btw, to clarify why mpolo should declare his target: if mpolo dies that target is confirmed town.

And I think it's slightly likelier that Madge would withhold than that LaserGuy would lynch his buddy while there are two townie options that could easily be lynched. But these are worst case details. Jimbob lynch ends the game.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:28 pm UTC

My narrative for scum!LaserGuy is that he fully intended to unvote before deadline (as stated) and he totally didn't expect me to unvote first after which he was stuck. This is far more likely than Madge withholding.

I agree with the reasoning why mpolo needs to declare his target, that is the obvious play.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:47 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:My narrative for scum!LaserGuy is that he fully intended to unvote before deadline (as stated) and he totally didn't expect me to unvote first after which he was stuck. This is far more likely than Madge withholding.
Hmm, that does look good. Yeah, lynch jimbob, jail LaserGuy seems like the way to go.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:57 pm UTC

I'm okay with that.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:02 pm UTC

O.K. I will jail plytho tonight. (This wakes a nagging fear that Sabrar is playing us, but that way lays insanity…)
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:07 pm UTC

Thank you. I feel game is finally solved, I don't mind if someone hammers.

In the non-existent world where I die tonight mpolo and plytho will be confirmed town, please lynch LaserGuy and jail Madge D4, you can lynch Madge D5 if necessary.

Vote: jimbobmacdoodle

If game is not over today then I would like to request a shorter night as there is no scum-chat anymore.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:24 pm UTC

Vote:jimbobmacdoodle
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby wam » Mon Apr 01, 2019 7:54 pm UTC

that's hammer

Votals

Jimbobmacdoodle - 4 - plytho, laserguy , sabrar, mpolo

Game over town wins

Comments when I get a chance!
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:00 pm UTC

Yay! GG all!

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:03 pm UTC

Good game, thanks to all, my reads were terrible this game. Thanks for modding wam!

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Re: Wams belated simple game - day 2

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:05 pm UTC

plytho wrote:Tbh, I legit think I'm nailing this game. Like I actually think I'll only vote scum this game.
8-)
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby plytho » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:14 pm UTC

Congrats to my fellow townies!

Thanks wam for modding.

I had a great time. Being vanilla town is quite nice.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Sabrar » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:21 pm UTC

I actually was happy with the first iteration...
But I'm glad I provided some entertainment for the viewers.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby LaserGuy » Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:26 pm UTC

Quick shout outs:

Sabrar - As I said, I will try to rethink my approach to you because what I was doing this game obviously didn't work. You obvtowned very well this game which helped a lot IMHO. I'm glad we came to some sort of workable understanding by the end of D2 though.

I agree it would have been very fun to play scum with you, but 'twas not to be :)

plytho - You were a beast this game. Hard to argue with those results. Thanks for not lynching me D2 ;) I need to learn to just stop tunneling you because I'm always wrong :P I did try to give you a pass D1 specifically to avoid tunneling you, but then I just ramped up D2 and well, that happened.

Madge - Would have loved to see more of you. Enjoy Europe!

moody7277 - You did a great job of playing your townie meta this game. You had a few small slips but were very solid. I do appreciate that you were the only person who believed me, even if you were mafia :P

mpolo - Your claim was perfectly timed and you caught the NK. Well done.

Jimbobmacdoodle - You did a good job of handling the pressure both D1 and D2. Not much you could do against that Town bloc by the end of D2.

Somitomi - Sorry you ended up getting lynched, though I guess that's a risk you take when you do a gambit.

Bessie - Shame you got NKed N1, I really like playing Town with you, and I think you probably would have nailed this one had you survived. I really enjoyed reading your GoJoe commentary :)

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby moody7277 » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:49 am UTC

So I think my main issues were being the one to finish somi D1, and completely ignoring jimbob D2. That first part goes into the "voting shenanigans" file for scum behavior. I had high hopes when I saw me and jimbob were scum together again, guess the LaserGuy factor was missing from our winning combination that we had in Meta Mafia.

plytho: you were relentless, unswervable, and down-right scary in this game. I hold my question from the spoilers of wam's chaos game answered, and I hope to get vengeance by defeating you in the future.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Madge » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:17 am UTC

GG everyone, thank you for being patient with me! now i'm taking a mafia hiatus for 6-8 months I'll be forever getting notifications in my priority inbox so at least i'm sorted for when i come back :lol:

I think catching the moody slip was the game-winning move!

I wonder under what circumstances scum withholding is a good idea in situations like this? If scum withheld in this case, jimbob would still be voted off, but if jimbob had been considered widely townie and thus unlikely to be targeted then it might have been more in scum's interest.

Also the game wasn't fully solved, right? Jimbob could have been the NK target?
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Vicarin » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:35 am UTC

If scum witholds, then mpolo just keeps getting more chances to block the NK. Assuming a strong block of 2 town, scum has to make a move and kill at least one of them before getting to 3 people.

If scum kills, but not on mpolo, then I don't know what the hell they're doing. Each night that happens, another person gets confirmed town, quickly making scum lose.

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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby Madge » Tue Apr 02, 2019 1:41 am UTC

Yeah, scum's only choice was to kill mpolo really, so mpolo's jailer functionally works as a roleblocker once mpolo claimed. And scum knows they've got no option other than to kill mpolo since they know the setup. So there was no chance of jimbob being the NK target.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby somitomi » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:50 am UTC

Good game everyone, guess I'll have to work on my skills of talking myself out of it.
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But I'm glad I provided some entertainment for the viewers.

Sorry about that.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby mpolo » Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:59 pm UTC

Took me forever to get on the right page here. The next few weeks are total chaos here, so will be taking a hiatus for a while. Otherwise I'm just going to be limping along like this time.

Thanks Sabrar and plytho. Without you two I would have surely chosen wrong.
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby wam » Tue Apr 02, 2019 7:55 pm UTC

Glad you all enjoyed it. I thought the setup picked was nice and neutral. Halfway through day 2 thought it would be a scum walk over.

Sorry for the mistakes with version 1. Also sorry if I was a bit absent work was mental then was away for a week!

Plytho gets my vote for MVP for calling the scum team so early!
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Re: Wams belated simple game - Day 3

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Tue Apr 02, 2019 9:16 pm UTC

Good game all. I'm not sure what else I could have done. I went with a high risk strategy of pushing on moody in the second half of D2, in the hope of killing mpolo that night. After that, I think it might have been possible to still pull something off, but who knows. I think this game shows that a 2 person scum team is always going to be hard-pressed, because there is no room for mistake.
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