2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

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Mutex
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby Mutex » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:33 am UTC

Well, it means Dems need to flip 4 seats in 2020 if they want to take the Senate. Is that doable?

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thunk
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby thunk » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:08 pm UTC

Mutex wrote:Well, it means Dems need to flip 4 seats in 2020 if they want to take the Senate. Is that doable?

Possibly. Who knows.

For fun I decided to calculate the tipping-point districts based on preliminary election data available so far and Dave Wasserman's compilation thereof. This is incomplete--many permissive mail-ballot states have a long way to go before they finish counting, and Maine only has the primary vote tabulated so far (not the two-party preferred). But here's districts 180 to 255:

Spoiler:
Image
Image


So far, the tipping-point (218th) district is CA-25 but this will change as ballots continue to be counted there. The next on the list, fittingly, is MI-08-- Nate Silver's home district.
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby mosc » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:10 pm UTC

Opus_723 wrote:And the Arizona seat has been called for the Democrat. Considering all of the "worst map for any party in decades" talk, a net loss of 2 seats seems pretty rosy for the Democrats. Just imagine how this year would have looked if Clinton were president. Republicans might have gotten a supermajority.

This is so friggin' true.
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sardia
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby sardia » Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:12 pm UTC

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/15/politics ... index.html
Did anybody think that Nelson would go better then gilum in Florida, preelection? Gilum was a better speaker, and Nelson got a ton of criticism for his lackluster campaign.... And yet Nelson is the only one with a chance to win a recount, while gilum is in far worse shape. The margin of error vs perception makes you look stupid sometimes.

PS Mia Love in Utah is probably going to win, while Kim in CA is probably going to lose. This caps the Democratic house gains at+38.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby eran_rathan » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:48 am UTC

Poliquin lost to Golden in RCV voting in Maine.

Crybaby lawsuit is still pending, but given that the judge refused to halt the RCV count, I think its safe to say Poliquin lost.

Dems +1.

http://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/15/p ... ion-nears/
https://bangordailynews.com/2018/11/15/ ... ice-count/
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby Thesh » Fri Nov 16, 2018 2:51 am UTC

Summum ius, summa iniuria.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby eran_rathan » Fri Nov 16, 2018 4:02 am UTC

If you read the first article I posted, it mentions the judge refusing to stop the RCV count while allowing the lawsuit to proceed.

It's at the bottom of page 2 of Judge Walker's decision.
http://mediad.publicbroadcasting.net/p/ ... 323964.pdf

It's also mentioned in the article that you posted.
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thunk
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby thunk » Wed Nov 21, 2018 7:17 pm UTC

Update to my post from last week on margins:
Spoiler:
https://i.imgur.com/zvuRsn8.png

Not much changed, really. As I predicted, the new tipping-point district is MI-08 at 3.83%. This is about 4% less than the national House margin of 7.8% 8.0% (this may still change as 1 million ballots are left to be processed in California).
Late-arriving results from other states made it so that at least 5 Democrats lost by margins of less than 1 percent--most notably Nate McMurray in NY-27 who just barely could not oust the indicted Chris Collins. One Democrat (Ben McAdams, UT-04) won by such a margin after same-day registered ballots were counted in Salt Lake City, and two such races remain too close to call (Valadao/Cox in CA-21, and Woodall/Bourdeaux in GA-07 which is being recounted recount is done; no significant change from earlier results favoring Woodall).
Fun fact: There are 17 Michaels/Mikes in the new Congress, the most of any one name, it seems. 13 of these are Republicans, which is equal to the total number of women the serving in the GOP's caucus from 2019.
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sardia
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby sardia » Sat Dec 01, 2018 1:27 am UTC

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/wh ... ouse-race/
Rumors are swirling that the Republicans in North Carolina 9th committed electoral voter fraud by manipulating absentee ballots. No hard evidence yet, just affidavits and statistical anomalies. The AP has uncalled the race, and the board has refused to certify. 538 has downgraded this from likely republican to lean republican.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby WriteBrainedJR » Sat Dec 01, 2018 3:53 am UTC

Wait, the allegations are that Republicans committed voter fraud? Aren't the Republicans always the ones making noise about how to prevent voter fraud?

There should be a word for things like this...

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sardia
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby sardia » Sat Dec 01, 2018 4:08 am UTC

WriteBrainedJR wrote:Wait, the allegations are that Republicans committed voter fraud? Aren't the Republicans always the ones making noise about how to prevent voter fraud?

There should be a word for things like this...

The funny thing is that this isn't the first time NC has this issue. This American Life covered it a few years back. https://www.thisamericanlife.org/606/ju ... /act-two-0
After this year’s election, Republicans in North Carolina went out looking for cases of voter fraud - all over the state. It was hard to find, hard to prove—until they stumbled across what could have been the best present ever: a seemingly clear-cut case of Democrats out to rig the election. Producer Zoe Chace went to Bladen County, N.C. to investigate. (18 minutes)
The thing is, this fraud with voting isn't the kind of fraud that the GOP is complaining(making up) about. The GOP is on the lookout for a moronic trump voter voting twice. This is shenanigans with absentee ballots, and how much "help" you can give. The 2018 case sounds much worse compared to the 2016 one.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby gd1 » Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:01 am UTC

Unfortunately, it's not just fraud going on:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l0w4FjJH8k4
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby ObsessoMom » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:05 pm UTC

Speaker Paul Ryan kicked stripped Rep. Duncan Hunter of all his committee assignments after he was indicted, but it looks as if the newly-re-elected Congressmember will continue showing up to vote until he's convicted (as seems very likely) and sentenced. He might not even resign after his conviction. Congress can expel him, though.

The trial date has been set for September 10, 2019.

Warning: article contains annoying misuse of the verb "loathe" for the adjective "loath."

What Will Happen If Congressman Duncan Hunter Is Convicted?

Spoiler:
Priya Sridhar of KPBS wrote:Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Alpine, and his wife Margaret are facing federal felony charges for allegedly spending $250,000 of campaign money on personal expenses. On Monday, a federal judge, prosecutors and defense attorneys agreed to a September 10, 2019 court date.

Hunter ran for re-election in the 50th Congressional District and is ahead of his Democratic opponent Ammar Campa-Najjar by just under four percentage points. Analysts say if Hunter is convicted, the House of Representatives would have to vote to expel him if he doesn't decide to step down on his own.

"Surprisingly, members of Congress can serve when they’re under trial, even after they’ve been convicted and can even serve while they’re in jail, so there's no automatic prohibition from serving in Congress," said Thad Kousser, professor of political science at UC San Diego. However, Kousser said, representatives cannot vote from behind bars. Congress has voted to expel members five times, the last time in 2002.

Hunter at first refused to give up his leadership and committee positions after he was indicted, but later stepped down after pressure from then-House Speaker Paul Ryan. But Kousser said he does not believe Hunter would do the same when the Democrats take control of the House in January. "There's no way that he's going to cave in to pressure from Speaker Nancy Pelosi to do that," Kousser said.

Kousser said if Hunter is convicted and the House votes to expel him, a special election could be held. But the timing could be an issue. The September trial is expected to take at least three weeks, and it could take a couple of months to organize a special election. Kousser said in such a case, a special election probably wouldn't take place until the spring of 2020, the same time a primary would be held for a regular election for representative for the 50th district.

"One reason why Democrats might be loathe to call a special election that’s different from any other election is that special elections are actually low turnout affairs... They bring people to the polls who are the most frequent voters, and those people tend to be Republican, so Democrats could be hamstringing themselves playing on a right-tilted playing field if they do call a special election," Kousser said.

idonno
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby idonno » Wed Dec 05, 2018 5:36 pm UTC

It isn't that surprising that "members of Congress can serve when they’re under trial" since anything else give the executive branch too much power to sideline representatives especially considering the president also appoints judges.

ijuin
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby ijuin » Wed Dec 05, 2018 6:39 pm UTC

On the other hand, it would serve Democrat interests for Hunter to remain in office as a non-voting member, since it would keep the Republicans down one House vote for the entire remainder of the term, and Hunter refusing to resign while incarcerated would boost Democrat odds of gaining his seat in 2020.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby idonno » Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:18 pm UTC

Yeah but the Rs would certainly vote to throw him out if he can't even provide a vote and the Ds choosing to keep him when the Rs want him gone would not play well politically.

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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby ObsessoMom » Wed Dec 05, 2018 8:34 pm UTC

ijuin wrote:and Hunter refusing to resign while incarcerated would boost Democrat odds of gaining his seat in 2020.


It's a very, very conservative district, though. Frankly, I was astonished that the Democratic challenger made it out of the open primary. (California has an open primary system, in which any voter can vote for any party's candidate in the primary, for all offices except President, and the final two--from any party--face off in November.) I expected two Republicans to make it to the November ballot.

The reason that there were not two Republican candidates on the November ballot, according to the Republican candidate who finished third in the June primary, was that Duncan Hunter's supporters (including his dad) bullied Republican donors into "standing by their man" and putting all their money on the incumbent, thus starving viable Republican challengers of funding. Hunter knew that his Republican challengers were a greater threat to him than any Democratic candidate could ever be, because many voters there will always vote against a liberal, no matter what.

Registered Voters in US Congressional 50 (Source: the California Secretary of State's September 7, 2018 report)
District Total: 367,137
Democratic Party: 98,615 (26.86%)
Republican Party: 150,492 (40.99%)
American Independent Party: 14,198 (3.87%)
Green Party: 1,278 (0.35%)
Libertarian: 3,761 (1.02%)
Peace and Freedom 980 (0.27%)
Unknown 921 (0.25%)
Other 1,146 (0.31%)
No Party Preference: 95,746 (26.08%)

The American Independent Party is linked to white supremacy, but the majority of their registered voters say, when asked, that they mistakenly chose the AIP instead of "No Party Preference" when they registered. That party appears first, alphabetically, on the voter registration form, and many voters think that that's how to declare themselves "independent" from any party. So I consider most of those to be in the NPP category.

Then again, that part of San Diego County has a reputation for racism. And my gut tells me that a lot of the "No Party Preference" voters are not Republicans only because the Republican Party isn't conservative enough for them. So I would expect more of them to vote Republican than Democratic.

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sardia
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Re: 2018 Midterm Elections Coverage

Postby sardia » Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:08 pm UTC

Quick update from 538 on the uncalled NC-9 race.
We're changing our rating on this race to Lean Prison.


https://mobile.twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC ... 56/photo/1
https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver53 ... 5924244481
I must admit, even though electoral fraud is horrible, this brought a smile to my face.


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