Unlikely Superheroes (Endgame)

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LaserGuy
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby LaserGuy » Fri May 17, 2019 6:07 am UTC

Current votals:

BoomFrog (1): wam

Not voting: Everyone else

Deadline is in 4 days, 10 hours

dimochka has been prodded.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Fri May 17, 2019 7:13 am UTC

@Bessie

Sorry wasnt clear.

Logic is that assuming we have a nk faction either a doc saved someone last night or boom was carrying out the kill and couldn't due to RB.

Boom claimed doc, if boom is telling the truth we must have another protective role out there. I dont think we have two doctors therefore boom must be lying and ergo is scum.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 17, 2019 8:04 am UTC

freezeblade wrote:I'll have a larger post very soon, with a T-S list.
Please do this before the weekend.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby jimbobmacdoodle » Fri May 17, 2019 8:38 am UTC

Just to warn everyone that I'm not likely to have much chance to post between now and Sunday evening at best, due to having a visitor. I'll try to make sure that I get back online on Sunday.

At the risk of sounding hypocritical, I'm slightly concerned that we are all focusing on BoomFrog so much. Whilst my instinct is to lynch him (it'll help clarify wam's ability apart from anything else, and also semi-confirm freezeblade), he almost certainly isn't the only person we'll need to deal with, and by focusing so much on him, we're at risk of this day being nothing other than a chance to put on lots of red t-shirts with all the claims, if BoomFrog is being truthful.

I actually agree with BoomFrog's logic re. not being the one to be picked for the kill. I don't think that he's the only killer out there, assuming he's an SK. If he is an SK, whatever other killing faction is out there probably has a kill restriction, likely as does SK!BoomFrog.

My thoughts on SJ have firmed up a bit. I don't think SJ is scum. Whilst scum!SJ might try to leak fake role information, I'm inclined to think that he isn't faking it. The tone of resignation sounds like it is coming from a townie or indie who has been dealt a bad hand, in the view of a newbie. There are a couple of things that don't entirely make sense, but these are largely wording issues and I'm trying not to put too much stock in them, since I have a bad track record with that sort of thing. However, I do see bessie's point about SJ's No Result not making much sense, since that would imply 2 roleblockers (but see below).

@SJ - Please confirm with the mod whether a failure to get a result is distinguishable from being informed that there were no visitors. Sometimes there aren't.

I'd like to see if dimochka has anything to say about this result too.

If we do have two more killing factions, I wouldn't be surprised by a plethora of blocking/protective roles. I tend to view town roleblockers and doctors as somewhat similar to each other in terms of usefulness. So far we've had two roleblockers claimed or implied and an indie bodyguard. I think there's room for one more of this ilk in the field somewhere, with a second kill.

It's possible SJ was roleblcked by scum by the way. His leaks could easily have been taken to mean an investigative power.
bessie wrote:I am skeptical of SuicideJunkie’s claim. If SuicideJunkie was roleblocked and wam is telling the truth, we have two roleblockers.
Why are you assuming that both roleblockers are Town aligned? Or do you believe that because town has a roleblocker, scum can't?
BoomFrog wrote:It's possible but I think a 2 person mafia is more likely.
How does this line up with Vicarin's flip? Also, how about some reads?

I'm at work now. Hopefully, I'll be able to post later on today, but no promises. Something that might prove useful in hunting down Vicarin's buddy/buddies would be a votal timeline. If somebody gets a chance, could they post it?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Fri May 17, 2019 9:51 am UTC

Just as a heads up I am travelling Monday and Tuesday so will be very limited in posting in the run up to deadline.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 17, 2019 10:00 am UTC

@bessie: do you have updated setup-spec?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:and also semi-confirm freezeblade)
freezeblade's info is already confirmed. BoomFrog admitted to both pieces of information he provided and wam also confirmed the church of moo. Unless freezeblade is in cahoot with the both of them and this is a super complicated ploy (note: this is never the case here) then freezeblade's ability looks real. The only other possibility (although very unlikely) is that freezeblade is also member of moo with wam and they gambited hoping the non-town read on BoomFrog was correct. Or I guess freezeblade could be BoomFrog's buddy and decided to sacrifice him after he was 'found' by the roleblock and no NK. Again, unlikely.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Something that might prove useful in hunting down Vicarin's buddy/buddies would be a votal timeline. If somebody gets a chance, could they post it?
Timeline of votes on Vicarin, SuicideJunkie, BoomFrog from D1:
Spoiler:
jimbob votes SJ (BF0; SJ1; Vic0)
Vicarin votes BF (BF1; SJ1; Vic0)
BF self-vote (BF2; SJ1; Vic0)
PW votes BF (BF3; SJ1; Vic0)
Vicarin unvotes & votes SJ (BF2; SJ2; Vic0)
BF votes dimochka (thereby unvoting himself) (BF1; SJ2; Vic0)
SJ votes Vicarin (BF1; SJ2; Vic1)
wam votes BF (BF2; SJ2; Vic1)
Sabrar votes SJ (BF2; SJ3; Vic1)
wam votes Vicarin (unvotes BF) (BF1; SJ3; Vic2)
BF votes Vicarin (BF1; SJ3; Vic3)
PW unvotes (BF0; SJ3; Vic3)
BF votes dimochka (unvoting Vic) (BF0; SJ3; Vic2)
jimbob unvotes SJ (BF0; SJ2; Vic2)

personal opinion: this is approximately the line from where true intentions will be shown instead of possible posturing (especially since there was little last minute movement)

dimochka votes BF (BF1; SJ2; Vic2)
jimbob votes Vicarin (BF1; SJ2; Vic3)
bessie votes SJ (BF1; SJ3; Vic3)
BoomFrog votes SJ (BF1; SJ4; Vic3)
Sabrar votes Vicarin (unvoting SJ) (BF1; SJ3; Vic4)
BF votes Vicarin (unvoting SJ) (BF1; SJ2; Vic5)

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Fri May 17, 2019 10:07 am UTC

Reading that, could boom be vics partner. Looks like a last minute oh vic is going to be lynched let's make sure my vote is on him.

Given my view of vic boom team I'm worried its confirmation bias.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 17, 2019 10:19 am UTC

If BF is Vic's buddy then he didn't have a kill action N1.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Fri May 17, 2019 10:54 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:If BF is Vic's buddy then he didn't have a kill action N1.


That is true. Hmm need to think about this.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby dimochka » Fri May 17, 2019 11:19 am UTC

I'm sorry, quick phone post because of work
Spoiler:
because my project leader is afraid to push back at another project leader and somehow I'm on 3 project for the next 2 business days, without any clarity on prioritization. And of course everything is "urgent"

Anyway I see no logical reason not to trust freezeblade's power. Boomfrog should be the lynch target in my opinion, and we should focus on the rest of the group. I'm still thinking my original 7-2-1-1 is not unreasonable. I thought 7-2-2 was logical after flip but cult complicates it.

Without getting into details, I have no idea whatsoever why SJ didn't get a result. I don't think this automatically implies that he's lying (and actually put the chances of him lying here at very low) but that tells me that some other powers were likely at play. Will reanalyze my list to see who might have had it out for me (or the complete opposite).
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri May 17, 2019 3:31 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:It's possible but I think a 2 person mafia is more likely.
How does this line up with Vicarin's flip? Also, how about some reads?
I don't understand the concern. I think things started at 6-2-2-1. That fits with the restriction on the Apps NK so that things aren't too unbalanced D2 if we'd mislynched. With a mislynch, NK and vote steal then town is left at 4 people with 3 votes, vs 3 votes, 2, 1. But everyone still has to vote in a townie way because no faction has a majority. The apps can never get too blatant until the mafia is dead, and I'm forced to play townie until me+mafia is the majority.

Plus the protective powers and the pretty good cop and it seems as balanced as an 11 person multiball can be.

I'll work on reads since you seem sincere about not summarily executing me.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Fri May 17, 2019 5:38 pm UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:At the risk of sounding hypocritical, I'm slightly concerned that we are all focusing on BoomFrog so much.

We have 3 main issues (which overlap to some degree).

1. What is BoomFrog? Survivor/SK/Mafia A/Mafia B/Cult recruit/etc.
2. Who is/are Vicarin's buddy/buddies?
3. Why is there a discrepancy between SuicideJunkie's and dimochka's claims?

I would like to hear somitomi's opinion first on all 3. I will probably post my thoughts on Sunday.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby moody7277 » Fri May 17, 2019 7:22 pm UTC

The best I can determine from the claims is that freezeblade looks good, wam is non-town of some yet to be determined threat level, and BoomFrog is looking rather bad. On the SJ front, I'm still confused by his posting. If he is a threat, I think he is an isolated one and can wait until we get the more coordinated threat, which at this point looks like the "Apps of Destruction".

BoomFrog wrote:That fits with the restriction on the Apps NK so that things aren't too unbalanced D2 if we'd mislynched. With a mislynch, NK and vote steal then town is left at 4 people with 3 votes, vs 3 votes, 2, 1.


So, something like Apps can't NK N1, mafia B (which may or may not be Church of Moo) can't NK N2?

Homework for me is to look into some of the other players than we're focusing on in the main, maybe develop my own feeling on Sabrar's point 3.
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Fri May 17, 2019 7:39 pm UTC

Moody I am definitely town!
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby BoomFrog » Fri May 17, 2019 7:42 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:So, something like Apps can't NK N1, mafia B (which may or may not be Church of Moo) can't NK N2?

Well I was saying mafia B just have a full NK but failed N1 for some reason. Although, mafia B being poisoners or some other restriction makes sense too. If you think that Moo is a real cult then there's probably not a mafia B, or if there is they are also very handicapped.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby freezeblade » Fri May 17, 2019 9:50 pm UTC

Ok, After realizing that I don't have many reads this game, I began the task of beginning from the start, and taking notes on the way though.

I underestimated how long this would take. I made it 3.5 pages in, and realized I may not get to finish before the day is over at work.

Under the spoiler is a thought process though the first 4 pages or so, more for my own notes than anything.
Spoiler:
Sabrar
joke vote wam
Calls out SJ's OMGUS vote, FoS on SJ. Sees connection between Vic and BF.
thinks 3 scum would be too powerful
town-read on PW, directs to sucessful miller play.
Calls freezeblade out for not posting
Spec 8-2-1, scum day-chat. Little tiff with boomfrog

bessie
picks apart joke votes, but stands behind confirmation post analysis
calls out SJ rolefishing, specs 8-3, FoS on wam for claim, does not believe millers.
FoS jimbob (for challanging miller comments)
tiff with wam
lots of usual bessie content

Wam
votes Sabrar, claims kinda-miller, agrees with boomfrog's 8-3 spec (meta reasons)
definds kinda-miller claim, says has claimed enough.
has no town reads, has theory about bessie's setup spec, "wants to hear answers first"

moody7277
joke vote Peaceful Whale
Aligns with Sabrar, specs 7-3-1, 8-2-1.
reads bessie as town. wierded out by PW's T-S list, it's shady.
some analysis (usual moody tone)
T bessie, sabrar - SJ, PW S

Peaceful Whale
votes wam (does not believe miller claim) Jokes about being vanilla town "with a twist"
Same T-S list as boomfrog
Votes Boomfrog for "redirect towny attention and fire" (soaked in wine)

Vicarin
Specs 8-3, 8-2-1, or 7-2-2
Joke vote Boomfrog
Specs wam actually being "compulsive commuter" and doubles down on 8-3
unvote Boomfrog, votes SJ for incentive, asks about the daychat disbelief.
T moody, bessie, Jimbob - dimochat, SJ S
little tiff with Boomfrog

BoomFrog
Joke vote self, "Someone has to get mislynched D1, and this will let me get my analysis out of the way first thing."
Calls everyone doing setup spec useless. 8-3 spec (will explain after others)
tells others note to hint at powers
-1 to Sabrar, +1 to wam (calls town), asks bessie to explain disbelief in millers. Town Wam - Vicarin Scum
Explains spec of 8-3
attacks dim's list, saying top 3 scum are easy lynch

SuicideJunkie
OMGUS vote on Jimbob

jimbobmacdoodle
joke vote SuicideJunkie
Thinks powers are likely not "straight up amazing"
Specs 8-3, or 7-2-1 w/ indie (SK, Lynch leader, Jester, or non-standard. No survivor or traitor)
defends wam's miller claim.
Big analysis post (+ townie points)

dimochka
asks vicarin why not 7-2-1-1 (vic agrees it's possible)
analysis, T - Jimbob, Bessie - Freezeblade, PW - S


I'll continue going though, But just from the detailed re-read so far it cements my usual hate for D1, as the "content" is just folks trying to get a handle around the setup, speculating in the dark with their eyes closed, and scum acting like they are doing the same.

Hot takes are bessie acting...like bessie always does. Boomfrog is definitely acting a bit more nonchalant than usual , which is coming off as a bit scummier than usual. That combined with with my night result has me putting down the following vote:

vote: Boomfrog

I'll keep going, hopefully another post before EOD.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sat May 18, 2019 3:06 am UTC

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: @SJ - Please confirm with the mod whether a failure to get a result is distinguishable from being informed that there were no visitors. Sometimes there aren't.
Why did you feel the need to add that second sentence? Why not just let SuicideJunkie ask LaserGuy the question and report his answer? You don’t need to coach someone to tell the truth.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:
bessie wrote:I am skeptical of SuicideJunkie’s claim. If SuicideJunkie was roleblocked and wam is telling the truth, we have two roleblockers.
Why are you assuming that both roleblockers are Town aligned? Or do you believe that because town has a roleblocker, scum can't?
Both roleblockers?? Why are you assuming there are two roleblockers, or that I also think there are two roleblockers? I think that if your read my D2 content carefully (and there’s not a lot of it so far so it’s not like you’re buried in an avalanche of posts from me) you will find that I am questioning of the odds of two roleblockers.

Why was your post just oozing with reasons we should find SuicideJunkie townie?

freezeblade wrote:I'll continue going though, But just from the detailed re-read so far it cements my usual hate for D1, as the "content" is just folks trying to get a handle around the setup, speculating in the dark with their eyes closed, and scum acting like they are doing the same.
I’m curious as to why, if you hate D1 so much and are so convinced that nothing useful comes from D1 that you practically refuse to participate on D1, did you now, on D2, decide to read D1? Why not just read D2? Why not read and comment on D1 like, on D1?

freezeblade wrote:Hot takes are bessie acting...like bessie always does. Boomfrog is definitely acting a bit more nonchalant than usual , which is coming off as a bit scummier than usual.
Excuse me, but are you freaking serious? You do one analysis post in the entire game and your conclusion is...... bessie is bessie and BoomFrog is scummy? You spent your entire available game time to end up with a summary of five years of xkcd meta???

viewtopic.php?p=4290764#p4290764
cemper93 in Newbie New Year wrote:Back when I played here more regularly, BoomFrog was known as the archetypal excellent scum player and bessie was known as the towniest, in particular known for her excellent analysis. So yes, I was kind of going by a dead metagame here.


[note: see also bessie’s standard Woof-Grrr based on absolutely no content from this game whatsoever under spoiler #2]

And why even analyze BoomFrog? Wasn’t he already confirmed scum from your point of view?

Sabrar wrote:
freezeblade wrote:I'll have a larger post very soon, with a T-S list.
Please do this before the weekend.
Oh well. Unfortunate freezeblade didn't get to that ordered list.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat May 18, 2019 4:59 am UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: do you have updated setup-spec?
You missed this...

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat May 18, 2019 5:31 am UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Well, I tried to snoop on what Dimochka was up to, but got No Result.
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@SJ - Please confirm with the mod whether a failure to get a result is distinguishable from being informed that there were no visitors. Sometimes there aren't.

I think SJ implied Tracker/Follower of some sort. Why would you assume Watcher?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sat May 18, 2019 5:02 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
Sabrar wrote:@bessie: do you have updated setup-spec?
You missed this...
Yes I did miss it. I saw it and meant to reply that I was thinking about it, and then I didn’t.

I still like 8-3.

Apps of Destruction
Abilities: Day chat, factional one-shot night kill, cops as “App” to investigations.
App #1 Vicarin: Vote Thief
App #2: Unblockable day kill (one-shot?)
App #3: Still thinking about it. Unrequited lover?

I think that everyone that is focusing on the one-shot kill and theorizing that there must be another killing faction because hey it’s mafia so night kills are required is not considering how strong a vote thief is in a small game. If Vicarin made it to the end, it would be as good as a NK.

I’m still thinking about as to whether or not Church of Moo is a cult or separate faction. wam has claimed town, and BoomFrog as claimed his alignment didn’t change (but both would have made these claims regardless). Interesting though that wam claims he will cop as just Moo, but BoomFrog copped as non-town and Moo.

I’m thinking about 7-2-1-1 and 7-2-2 and 6-2-2-1. I have a lot of scum reads right now.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sat May 18, 2019 6:14 pm UTC

Quite a crazy Friday week for me at the office. I was super-thankful that it was Friday on the drive home on the 13th, and then was incredibly disappointed that the next day was Tuesday. (Apparently I said "see you on Monday" to my cube neighbour on the way out)
bessie wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Well, I tried to snoop on what Dimochka was up to, but got No Result.
Do you think you were roleblocked? If dimochka had no night action you should still have a result.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@SJ - Please confirm with the mod whether a failure to get a result is distinguishable from being informed that there were no visitors. Sometimes there aren't.

bessie wrote:Why did you feel the need to add that second sentence? Why not just let SuicideJunkie ask LaserGuy the question and report his answer? You don’t need to coach someone to tell the truth.

Boomfrog has a good point on this:
I can confirm that I have asked the mod. :)

Bessie too: jimbob thinks I am a watcher?
(Ninjaed by Sabrar who thinks the opposite)


For town's sanity; from my perspective, it is possible that the Moos have the only roleblock.
wam wrote:Moody I am definitely town!

I had nightmare that maybe I was the only Town player, and the game setup was 1-3-3-3-1 or 1-2-2-2-2 or something. It was a bit silly.


bessie wrote:Interesting though that wam claims he will cop as just Moo, but BoomFrog copped as non-town and Moo.

That is very interesting actually. If I were to drink the cool-aid and eat the burger, would I cop as "Town and Moo"?


Laserguy: Should the players list in the OP be updated with Somitomi?

Also, with a Deadline on Tuesday, I think we need to hear more from Dimochka and Somitomi soon.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sat May 18, 2019 8:04 pm UTC

somitomi, I appreciate you replacing, and I know you’re busy, but we need some content. Deadline is Tuesday 10am (my time). I will have very little time Monday night, and I will 100% certain not be available for the four hours before deadline (I can make a quick check at 5:30am my time, like I did on D1).

moody is keeping his distance from me.

freezeblade probably won’t be posting until Monday, so I won’t be interacting with him.

SuicideJunkie is not helping town.

BoomFrog is claimed non-town.

wam will be traveling for the two days before deadline.

jimbob should be posting Sunday afternoon my time.

dimochka will hopefully have something by Sunday.

Sabrar, I’m going out for a few hours and won’t be back until you are asleep (as if you ever sleep).


SuicideJunkie wrote:Boomfrog has a good point on this:
I can confirm that I have asked the mod. :)
Yes but it’s already too late to unclaim. You claimed you targeted dimochka, and you received a result of “No Result”. At this point it is scummy for you not to clarify, and gives the appearance that you know you previously slipped. Also interesting that you would justify not clarifying based on the advice of claimed non-town.

SuicideJunkie wrote:For town's sanity; from my perspective, it is possible that the Moos have the only roleblock.
Well dimochka soft claimed he was not a commuter, so town!you had to be roleblocked to get “No Result”.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sat May 18, 2019 8:05 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:Bessie too: jimbob thinks I am a watcher?
What was this a response to?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby somitomi » Sat May 18, 2019 8:20 pm UTC

SuicideJunkie wrote:I note the Apps weren't allowed to use their kill last night, and a withholding is not unheard of (I got fooled by that in SS)

Do you mean you come up church of moo to cops? Or do you explain your faith to EVERYONE who visits?

I think wam explains the Church to one person he targets with the roleblock.
Sabrar wrote:
BoomFrog wrote:Also, rereading the role PM, it says that my protection is considered before other forms of protection. So there's probably at least one other protective or bulletproof role out there, which means there's probably a full NK faction.
This seems just you modifying your claim to fit with wam's issues with it.

Having reread D2 I now see your point and it does make sense.
bessie wrote:I am skeptical of SuicideJunkie’s claim. If SuicideJunkie was roleblocked and wam is telling the truth, we have two roleblockers.

If everyone's telling the truth, we have two roleblockers and neither of them can account for the missing NK(s).
jimbobmacdoodle wrote:My thoughts on SJ have firmed up a bit. I don't think SJ is scum. Whilst scum!SJ might try to leak fake role information, I'm inclined to think that he isn't faking it.

There's also the risk of the claimed target counterclaiming, which is sort of what actually happened.
dimochka wrote:Without getting into details, I have no idea whatsoever why SJ didn't get a result. I don't think this automatically implies that he's lying (and actually put the chances of him lying here at very low) but that tells me that some other powers were likely at play. Will reanalyze my list to see who might have had it out for me (or the complete opposite).

Why do you think this information means a lower chance of SJ lying?
Sabrar wrote:We have 3 main issues (which overlap to some degree).

1. What is BoomFrog? Survivor/SK/Mafia A/Mafia B/Cult recruit/etc.
2. Who is/are Vicarin's buddy/buddies?
3. Why is there a discrepancy between SuicideJunkie's and dimochka's claims?

I would like to hear somitomi's opinion first on all 3. I will probably post my thoughts on Sunday.

1) His initial denial about the Church of Moo pinged me a little considering the claimed a rather town-friendly power in the end. Could he and wam be in a cult? I'm on the fence about this, based on the various setups proposed so far I don't see anything to rule it out. On one hand I think cult!leader wam would've kept quiet and let BoomFrog fall where he may, but it might be a pretty sneaky gambit. There's also the issue of why recruit BoomFrog of all people or that wam's early D1 claim would then necessarily be a gambit too (in this scenario copping wam would presumably return "not town/Church of Moo"). On the whole, this seems unlikely to me, ergo wam's likely town.
Mafia/SK!BoomFrog would nicely explain why nobody died during the night and (factoring in that ping I got) this seems probable. Mafia seems a bit more likely than SK, but I don't know if BoomFrog was Vicarin's buddy or there are two mafia factions.
2) I don't know, moody or dimochka seem possible based on a glance at the end of D1.
Speaking of moody, whatever happened to the chess moves thing?
3) Hard to say without knowing what SJ's ability exactly is (@SJ: don't tell me), but I don't see why SJ would lie about that result (see response to Jimbob above). So there's another roleblock out there or dimochka is lying.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby BoomFrog » Sat May 18, 2019 9:58 pm UTC

I'm pressed for time in RL. Friday through the weekend is not a good time for mafia for me anymore. Quick TtoS list to get my thoughts out there:

Wam - His play has perfectly fit how he should play his role from a town POV. I knew he was town D1 and my opinion hasn't changed, he's continued to use his power in a townie way D2. And the role fits LaserGuys sense of humor.
FreezeBlade - Some chance of one of the scum teams having a cop, but fairly unlikely. Probably town.
JimBob - I think scum JimBob would have been content to let me take the heat and be the big distraction D2 so I have a solid town lean on him

Somitomi - Not enough content. Mild town lean leftover from Peaceful Whale. Most recent post looks like solid logic for someone catching up.
Moody - passive and happy to lynch the easy target. Exactly what he'd do as town or scum. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Waited a long time to weigh in D2 feels on the scummy side. Also throwing shade at wam, is reasonably paranoid, but is either a lazy knee-jerk read or is scum trying to line up future misslynches.
Suicide Junkie - Enough of a wildcard that it's possible he is scum. My theory at the end of D1 was that he was a compulsive loud vigilante. That's proven to be completely false. We have yet to see the claimed ugly side of his role and he is far too eager to claim the townie seeming side of his role. I still think he is town, but I'm less certain then I am of other reads

Bessie - Bessie has been very reserved, lots of poking but not sinking her teeth into anything. She also voted against the Vic lynch, so is a likely candidate for scummate there.
Sabrar - I still haven't seen any real content from Sabrar. He's been very passive, with only lightly prodding other players. His one definitive move was to seal Vics fate so he's not on the Apps team. Still feels generally scummy though.
domichka - Still had lazy reads D1, avoided a real vote D1 by voting for me. Convenient as scum no matter what. And didn't come in to change to a real vote even though he knew there's no traction for it. RL excuses him for D2, but he is happy to go with the easy lynch, and is also assuming cult even though wam's been super townie. Still scummy.

Vote domichka

I'm sure I'll be the lynch today anyway. I don't blame you guys, I should have known I'd get copped N1 and just claimed survivor right off the bat D1. Oh well.
Ciao.
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby moody7277 » Sun May 19, 2019 12:12 am UTC

wam wrote:Moody I am definitely town!


So that makes Church of Moo roleblocking recruiting mason? Still have you somewhere on the townie side of the street.

dimochka
Spoiler:
D1
post 1: four faction setup, ideas on posting oddities of me and Sabrar
post 2: explains setup spec as based on paradigm for the game, quick reads with jimbob and bessie towniest, PW and freezeblade scummiest

Here's where my reads post goes. Not a lot that I based it on other than his non-standard setup spec.

post 3: promise of more content
post 4: responses to bessie, doesn't metagame mods, looking up scum!bessie from SS2017
post 5: various responses, comparison of T->S to "easy lynch list", parallels jimbob's thinking re SJ, reads kind of level
post 6: revised T->S, SJ and BoomFrog move to scummiest, underline vote for SJ.
post 7: post by post on BoomFrog, votes BF
post 8: registers intent to be on at deadline
post 9: question about jargon
post 10: votals notice
post 11: response to Sabrar about BF's vote.
post 12: satisfied with BF's vote

reasonable amount of content, I agree with most of his positions. Very little about Vicarin specifically, no banter with him, only gives a middle of the road read on him.

D2
post 13: BF lynch reasonable. little revision to his setup spec. confused by SJ's result, has a charitable view in that third party stuff happened


Looks townie for the most part except for that lack of interaction with Vicarin. Conclusion: +1 to +3
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sun May 19, 2019 2:48 am UTC

somitomi wrote:So there's another roleblock out there or dimochka is lying.
So which do you think it is?

BoomFrog wrote:Bessie - Bessie has been very reserved, lots of poking but not sinking her teeth into anything. She also voted against the Vic lynch, so is a likely candidate for scummate there.
I've been busy. And I announced ahead of time that I wouldn't be available in the final hours of the day. But ok. Let’s see where I'm at.

bessie's detailed setup spec:

Apps of Destruction
Abilities: Day chat, factional one-shot night kill, cops as “something non human” to investigations.
App #1 Vicarin: Vote Thief
App #2 SuicideJunkie: Unblockable one-shot day kill
App #3 BoomFrog: Unrequited lover of bessie*

*Second choice is Sabrar. He’s scum reading both of us, but not strongly. Guess he doesn’t want wither of us lynched or night killed. But I’ll be sad if it’s Sabrar, I like the idea of BoomFrog dying of unrequited love for me me me.

BoomFrog being a one-way lover that dies if his lover dies is not too far off from what he claimed. And I’m more suspicious now that SuicideJunkie is the one-shot day kill, since BoomFrog is trying to set him up for a vigilante claim here:
BoomFrog wrote:Suicide Junkie - Enough of a wildcard that it's possible he is scum. My theory at the end of D1 was that he was a compulsive loud vigilante. That's proven to be completely false. We have yet to see the claimed ugly side of his role and he is far too eager to claim the townie seeming side of his role. I still think he is town, but I'm less certain then I am of other reads


Sabrar, the reason jimbob thinks SuicideJunkie is a watcher, not a tracker, is his opening post:
SuicideJunkie wrote:There is a fine line between a Neighbourhood Watch and Vigilantism. And that is the point where you start wearing a cape.


Backup guess at the setup:

Apps of Destruction Mafia: Vicarin, SuicideJunkie
Mafia #2: somitomi, moody7277
Indie: BoomFrog

In both setups, the Church of Moo is the McGuffin.

Also in both, it is mod-confirmed that the Apps have a kill available tonight.

Vote: SuicideJunkie


moody’s still ignoring me. :(

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sun May 19, 2019 4:00 am UTC

BoomFrog wrote:domichka - Still had lazy reads D1, avoided a real vote D1 by voting for me. Convenient as scum no matter what. And didn't come in to change to a real vote even though he knew there's no traction for it.
So, I'm curious as to why you're scum reading dimochka for not changing his vote? You’re not scum reading moody for not changing to one of the wagons, even though there was no traction on Peaceful Whale.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 7:13 am UTC

@bessie: in your setup-spec the only way to prevent a 'Follow the Cop' strategy is to day-kill the cop, right? Unless Town doesn't have access to a Doc but I really doubt that (or if BoomFrog is actually telling the truth). So if freezeblade is not dead today then there is something wrong with it (unless freezeblade bluffed the ability but then we don't have a Cop either so wam's claim does not makes sense).

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 9:54 am UTC

Some disjointed thoughts to begin
Spoiler:
- biggest priority is to reduce the kill-potential if possible because that is the only way to ensure a second Cop-check (there must be a mechanic to prevent 'Follow the Cop' so freezeblade is most likely dead tonight otherwise).
- just going from the number of possibilities BoomFrog not being Survivor is much more likely than him telling the truth.
- lynching BoomFrog is most likely ok, though if he's in Mafia B then kill-potential remains the same.
- if somehow he is telling the truth then killing him is detrimental as that is as much of a town-friendly indie that there could be.
- if wam is Cult Leader then BoomFrog can't be Mafia or SK (at least not with moderate level of bastardry imo)
- conversely if BoomFrog flips Mafia/SK then we can trust wam
- still, it is weird that wam cops as Moo only while the recruits give alignment as well
- as mentioned before freezeblade's info is confirmed, his ability is not (if he is either wam's or BoomFrog's buddy then he could have faked it)
- I doubt we have two Trackers so SuicideJunkie's claim is suspicious to me, especially as we would need two roleblockers as well (unless dimochka is lying)

Possible setups
Spoiler:
- 8-3: we're in extremely good shape here as we only need to find 1 more scum and they don't have unlimited nk. Almost anything we do leads to a win.
- 7-3-1: For balance purposes the 1 indie needs to be town-friendly. If it's not BoomFrog then he should claim now so we can safely lynch BF.
- 7-2-2: lynching BoomFrog is still the obvious choice, but we're still missing a blocked kill from N1 (unless BoomFrog is in Mafia B but then his point of him not carrying out the nk is valid). SuicideJunkie is our best bet here.
- 7-2-1-1: possible Arsonist/Poisoner? BoomFrog is quite likely to be indie here, but it's kind of weird if noone had a kill N1. Or BoomFrog is normal SK (otherwise we're back to missing the blocked kill). Also see the next point.
- 6-2-2-1: if we're gaming the mod then this is extremely unlikely. All of LaserGuy's setups so far were straightforward X-Y, with no indies or multiball. Otherwise my point at 7-3-1 still stands, even more strongly.

Vic's buddy
Spoiler:
- assuming a weak scum-team of 2 then bussing early is a losing proposition, you just concede too much advantage for a small townie-credit. And you won't even gain that credit if town thinks is multiball (and Vicarin was definitely thinking of that possibility). Therefore jimbob, SJ and wam are not Vic's buddy here.
BoomFrog is still possible if he thought 12 minutes before deadline that lynch was determined, although BF's attack on Vic prior to that would seem to contradict this. Also I have an authentic Sabrar meta-readTM why BF is unlikely to be in Vic-s team.
sidenote to bessie: vote block is much weaker than a standard nk, I would say it is on the level of a 1-shot nk.
bessie is possible, the biggest indicator would be her tying the votals with SJ and never moving on Vicarin despite the fact that she agreed with me on Vic's false townie-behavior here. However that can also be explained by her standard tunneling and her interaction with Vic seemed natural to me otherwise.
freezeblade is not Vic's buddy here, either because he's Cop or because he's buddy with someon else (his info cannot come from any other possibility).
dimochka: good possibility. Vic had him scummy at first because of little content but moved him up soon after. dimochka found Vic townie at first, later downgraded to neutral. Later Vic didn't like dimochka's list but still never made a push on him. Otherwise very little interaction.
PW / somitomi: possible, PW put Vicarin is townie-ish, although Vic put PW as second most scummy. However there was no real chance of PW getting lynched D1 so it was safe place. Very little interaction, also it doesn't look like somitomi spent too much effort in trying to find Vic's buddy
moody: less likely. vic put him as most townie (which was tbh almost general consensus). Their interaction does nnot feel forced, though again is there isn't too much of it. Somewhat similar place to dimochka and PW but generally I feel better about moody.

- if it's a scum-team of 3 then early bussing becomes more probable (though I still don't think it is a good idea). There is a good chance that at least one of the 2 buddies was somewhat inactive D1 and I feel more strongly about the {dimochka, PW} possibilities.

SuicideJunkie vs dimochka
Spoiler:
- the claims from wam and freezeblade tie together (provided our understanding is correct why BF was 'not moving'). Therefore it is unlikely that wam was redirected to SJ and I doubt we have 2 roleblockers. The only way I could see this if scum!bessie rb-d SJ in order to push his lynch today, noone else had the motive to do so.
- SJ is not very forthcoming, just hinting at the ability leaves himself a lot of leeway about the future claim. If this is multiball then I think there is a very high chance he's scum.

Looking at the above if you're a town-friendly indie then you should immediately claim. I will probably not accept any indie claims after D2.
Our best bet currently is to lynch BoomFrog today, his flip is very valuable (if he's lying).

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sun May 19, 2019 4:13 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:@bessie: in your setup-spec the only way to prevent a 'Follow the Cop' strategy is to day-kill the cop, right?
I can think of some possibilities, but I didn’t want to discuss my town power setup spec too much.

Sabrar wrote:- I doubt we have two Trackers so SuicideJunkie's claim is suspicious to me, especially as we would need two roleblockers as well (unless dimochka is lying)
I kinda suspect SuicideJunkie messed up his attempt at a false claim, and made the classic error of confusing Tracker and Watcher, I’ve done it myself (almost screwing up night results for Meta Mafia) and I think Madge has too (Secret Santa 2016). It doesn’t matter, he can’t have No Result unless he was roleblocked. dimochka wasn’t untargetable on N1 (barring other powers).

Sabrar wrote:sidenote to bessie: vote block is much weaker than a standard nk, I would say it is on the level of a 1-shot nk.
Which would help balance the 3 player mafia team. Which is part of my overall thoughts about the setup. For 8-3, town only has two mislynches, so three “kills” would be enough.

Sabrar wrote: bessie is possible, the biggest indicator would be her tying the votals with SJ and never moving on Vicarin despite the fact that she agreed with me on Vic's false townie-behavior here. However that can also be explained by her standard tunneling and her interaction with Vic seemed natural to me otherwise.
You need account for the state of the game (and the state of bessie) when I voted. Voting and replying to your insult was 100% certain going to be my last opportunity to post, as I previously announced. I tied the vote at 3-3, with more than four hours to go. Five other players were not on one of the main wagons, and a few others had already indicated they would be online to prevent ties. Note that SuicideJunkie was still a viable lynch option.

I think moody’s vote is much more suspicious than mine, but meh, I appear to be the only one that is thinks this.

Sabrar, have you considered that in my proposed setup spec, that between Vicarin and SuicideJunkie, SuicideJunkie has the more valuable power?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 4:44 pm UTC

bessie wrote:Voting and replying to your insult was 100% certain going to be my last opportunity to post,
Could you please clarify what you perceived as insult there? Because that was never my intention, even if I sometimes enjoy pulling your chain.

bessie wrote:Sabrar, have you considered that in my proposed setup spec, that between Vicarin and SuicideJunkie, SuicideJunkie has the more valuable power?
Not really. Just because your team-mate has a better power doesn't mean that you need to start them bussing early d1. But I can technically see why the votals would evolve the way they did, even including BoomFrog's double switch.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby bessie » Sun May 19, 2019 5:23 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
bessie wrote:Voting and replying to your insult was 100% certain going to be my last opportunity to post,
Could you please clarify what you perceived as insult there? Because that was never my intention, even if I sometimes enjoy pulling your chain.
Just your agreement that I am being honest in declaring myself a pathetic and miserable creature, your reminder that this is not a recent development, and that my life will likely continue to suck in the future. But you yanking my chain is among the bright spots, so please continue to do so. :wink:

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby SuicideJunkie » Sun May 19, 2019 5:55 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:Bessie too: jimbob thinks I am a watcher?
What was this a response to?

I'm not actually sure: on review I can't see what prompted it.
I may have brainfarted and re-read your comment a second time as Bessie's?



@Boomfrog vs Bessie vs leakiness
Meh, I'll just have to go back to being me and not worry about it.

Since there still seems to be problematic confusion on the issue:
I have some theories on the No Result.
A) Dimochka is an invalid target for me, either temporarily or permanently.
B) No Result is the result.
C) I was roleblocked directly.
D) Splash effect from something on Dimochka.

No Result should be, on balance, a slight negative to my opinions on Dimochka, but lack of evidence of towniness is not evidence of scumminess.
I wish we knew more, and I still want to hear that review. Should be good content.

somitomi wrote:
SuicideJunkie wrote:I note the Apps weren't allowed to use their kill last night, and a withholding is not unheard of (I got fooled by that in SS)

Do you mean you come up church of moo to cops? Or do you explain your faith to EVERYONE who visits?

I think wam explains the Church to one person he targets with the roleblock.
The part about using the power is clear, but the context was about investigations on wam, rather than wam's recruitment process.

PS:
Bessie, you're not supposed to try and get your name on the list twice over me.
Consolation puppers:
Spoiler:
puppers.jpg

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby somitomi » Sun May 19, 2019 6:41 pm UTC

moody7277 wrote:
wam wrote:Moody I am definitely town!


So that makes Church of Moo roleblocking recruiting mason? Still have you somewhere on the townie side of the street.

It's definitely not mason, members aren't confirmed tow (or they would've said so) and I don't see any mention of private chat between wam and BF either.
bessie wrote:
somitomi wrote:So there's another roleblock out there or dimochka is lying.
So which do you think it is?

That's the rub, isn't it? I'm leaning towards the second one, but that's mostly setup speculation, dimochka didn't leave much of an impression on me. Will reread later.
bessie wrote:bessie's detailed setup spec:

Apps of Destruction
Abilities: Day chat, factional one-shot night kill, cops as “something non human” to investigations.
App #1 Vicarin: Vote Thief
App #2 SuicideJunkie: Unblockable one-shot day kill
App #3 BoomFrog: Unrequited lover of bessie*

That's pretty detailed for the info we have and your apparent certainty about the 8-3 setup makes me uneasy. Additionally it doesn't seem like a very well balanced setup, although I know little about balancing.
Sabrar wrote:- still, it is weird that wam cops as Moo only while the recruits give alignment as well

It is weird, but is that actually confirmed? Maybe wam's role PM just pointed out that cops will know about the Church of Moo without telling exactly what result they get.
SuicideJunkie wrote:Since there still seems to be problematic confusion on the issue:
I have some theories on the No Result.
A) Dimochka is an invalid target for me, either temporarily or permanently.
B) No Result is the result.
C) I was roleblocked directly.
D) Splash effect from something on Dimochka.

So which one is most likely in your opinion and why? What do you mean by "no result is the result" for that matter?
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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 6:46 pm UTC

somitomi wrote:
Sabrar wrote:- still, it is weird that wam cops as Moo only while the recruits give alignment as well
It is weird, but is that actually confirmed? Maybe wam's role PM just pointed out that cops will know about the Church of Moo without telling exactly what result they get.
It's what wam claimed:
wam wrote:The Miller comment was because I come up church of moo only to all investigations. At least that's how I read my role PM.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 6:56 pm UTC

wam wrote:Just as a heads up I am travelling Monday and Tuesday so will be very limited in posting in the run up to deadline.
So why haven't you posted during the weekend instead?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby Sabrar » Sun May 19, 2019 6:58 pm UTC

dimochka wrote:Will reanalyze my list to see who might have had it out for me (or the complete opposite).
When can we expect this? Or any other content?

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby moody7277 » Sun May 19, 2019 7:04 pm UTC

I think bessie being obsessed with my opinion of PW/somi is cute.

*whisper whisper*

No, Cynical View, I am not putting that down.

SuicideJunkie

Spoiler:
D1
post 1: his tragic origin story
post 2:
I'm town in exactly half the games I've played, so I suppose my meta is bad,
also RV jimbob

He doesn't have enough playing time for a statistically significant universe, so the utility of this statement is small

post 3: role spec about mediocre powers
post 4: response to BF about hinting at powers, wonders if power is "meant to die early"
post 5: wam might be gambiting with his claim, flip response to Vic about his leaking details

At this point, all I can tell is that he thinks his power is disposable because of downsides. Some people apparently think even such veiled hints are too much, maybe because it allows scum to strategize.

post 6: some responses, points out people's opinions of his posting is contradictory

I needed somewhere to drop a vote, and someone RVS a known (to me) townie is as good as anywhere.


Wait, what? I'm thinking he just means he's reading/meta jimbob as townie, but Cynical View thinks this is a scum slip.

post 7: admits he's playing different, weird point about GF, unvotes. reads list, BF and wam townie, Vic sketchy, lots of fudgy middle. votes Vicarin

Early vote on Vicarin means it is nearly zero probability of a bus, so no teammates there. This was also where my first reads post went which had him as low enough to be voteable.

post 8: some responses, trying to clear up points about his role being assigned randomly, to Vic about his reads post saying it's the best he can do
post 9&10: renews his point from post 4 about his role being meant to be mislynched

I give LaserGuy too much credit for that to be the straight facts.

post 11: still focusing on his lynch being highly likely given the role, anyone who had it would be in the same position, hedges a little by speculating other town roles may have similar drawbacks.
post 12: discussing math with Sabrar, townie etiquette with bessie, opinion of her declines, response to wam's arguments against him is more sarcasm weighted
post 13: lays out his plan for N1 and D2

Turns out he got point 1 and maybe point 2 right

post 14: not so famous not so last words

D2
post 15: claims "snooped" dimochka with no result, revised setup spec, wants to posit lack of death means he's town, but says multiball rules that out

a. no idea what he's supposed to mean by "snooped", may be cleared up further along, b. I'd say that his "clearly town" logic is disproved a lot earlier than it being a multiball setup

post 16: town win condition -> multiball
post 17: radically specific assumptions about what went on N1, retracts his statement from post 16, suspicious of Church of Moo
post 18: tries to backtrack on an odd statement from post 17, likely 2 kills out there, cult is scary
post 19: asks wam to clarify point about investigating him, continued discussion with Sabrar from post 18
post 20: follows with idea BF fudged his explanation
post 21: responses to people and asks the mod about his no result claim, spec about how joining Church of Moo affects being invesigated
post 22: analysis of his no result on dimochka with 3/4 of the points being dimochka's fault (indirectly), concludes he should lower his opinion of dim because of it, clarifying explanation of wam's power


Well, if you start with the hypothesis of "townie frustrated with the utility of his role" you can explain quite a lot of his D1 behavior. The D2 stuff where he claims no result about dimochka is still somewhat confusing because I don't know whether he was talking about tracking dim or watching him; directly asking would be rolefishing, so no dice there. Conclusion: +2.5
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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.


BoomFrog wrote:I still have no idea what town moody really looks like.

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Re: Unlikely Superheroes (Day 2)

Postby wam » Sun May 19, 2019 7:51 pm UTC

Sabrar wrote:
wam wrote:Just as a heads up I am travelling Monday and Tuesday so will be very limited in posting in the run up to deadline.
So why haven't you posted during the weekend instead?


Because weekend has been busy too and am running out of data on phone!

Yes role PM states I come up at church of moo. People I convert come up as alignment and church of moo.

Realised I havent stated this but reading between the lines that may also apply to watchers/trackers.

Further thoughts I agree with Bessie about moody's votes day 1 but havent had a chance to go back and re read it.

Somi seems to be slowly getting into the game.

Sabrar posting seems to be coming from a townnperspectiv.

Bessie is locked into her role spec but this is nai for Bessie.
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