2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

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sardia
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2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby sardia » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:48 pm UTC

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/ ... ck-1176018
With over a year and a half to go, and we already see systemic fake organic viral disinformation campaigns on each of the Democratic candidates. Some are from the 2016 actors, but other players are in too. (North Korea, Iran, gop operatives) welcome to hell early.

God I hope Democrats and Independents hold it together.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Soupspoon » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:42 pm UTC

I wonder how much protest/third-party/abstained voting there will be.

A silly question to ask before we know who needs protesting against and who might be third-party (Trump? Cast loose for toxicity, but not quite enough toxicity to floor him?), but I've seen regret mentioned over last time.

PTW?

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby sardia » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:24 am UTC

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/03/ ... nt-1214831
Hardline anti rape politician struggles to hold own staff accountable for sexual harassment.
[bibliography][/bibliography]
The episode suggests a disconnect between the senator’s categorical public stance and her office’s private actions. It also points to broader problems with sexual harassment investigations on Capitol Hill: They are usually conducted internally by top aides with pre-existing relationships in the office rather than by an independent third party — a structure that Gillibrand has criticized in other institutions such as the military.


While this may not matter, it hurts for someone with 0 endorsements so far. Bernie has way more than her. Not sure if it was the Clinton backstabbing or what. (Side note, Clinton and Trump deserve to be in jail together for sex crimes)

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Chen » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:25 pm UTC

sardia wrote:Not sure if it was the Clinton backstabbing or what. (Side note, Clinton and Trump deserve to be in jail together for sex crimes)


Uh what?

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Mutex » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:28 pm UTC

Chen wrote:
sardia wrote:Not sure if it was the Clinton backstabbing or what. (Side note, Clinton and Trump deserve to be in jail together for sex crimes)


Uh what?

I think he means Bill, not Hillary.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby gd1 » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:47 pm UTC

Feeling the Bern. It's a good Bern.
There is no emotion more useless in life than hate.

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sardia
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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby sardia » Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:09 pm UTC

Correct. But the two are intertwined. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Cl ... llegations
It was a different time back then, but Bill Clinton's allegations aren't any better than Trump's. The power dynamics alone makes consensual sex very tricky if not impossible.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby CorruptUser » Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:11 pm UTC

Stupid question. Has anyone publicly accused Trump of rape?

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Dauric » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:05 pm UTC

CorruptUser wrote:Stupid question. Has anyone publicly accused Trump of rape?


Not sure about rape, but Trump admitted to sexual assault with his 'pussy grabbing' comment on the Access Hollywood tape. Did practically nothing to his campaign. Not sure that accusations of rape, or even a conviction for that matter, would shake his supporters.
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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Xeio » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:12 pm UTC

His ex wife, though she's now bound by a confidentiality agreement that prevents her from speaking about him and has said of her deposition "As a woman, I felt violated, as the love and tenderness, which he normally exhibited towards me, was absent. I referred to this as a ‘rape,’ but I do not want my words to be interpreted in a literal or criminal sense".

Make of that what you will.

There are more numerous accusations of sexual assault.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby sardia » Sun Mar 17, 2019 3:39 pm UTC

Beto has declared, but he looks weak. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/statu ... 2046153729
Beto’s such a weird candidate, and the press coverage of him is also so weird (obsessive but currently quite cynical but also prone to big mood swings) that I think it’s probably best to stick to objective benchmarks (e.g. polls, fundraising) when analyzing his chances. Is he signing top staffers? Getting endorsements? Drawing big audiences? These are fairly objective metrics too. Obviously, I'm in favor of objective measures generally, but there are some candidates for whom the "narrative" can get especially detached from reality. That's why IMO the fundraising numbers—not a great sign that he hasn't released them yet (although I guess we'll see)—are more important than the hot takes. And so are the polls over the next few weeks. It's not that they tell you *that* much, but I don't trust the alternatives.

I'm surprised who the leading people are in the horse race after stripping away likeability/positions/experience etc etc, and drop down to the (measurable, but rough estimates) basics. You end up with people like Biden, Bernie, and Kamala Harris? That's not who I expected to be leading right now. I wonder if Warren and Kirsten G. realize they are behind.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Thesh » Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:36 pm UTC

Yeah, I don't understand at all how people can be excited about him, other than he was a centrist with a chance of defeating a conservative, but he was still and underdog and he still lost. I just don't see what he brings to the national stage.
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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Mutex » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:36 pm UTC

He came close to beating Ted Cruz in Texas didn't he? That's pretty impressive even if he ended up losing. I can see why people might think he'd be a strong Centrist candidate who'd stand a chance of peeling away enough GOP voters to vote for him, or more likely, just not energising them enough to go out and vote for the GOP candidate.

But I can also see why left wing Dems aren't excited by him in the slightest.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Thesh » Sun Mar 17, 2019 6:58 pm UTC

That's tough to say, because a lot of that is anti-Trump backlash and differences in turnout due to enthusiasm:

2018: Cruz - 4,260,553, O'Rourke - 4,045,632; House: R - 4,135,359, D - 3,852,752
2016: House; R - 4,877,605, D - 3,160,535
2014: House; R - 2,684,592 D - 1,474,016
2012: Cruz - 4,440,137, Sadler - 3,194,927; House: 4,429,270, D - 2,949,900
Summum ius, summa iniuria.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby cyanyoshi » Sun Mar 17, 2019 7:28 pm UTC

It's kind of weird how much nationwide support Beto had in 2018 in the form of favorable media coverage and donations, maybe by having a realistic shot of getting Ted Cruz out of the Senate. Who knows if he can rise to the top of a crowded Democratic primary against contenders like Bernie and Kamala who seem to want the nomination a lot more, but he should have very good odds of becoming president if he does.

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Re: 2020 Presidency Campaign for the Future

Postby Thesh » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:07 pm UTC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xzojeicxB9w

That's the progressive take; tl:dw, he is getting so much positive coverage because he is supported by the oil industry, and corporate media sticks with corporate oil.

From the video, the only candidate who gets more oil and gas money is Ted Cruz:

https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/ ... hp?ind=E01
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